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*DS Ratings Prediction Game: Season 14*


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Old 24-04-2011, 15:07
Dancc
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Yeah, the averages. Most of the time, as a group, we are quite close.
Very true! So far this season the averages have been 500k or less away from the actual rating for 40 out of the 55 shows we have predicted. The only 15 that beat us were...

Bodyshock: Dad's Having a Baby
Britain's Royal Weddings
Campus
Candy Cabs
Doctor Who
Don't Scare The Hare
Eurovision: Your Country Needs Blue
Have I Got News For You
March of the Dinosaurs
The Reckoning
Sing If You Can
So You Think You Can Dance
So You Think You Can Dance: Results
Spider-Man
When Piers Met Andrew Lloyd Webber
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Old 24-04-2011, 15:21
Dancc
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I think the outcome of this week's weekly competition could come down to how well tonight's Corrie performs. The top 7 players are quite split on how well it will do, with one group of players predicting around the 6m mark and the other predicting nearer the 7m mark:

5.9m: Pizzatheaction
6.0m: rzt
6.0m: Georged123
--------------------------
6.8m: mattpinder
7.0m: C14E
7.1m: wildbenji64
7.5m: MrIncredible

Last year's Easter Sunday episode of the soap averaged 6.3m in the overnights.
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Old 24-04-2011, 16:56
daznov11
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Just a couple of little things I wanted to say

1) I actually think I was taken over by a crazed lunatic when predicting this week, I put both Coronation Street and Doctor who on to get over 11m and I put march of the Dinosaurs at 5m. I'm wondering Dancc were they the craziest predictions of the season so far

2)Dancc I notice that only 10 people had send their list by midday today and it made me wonder, is that number an anomaly or is the pretty normal to have most people predict just as the deadline comes to a close.

3) I'd also just like to thank ManCityBean for this very nice website as it looks like quite a bit of work went into it and its really good for being able to compare all the weeks of a particular season at the one time.

Oh well that's my rambling over, I shall now go predict my "winning" schedule
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Old 24-04-2011, 17:09
Dancc
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1) I actually think I was taken over by a crazed lunatic when predicting this week, I put both Coronation Street and Doctor who on to get over 11m and I put march of the Dinosaurs at 5m. I'm wondering Dancc were they the craziest predictions of the season so far
LOL! No, I wouldn't say that. I think most of us are guilty of one or two wild predictions this season!

2)Dancc I notice that only 10 people had send their list by midday today and it made me wonder, is that number an anomaly or is the pretty normal to have most people predict just as the deadline comes to a close.
Pretty normal. Most people send their predictions on Monday evening, out of habit I guess. It seems to be mostly newer players that predict earlier in the week, as well as a few of the regulars like Rob and Pizza!

3) I'd also just like to thank ManCityBean for this very nice website as it looks like quite a bit of work went into it and its really good for being able to compare all the weeks of a particular season at the one time.
I agree. Thanks again Mancitybean! He's really good at keeping it up-to-date as well, I'm amazed at how quickly stuff ends up on there. If you haven't checked it out yet, I'd recommend it.
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Old 24-04-2011, 18:24
Pizzatheaction
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* For the second update running the biggest mover is Pizzatheaction, this time climbing a whopping 26 places to #4.
Bit up and down this week.

I was lucky with Doctor Who, because I took a guess on it being a hot weekend, when I predicted.

I think the weather makes this game harder at this time of year because you never know if it's going to be sweaty weather or brass monkeys.
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Old 24-04-2011, 18:44
mancitybean
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Just a couple of little things I wanted to say

3) I'd also just like to thank ManCityBean for this very nice website as it looks like quite a bit of work went into it and its really good for being able to compare all the weeks of a particular season at the one time.
Thanks daznov11 (and Dancc). I wish the site was as good as my predicting!
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Old 24-04-2011, 19:08
Dancc
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Bit up and down this week.

