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Old 01-06-2011, 20:47
Everything Goes
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I had read rumours about that the other week but with Nokia's shares plummeting 18% this week it looks increasingly likely that Microsoft may well buy the troubled phone maker.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13619601

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05..._buyout_rumor/
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Old 01-06-2011, 23:06
david.boobis
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I've seen the rumours too, Eldar Murtazin is saying it's a done deal for $19bn, and he does have a pretty good track record, but I can't see it myself.

Firstly, it would kill any relationship with other OEMs - why would HTC, Samsung, LG, etc want to compete with the people they're paying the license fee to? It wouldn't make much sense.

Secondly, Microsoft are a software company. Yes they've had success with the Xbox, but the Zune didn't really work out and Kin was a massive black hole for them (some estimates say the whole debacle cost them around $1bn). I can't see them stepping into phone hardware really.

And thirdly, Nokia isn't just in mobile phones. They are a massive telecommunications company with fingers in landlines, networking, and many other pies. Pies that Microsoft has no interest in or business in.

The most that is likely to happen is that Microsoft has bought in to become a partner with Nokia - not bought them outright. That would make more sense, as then Nokia could maintain some autonomy while Microsoft could better field-test new features/specs for WP7.
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Old 01-06-2011, 23:28
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http://www.bgr.com/2011/06/01/micros...nsider-claims/
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Old 01-06-2011, 23:42
Awshum-Yawn
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I'll never own a Nokia again. Sad times.
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Old 01-06-2011, 23:44
TheBigM
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I'll never own a Nokia again. Sad times.
Why never?
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Old 01-06-2011, 23:50
Awshum-Yawn
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Because they'll only come with Windows and I've invested quite a sum of money on games and apps with Android.
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Old 02-06-2011, 00:03
TheBigM
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Because they'll only come with Windows and I've invested quite a sum of money on games and apps with Android.
I think even Elop made it clear, Nokia and Windows isn't forever, they want to be ready for "the next disruption" in Elop's words.

But you're right investing in the third-party software creates lock-in. Which makes one think, if Microsoft doesn't move a lot faster, there won't be any customers left i.e. even ones who like the look of their product will be locked-in.

But it's interesting to see just how many people are taking account of this sunk investment or not. Seems like a lot of people focus on free apps in Android (less true for iPhone) so perhaps overall there's less lock-in than one thinks. Will be interesting to see how things pan out and why.
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Old 02-06-2011, 00:11
bigtunes
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I've seen the rumours too, Eldar Murtazin is saying it's a done deal for $19bn, and he does have a pretty good track record, but I can't see it myself.

Firstly, it would kill any relationship with other OEMs - why would HTC, Samsung, LG, etc want to compete with the people they're paying the license fee to? It wouldn't make much sense.
Doesn't seem to have done Apple much harm. Although you'd expect MS to offer multiple handsets rather than the Apple single handset offering. In the long term there has got to be more profit in selling the whole package than just licensing the software.

Secondly, Microsoft are a software company. Yes they've had success with the Xbox, but the Zune didn't really work out and Kin was a massive black hole for them (some estimates say the whole debacle cost them around $1bn). I can't see them stepping into phone hardware really.
Which is why buying Nokia would make sense, established name, (although arguably with a pretty poor reputation at the moment.) As you say they got burnt badly with Kin, so maybe buying a company with the experience and knowledge, along with all the manufacturing, R&D etc. facilities in place has got to be cheaper than starting from scratch. And if it goes wrong they can always cut their losses and flog them again.

And thirdly, Nokia isn't just in mobile phones. They are a massive telecommunications company with fingers in landlines, networking, and many other pies. Pies that Microsoft has no interest in or business in.
As I understand it from the reports it's only the mobile division of Nokia that's for sale. It's not that uncommon for companies to flog off various arms that aren't doing to well.

It would be an interesting move, I'm no Apple fan but maybe MS have looked at what they've achieved and are looking to grab a slice of that pie for themselves.
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Old 02-06-2011, 00:31
gomezz
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Because they'll only come with Windows and I've invested quite a sum of money on games and apps with Android.
I was not aware that any Nokia handsets ran Android?
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Old 02-06-2011, 00:32
Awshum-Yawn
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I think even Elop made it clear, Nokia and Windows isn't forever, they want to be ready for "the next disruption" in Elop's words.

But you're right investing in the third-party software creates lock-in. Which makes one think, if Microsoft doesn't move a lot faster, there won't be any customers left i.e. even ones who like the look of their product will be locked-in.

But it's interesting to see just how many people are taking account of this sunk investment or not. Seems like a lot of people focus on free apps in Android (less true for iPhone) so perhaps overall there's less lock-in than one thinks. Will be interesting to see how things pan out and why.
Lock in is more than just paid apps. There's having to look for solutions all over again... free or paid. Familiarity in other words, ironically it's one of the things that kept us with Windows on our PCs but it won't do it for phones. Android and iOS have already got there.
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Old 02-06-2011, 00:38
Awshum-Yawn
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I was not aware that any Nokia handsets ran Android?
Read the posts again.

