He's an outsider quoted at about 12-1, and now suddenly all the bookies have him as the favourite at 5-1 or lower.

What happened???

A leak of voteshare?

Some nutter going in and piling on crazy money across the board?

What day is AI on in the US? Maybe a good song choice, maybe an online poll or something..?

His odds have shortened because

He's drifted out to third favourite now with most bookies and betting sites at about 8/1

Oddschecker must be out-of-date, because he's showing up as the clear favourite on there, with nothing better than 5-1.

Where is the 8-1 to be had?

He's not really my favourite, but right now I'm more concerned about wanting it to be a great competition with everyone at their best, especially to make up for last year and the really dull winner.

Reading that spoiler blog:


Oddschecker may not be the most reliable of places. They did get confused not long ago by having two seperate odds - one for Lauren Alaina and another one for Lauren Alaina Suddeth.
Okay that one is quite understandabe since it's apparently her name. But I looked at it the other day and it had one Casey Abrams and one Casey Abrahams.
FAIL!

So is the contestant they now have at 5/1 James Durbin, James Durban, James Dobbin, James Oddbin, James Urban or James Turban?

Seems to all be correct today, although James Urban does have a nice ring to it.

LOL

Last year Oddschecker had Lee DeWyze under that name and under his full name of Leon DeWyze and two years ago they had a Kris Allen and a Chris Allen and an Adam Lambert and an Adam Lampard.

They all had totally different odds though the odds for all the proper spellings were shorter. Probably because of how much the odds at this stage are dependent on the amount of money that has been placed on any contestant.

This might be stupid - but does the bet still stand if you get good odds on a name that isn't the correct spelling>

Well, Oddschecker now has him as 4-1 favourite with most bookies.

You're not going to get 8-1 on him this week.

The reason for my confusion is that they are pre-taping the first two "live" shows this year (a day early), what with new judges and a new show director.

So the quality-of-performance leak is coming not one night but two nights before ITV1 broadcast.

Damn again. If I'd known that, maybe I'd have got in early this morning with some more on Durbin in double digits.

According to reports he gave the best performance this week by quite a way and the other main contenders weren't as good as the first week.

As I've not watched or followed American Idol before, just out of interest does anyone know what the shortest odds have ever been on a contestant or who the hottest favourite has been?


Yes, if it's obvious who/what the bet was intended to be on, e.g. if someone had bet on Matt Cardle to win XF but it had been spelt Cardie or Curdle or anything like that because there was no one else in the show it could possibly mean.

to win or to go through this week?

I can't remember many, pretty sure Carrie was a hot favourite (along with someone else?) all the way through from the beginning.
David Cook & probably Lee started off about where James did in the first week funnily enough.

The oddest year I remember was when Lakeisha (sp?) was a hot favourite and then just drifted and left. Melinda & Jordin took over the betting (I think Melinda was there or thereabouts anyway) till the last few left and Jordin became less than evens in the last few weeks.

(Correct me if I'm wrong, memory not the best).

I remember a lot of buzz around Fantasia too.

You're probably right, but I would say that nobody beats Adam Lambert in the betting stakes. He was the red hot favourite from start to finish, even in the final he was favourite. Some places in America stopped taking bets on him.

Carrie Underwood, the season 4 winner, was a very strong favourite. It was head to head with Bo Bice, the runner-up, for a while but she pulled away in the betting to odds-on favourite once Bo ended up in the bottom two one week.

Adam Lambert, the season 8 runner-up, was favourite from the start (though closely followed by third-placed Danny Gokey to begin with) and as short as 2/5 from the third week of the live shows. Even after ending up in the bottom two in top 5 week, he still remained odds-on favourite at 4/5. By the time of the final, many bookmakers had closed their books on him winning.

Funnily enough, the last three winners started the live shows at 12/1, the price that James started at. Good omen for James but on the downside, only one of those 12/1 starting winners has gone onto sell as a winner would be expected to.

Bit of a back-handed compliment really


LOL By the sounds of things, maybe James Drubbing is more appropriate.

Basically the pre-taping of the show caught a few firms out. They still had their odds up this morning, when blogs were reporting how the acts fared last night. The run on James occured because of the reporting, and the majority of bookies caught with their pants down, panicked.

As for the wrong names and spellings this will be due to using different sites for names.
Some had Lauren's full name while others just used the shorter version. Dont think there is much to worry about in regards to being paid out.

Got £20 in on him last week so pretty pleased with that. Cant see him winning though but top 5 is a possibility

He's back out to second favourite now, taking bookies odds overall, with Lauren back to favourite and as short as 3-1 with some bookies. Considering the influx of bets placed on him as a result of the reports, this would suggest that a similar number of bets weren't placed on him after the actual broadcast.

Does not mean nothing at all. Most people who jumped up on the 14/1 and 10/1 general, are in no rush now to back him at the 4/1. US Books are not offering now until after tonight's results are known, but they had him down to 3/1 clear favourite at the last count.
The market will generally settle down, and the Betfair arbers will now try and lay him to make their profits (i.e buy at 12/1 and sell at 5/1).

What does that mean, please?

I can't see anyone buying at 5 though (at least anyone that knows what they are doing).
It's just a similar blip to when Aiden (who I really liked) in the Xfactor had 1 cracking performance and his odds dropped, straight away I said he will just drift right back out again.
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...76&postcount=4

I imagine James will be back out at 10's (at least) by next week.