I was lucky with Doctor Who, because I took a guess on it being a hot weekend, when I predicted.
Me too! Just 100k out. Looks like it's cooling down a bit after today so things should return to relative normality, at least for now.
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Old 24-04-2011, 19:38
Only_You
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Hmmmm! After the death of John Sullivan, I think I may have gone a little low for Rock & Chips now. I think it could rival Gypsy Weddings now as winner of that slot.
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Old 24-04-2011, 20:01
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Much more updates on the site now

The rules, credits, season 12 complete and the first week ever. As well as a logo!
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Old 25-04-2011, 00:21
sn_22
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So, I spent a good hour with schedules, historical comparisons, even a calculator trying to make this weeks predictions. Then I said, "Ah, forget it. Lets just have a guess." The resulting figures are now in Dancc's inbox.

That BBC One Royal Wedding special is incredibly difficult - nearly 6 hours long and surely a huge range of viewing levels in that time. Can't wait to see where people think the average will fall.
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Old 25-04-2011, 00:34
Georged123
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So, I spent a good hour with schedules, historical comparisons, even a calculator trying to make this weeks predictions. Then I said, "Ah, forget it. Lets just have a guess." The resulting figures are now in Dancc's inbox.

That BBC One Royal Wedding special is incredibly difficult - nearly 6 hours long and surely a huge range of viewing levels in that time. Can't wait to see where people think the average will fall.
You could have spent a whole day trying to analyse statistics and come up with a figure that made sense and you still probably wouldnt get anywhere near the actual figure.

The best action for predicting the Royal Wedding must be a pure guess or picking numbers out of a hat.
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Old 25-04-2011, 00:52
Jonwo
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I'm not having a good week but after my good run last week, I dont mind.

I think Average Player should come back for one week only!
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Old 25-04-2011, 00:56
Dancc
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I made an error with the start time for Derren Brown in this week's schedule. It's actually 9pm. If anybody wishes to change their prediction as a result of this, you may do so, just send me another PM containing your revised prediction. Sorry for the mistake!
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Old 25-04-2011, 01:00
Dancc
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And so, just to clarify, here is the correct schedule:

WEEK 4 SCHEDULE
Mon 25th April – Sun 1st May

Blind Week: Please submit your predictions this week via private message here. Do NOT submit them to this thread.

1. The Suspicions of Mr Whicher – Mon 21:00 ITV1:
2. Derren Brown: Miracles for Sale – Mon 21:00 Channel 4:
3. The Secret Millionaire – Tue 21:00 Channel 4:
4. Two Pints of Lager and a Packet of Crisps – Tue 22:30 BBC Three:
5. MasterChef: The Final – Wed 21:00 BBC One:
6. Rock and Chips – Thu 21:00 BBC One:
7. Come Dine with Me Royal Wedding Special – Fri 20:00 Channel 4:
8. The Royal Wedding – Fri 20:30 BBC One:
9. Doctor Who – Sat 18:00 BBC One:
10. Vera – Sun 20:00 ITV1:
11. Exile – Sun 21:00 BBC One:
12. The Bank Job – Sun 21:00 Channel 4:
13. *SPECIAL* My Big Fat Royal Gypsy Wedding – Thu 21:00 Channel 4:
14. *SPECIAL* The Royal Wedding – Fri 08:00 BBC One:
15. *SPECIAL* The Royal Wedding – Fri 10:45 ITV1:

Backups
16. Kate and William: A Royal Love Story – Mon 20:30 BBC One:
17. William and Kate: The Story So Far – Tue 20:00 Channel 5:
18. When Kate Met William: A Tale of Two Lives – Tue 21:00 ITV1:
19. Giles and Sue’s Royal Wedding – Wed 20:00 BBC Two:
20. William and Kate: Romance and the Royals – Wed 21:00 Channel 4:

Submission Deadline: Tuesday 26th April 9am.