I will never be getting a Nokia because they don't run Android.
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Old 02-06-2011, 00:40
TheBigM
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Lock in is more than just paid apps. There's having to look for solutions all over again... free or paid. Familiarity in other words, ironically it's one of the things that kept us with Windows on our PCs but it won't do it for phones. Android and iOS have already got there.
I'm not so sure, Macs have been increasing in popularity. Also on phones there's a culture of changing on a fairly regular basis. While some people have had loyalty to certain brands in the past (e.g. Nokia), most have been willing to go with what's hot at the time with the different UIs from each handset maker. Everyone had to learn the iOS paradigm in the beginning, people going from Sense to TouchWiz have a little unfamiliarity.

You might be right but I think it's too soon to call on that front.
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Old 02-06-2011, 00:42
gomezz
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Read the posts again.

I will never be getting a Nokia because they don't run Android.
Pretty irrelevant as far this thread goes then.
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Old 02-06-2011, 09:18
Awshum-Yawn
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Pretty irrelevant as far this thread goes then.
Actually it isn't.

Nokia may use Android in the future but if MS buys them it'll never happen.
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Old 02-06-2011, 09:49
david.boobis
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Doesn't seem to have done Apple much harm. Although you'd expect MS to offer multiple handsets rather than the Apple single handset offering. In the long term there has got to be more profit in selling the whole package than just licensing the software.
Apple never licensed iOS to anyone. That's the major difference. If Microsoft owned Nokia, then Nokia phones would undoubtedly be given preferential treatment, Nokia would be privy to new specs and upgrades earlier, and the hardware requirements would be driven by what's cheapest for Nokia. I can't see HTC or Samsung being okay with this.

I know it's not uncommon for conglomerates like Nokia to sell off specific underperforming arms of their business, but you have to remember that to 99% of the world, Nokia IS mobile phones. Unless Microsoft renamed the mobile phone division (unlikely, else what's the point in buying the name), Nokia would have to change their name to avoid market confusion (also unlikely, as they've been around for a very very long time).

When I said Microsoft was a software company, I meant it in the way that WalMart is a retailer. While it would make logistical sense for them to buy, say, DHL, they wouldn't do it because it's not their wheelhouse. Just like Manchester United will never buy Umbro, or Warner Bros. will never buy Kodak.
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Old 02-06-2011, 10:10
TheBigM
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Additionally, what possible benefit is there for MS to buy Nokia? They've got exclusivity from Nokia in the smartphone space, they've got very close alignment of their teams - they've got everything they need. There's no incentive for Google to buy Nokia - they've got a ton of committed hardware partners and are already doing very well and their main agenda for android is to push their services rather than the software itself. There are no other major players in the mobile space. WebOS isn't going to go anywhere.
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Old 02-06-2011, 10:31
Simon Rodgers
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I had read rumours about that the other week but with Nokia's shares plummeting 18% this week it looks increasingly likely that Microsoft may well buy the troubled phone maker.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13619601

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05..._buyout_rumor/
That spells disaster, I can sense it.
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Old 02-06-2011, 10:47
clonmult
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Read the posts again.

I will never be getting a Nokia because they don't run Android.
But they can - in theory - run Android apps. There's a QT application, Myriad Alien Dalvik that allows Android apps to be run on other devices. Its only been demonstrated on the N900 (ie. Maemo), and it ran perfectly. Catch is that the app is only intended to be supplied to manufacturers.

As for Eldar being accurate - not really. He comes out with so many rumours that some of it is likely to come to fruition.

But I was under the impression that M$ had stated that they have no intent to buy Nokias mobile division. Could happen, but seems unlikely.

At the end of the day, the drop in shares and Nokias problems are all down to lousy management, worst of them being Elop - he's totally mismanaged the whole transition, and appears to be one of the worst CEOs I've ever witnessed.
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Old 02-06-2011, 11:10
bigtunes
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Apple never licensed iOS to anyone. That's the major difference. If Microsoft owned Nokia, then Nokia phones would undoubtedly be given preferential treatment, Nokia would be privy to new specs and upgrades earlier, and the hardware requirements would be driven by what's cheapest for Nokia. I can't see HTC or Samsung being okay with this.

I know it's not uncommon for conglomerates like Nokia to sell off specific underperforming arms of their business, but you have to remember that to 99% of the world, Nokia IS mobile phones. Unless Microsoft renamed the mobile phone division (unlikely, else what's the point in buying the name), Nokia would have to change their name to avoid market confusion (also unlikely, as they've been around for a very very long time).