The main ITV1 programme for the Royal Wedding has been confirmed as starting at 10:45am now on the Freeview EPG.
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Old 25-04-2011, 12:12
Dancc
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Week 3: Final Update

- Countryfile (4.8m) averaged 1.7 points. No 5ers were scored.
- Coronation Street (5.6m) averaged 0.5 points. No 5ers were scored.
- United (3.2m) averaged 1.9 points. daznov11 scored a 5er.
- Lewis (BACKUP- 5.7m) averaged 1.9 points. No 5ers were scored.

For the second week in a row, this week's winner is: To Be Decided.

Here is the leaderboard in full:

Code:
#	Name-------------------	Main	All
1	Pizzatheaction.........	37	54
=	rzt....................	37	54
3	Georged123.............	36	52
4	mattpinder.............	34	48
5	DimSum.................	33	51
=	wildbenji64............	33	51
7	MrIncredible...........	32	47
8	C14E...................	32	44
9	iaindb.................	31	46
10	Dancc..................	30	46
11	DS Rob E...............	29	43
12	Avalanche..............	28	47
13	Score..................	28	43
14	sn_22..................	27	45
15	Only_You...............	27	43
16	remy...................	27	41
17	AnthonyC...............	27	39
18	ZoeMcCallister.........	26	41
19	Roscoe Barnes..........	26	40
20	Thebenster.............	26	39
21	basdfg.................	25	44
22	Pepsi_Max_Kid..........	25	38
23	daznov11...............	25	37
24	Fudd...................	24	41
25	PeteIsGod..............	24	40
26	deanieboy..............	24	39
27	FunkmasterT............	23	37
28	lemezma................	22	32
29	harry_i_c..............	21	34
30	MikeLowery.............	20	35
31	Ocado..................	19	38
32	Jonwo..................	19	34
33	sacavsworld............	18	24
34	mancitybean............	15	26
* Average score: 26.8 points.
* Well I didn't see that coming! We've gone so long without a tiebreak and now two have come along at once!
* Pizzatheaction and rzt will now submit predictions to me for tonight's Springwatch, 8pm on BBC Two, in order to settle the tie and for a winner to be decided.
* Whoever gets closest to the actual rating will earn an extra backup point in order to clinch 1st place tomorrow. Good luck guys and well done so far.
* Unlucky MrIncredible. For the third week on the trot you've started the week strongly and then the weekend's results have gone against you. Keep it up though and your first win won't be far away.
* Notably Georged123 posted another very strong performance. We'll see what that means as far as the overall charts are concerned in a sec.
* And mattpinder did well to finish 4th despite having points deducted for a late entry. Well played, Matt.
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Old 25-04-2011, 12:16
rzt
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Wow, another tie - what were the chances of that . This is exciting . I'll send my prediction in a bit Dancc
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Old 25-04-2011, 12:35
mattpinder
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* And mattpinder did well to finish 4th despite having points deducted for a late entry. Well played, Matt.[/i]
Thanks Dancc!

Ooh another tie!

If only I wasn't a day late with my predictions
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Old 25-04-2011, 12:38
Dancc
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Ooh Exciting!

If only I wasn't a day late with my predictions
Here's an agonising stat for you - if you'd scored the average number of points for Monday night's shows (5 points), then you'd have won the week and this tiebreak would not be happening!

If ever there was a good reason for submitting on time, this is it. But I won't be accepting any late entries this week anyway guys as some data will be published after the deadline closes tomorrow and it would give latecomers an unfair advantage, sorry!
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Old 25-04-2011, 13:02
Dancc
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Overall: Season 14 leaderboard by points

- This leaderboard shows the total number of points each player has accumulated over the entire season so far.

The current leader of Season 14 is: Georged123.

Code:
#	Name-----------------	Total Weeks
1	Georged123.............	134	3
2	MrIncredible...........	121	3
3	rzt....................	116	3
4	DimSum.................	115	3
5	sn_22..................	111	3
6	Avalanche..............	110	3
7	C14E...................	109	3
=	Only_You...............	109	3
=	PeteIsGod..............	109	3
10	Pizzatheaction.........	108	3
11	mattpinder.............	107	3
=	Score..................	107	3
=	wildbenji64............	107	3
14	Jonwo..................	105	3
15	Roscoe Barnes..........	104	3
=	ZoeMcCallister.........	104	3
17	FunkmasterT............	103	3
=	iaindb.................	103	3
19	Dancc..................	102	3
20	remy...................	101	3
21	AnthonyC...............	99	3
22	Thebenster.............	98	3
23	Pepsi_Max_Kid..........	96	3
24	basdfg.................	89	3
=	deanieboy..............	89	3
26	DS Rob E...............	87	3
=	Fudd...................	87	3
28	harry_i_c..............	85	3
29	lemezma................	78	3
30	daznov11...............	73	3
31	MikeLowery.............	53	2
32	mancitybean............	47	3
33	Ocado..................	45	3
34	pakokelso93............	31	1
35	sacavsworld............	18	1
* Congratulations to Georged123.
* That's a seriously strong lead for such an early stage in the season, backed up by the fact the drop from #1 to #2 is as big as the drop from #3 to #18!
* At this point last season, Score led with 127 points, 3 points ahead of nearest rival and eventual winner C14E.
* With a blind week coming up though it could all change very quickly so no need for anyone to lose heart, still very much all to play for!
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Old 25-04-2011, 13:03
Dancc
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Overall: Season 13 leaderboard by average

- This leaderboard is based on the average score each player has achieved out of all weeks attempted so it doesn't matter if you've missed weeks. However, players who haven't played for three weeks consecutively will be filtered out of this table. They can return though, if they restart playing.

The player with the highest average score is: Georged123.

Code:
#	Name-----------------	Average
1	Georged123.............	44.7
2	MrIncredible...........	40.3
3	rzt....................	38.7
4	DimSum.................	38.3
5	sn_22..................	37.0
6	Avalanche..............	36.7
7	C14E...................	36.3
=	Only_You...............	36.3
=	PeteIsGod..............	36.3
10	Pizzatheaction.........	36.0
11	mattpinder.............	35.7
=	Score..................	35.7
=	wildbenji64............	35.7
14	Jonwo..................	35.0
15	Roscoe Barnes..........	34.7
=	ZoeMcCallister.........	34.7
17	FunkmasterT............	34.3
=	iaindb.................	34.3
19	Dancc..................	34.0
20	remy...................	33.7
21	AnthonyC...............	33.0
22	Thebenster.............	32.7
23	Pepsi_Max_Kid..........	32.0
24	pakokelso93............	31.0
25	basdfg.................	29.7
=	deanieboy..............	29.7
27	DS Rob E...............	29.0
=	Fudd...................	29.0
29	harry_i_c..............	28.3
30	MikeLowery.............	26.5
31	lemezma................	26.0
32	daznov11...............	24.3
33	sacavsworld............	18.0
34	mancitybean............	15.7
35	Ocado..................	15.0
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Old 25-04-2011, 13:25
mancitybean
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Overall: Season 13 leaderboard by average
Season 13?
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Old 25-04-2011, 13:43
rzt
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Sent my tiebreaker prediction to Dancc
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Old 25-04-2011, 14:25
Dancc
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Sorry. That is, of course, for Season 14!

Sent my tiebreaker prediction to Dancc
Received- thanks! Just waiting on Pizza to send his through now and then I'll post them up.
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Old 25-04-2011, 14:30
mattpinder
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Blind week predictions sent to Dancc. (took me hours!!)

Big thanks!

Good luck rzt and pizza tonight!
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Old 25-04-2011, 15:48
iaindb
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Contrary to my earlier post declaring me out for week 4, I have now sent my predictions.
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