When I said Microsoft was a software company, I meant it in the way that WalMart is a retailer. While it would make logistical sense for them to buy, say, DHL, they wouldn't do it because it's not their wheelhouse. Just like Manchester United will never buy Umbro, or Warner Bros. will never buy Kodak.
That's what I was getting at, Apple have kept everything in house. Maybe MS have decided to follow a similar route. And if MS acquire an 'off the shelf' mobile division would they care what Samsung, HTC etc.think? The OEMs will have a licensing agreement for x years, they can either throw a hissy fit and write that money off or they can see out the license period at which point MS won't renew. One of the points that keeps coming up in the iOS v Android threads is that Android is on too many different handsets with various specs, OEM overlays and different iterations of the OS. MS seem to be taking a more Apple approach with Windows Phone, by not allowing the OEMs to mess around with it too much. The next logical step would be to control the hardware that the OS is put on. And the easiest way to do that? Build it yourself.

Maybe a name change would be required, as you say Jo Public know Nokia as a mobile phone company although they manufacture a whole range of networking and telecoms gear virtually unknown to anyone outside of the telecoms/IT industries. Although, a total name change wouldn't be strictly necessary, when Sony and Ericsson partnered up they just combined the names, so we will see MS Nokia handsets?

I can see what your saying about Walmat/DHL etc. but MS have made forays into the hardware side of things. Xbox, Zune, Kin as well as a range of PC peripherals. If they want to grow and add value to the company they have to expand, and the way smartphones are going it's got to be a direction worth going in. Apple have the iphone, Google have the Nexus, what do MS have?
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Old 02-06-2011, 11:21
TheBigM
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At the end of the day, the drop in shares and Nokias problems are all down to lousy management, worst of them being Elop - he's totally mismanaged the whole transition, and appears to be one of the worst CEOs I've ever witnessed.
What would you have done differently?
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Old 02-06-2011, 11:54
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Stephen Elop has said that the current rumours have no base to them. So more than likely it's not true.

I don't see why people think Elop is so bad? Just because he's from Microsoft makes him the son of the devil? There's probably a reason he left Microsoft.

By the way... Microsoft DO have control over the hardware. Just not all of it like Apple. They TELL the OEM's which Processor and screen type etc. to use. They also tell them the MINIMUM requirements for RAM/memory/screen size/camera quality to use.

The OEM's can bring out whatever spec they want as long as it meets the minimum requirements.



Zune seems hardly a fail. The real fail is Microsoft's poor advertising of it. There's virtually none.

Also... People still write "M$"? Walk into the modern age will you?
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Old 02-06-2011, 13:02
david.boobis
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That's what I was getting at, Apple have kept everything in house. Maybe MS have decided to follow a similar route. And if MS acquire an 'off the shelf' mobile division would they care what Samsung, HTC etc.think? The OEMs will have a licensing agreement for x years, they can either throw a hissy fit and write that money off or they can see out the license period at which point MS won't renew. One of the points that keeps coming up in the iOS v Android threads is that Android is on too many different handsets with various specs, OEM overlays and different iterations of the OS. MS seem to be taking a more Apple approach with Windows Phone, by not allowing the OEMs to mess around with it too much. The next logical step would be to control the hardware that the OS is put on. And the easiest way to do that? Build it yourself.
I see your point, but the fact is that Android is now the dominant smartphone platform and is still growing at an alarming rate thanks to their strategy. 600,000 activations per day isn't bad going. I think what MS are trying to do is meet iOS and Android in the middle - have strict control over the OS so the OEMs can't screw it up, but give them the freedom to differentiate with the hardware (which has the added benefit of more handsets in the market, which increases visibility). It's an interesting strategy, and one that could work if they keep up with the big update packages every 6 months and someone (probably Nokia) comes out with some really compelling hardware choices.
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Old 02-06-2011, 13:42
googleking
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Not a surprise, Nokia has been very badly run for the last few years, they only have themselves to blame for letting everyone else not only catch up but also overtake.
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Old 02-06-2011, 17:36
moox
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I don't see why people think Elop is so bad? Just because he's from Microsoft makes him the son of the devil? There's probably a reason he left Microsoft.
You don't think that there is something odd in that he joins Nokia from Microsoft, and then proceeds to shut down the Symbian operation, just about kill MeeGo, and then announce that all of their phones are going to run a Microsoft operating system?

Especially when WP7 is far from dominant. It'd make Nokia a lot more sense to go Android - and Nokia's great hardware combined with Android would be rather good.
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Old 02-06-2011, 17:45
flynn
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Not a surprise, Nokia has been very badly run for the last few years, they only have themselves to blame for letting everyone else not only catch up but also overtake.
There's an interesting opinion piece on The Register today looking at it from that angle, as opposed to the anti-Elop one a lot of people seem to be adopting. Not sure what side of the fence i sit on that one tbh, but it makes for interesting reading...
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