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The Ratings Thread (Part 21) |
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#1001 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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What does everyone on hear think on how the big 3 Reality shows will do this year.
I Think X Factor Will average 12-13m Strictly Come Dancing: 10m I'm A Celebrity: 9.5m Also when is Doctor Who Coming back? |
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#1002 |
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September time I think - I'm not sure if they'll try to get it out of the way before Strictly Come Dancing launches.
I think all stages will rate lower and the live shows will probably average 11million. SCD will probably hold it's success from last year which was it's highest ever rated series. Seeing as noone has left the panel it will be like putting on a old pair of slippers for viewers. I'm a Celeb will probably do well but it needs good celebs again this year the last two years it has been on a ratings high. |
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#1003 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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Surely the beeb will run "The Magicians" with a Live element from January, "Lets Dance" in Feb/March, Leaving "The Voice" for the slot vacated by "SYTYCD" Mar-June ?
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#1004 |
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Good solid start for Castle. Part of a strong Friday generally for Channel 5 with Eddie Stobart rising 300k week-on-week to beat a new episode of Come Dine With Me. In fact, the network was only 0.2 share points behind Channel 4 in the primetime shares - which had two of its biggest shows on - CDWM and 8 Out of 10 Cats. Impressive stuff.
Bit mediocre for BBC One and ITV1 by their standards, whilst BBC Two appear to have a hit in The Kennedys. Alan Carr meanwhile performed very well in his new timeslot. |
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#1005 |
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Join Date: Nov 2005
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The Voice would basically have a free run airing against a 2010/11 Q1-style ITV1 schedule. It'd have such a good chance of becoming a hit airing from January next year, the BBC will be mad not to launch it then. Like I said yesterday, if The Magicians and SYTYCD, two pretty average shows to say the least, can manage audiences of c.5.5m at that time of the year, unless the The Voice is absolutely terrible (which is unlikely given the money the BBC are reportedly spending on it), it'll surely be getting 6m+, at least initially, against very average competition. Take Me Out is not a big "hitter" as Brekkie puts it - it does very well with the 16-34s but it doesn't appeal to all age groups, a big-hitter is something which gets 7m+ not 4.5-5.0m.
Unless Red or Black becomes a big hit, which I agree with C14E doesn't look too likely (it could be a middling hit), really I don't see any better alternative than to move the Dancing on Ice performance show to Saturdays. Saturdays in Q1 is screaming out for a talent show and it's something which I've suggested they should've done previously anyway. But it's even more important for them now because unless ITV wants to hand the BBC a big hit on the plate which could potentially be a staple for them in the next 5-10 years, surely ITV will have to be aggressive to counteract the Voice becoming a big success? Whilst I agree with both Brekkie and C14E that there's no guarantee that DOI can cope with a Sat/Sun split as well as the current Sun scheduling, the signs are there that the show has a pretty loyal audience: it was averaging 8m+ earlier this year against tough competition like Antiques Roadshow and Top Gear (both 6m at the same time) in the 8-8.30pm half-hour period, so I suspect it'd be able to cope absolutely fine against an untested show like The Voice and potentially prevent it from becoming a breakout hit (there'd still be enough of an audience around for The Voice to be a normal hit though but not a 'big-hitter' I suspect). So if ITV want to prevent The Voice from becoming a massive success and also in the process raise their own primetime shares for Sat/Sun primetime overall, I'd suggest a schedule of: Sat: 19:00- TV Burp, 19:30- Dancing on Ice, 21:00- Take Me Out Sun: 19:00- Dancing on Ice Results, 20:00- Wild at Heart, 21:00- Whitechapel/Scott & Bailey/New Drama TV Burp would be capable of its usual 5.0-5.5m helped by DOI viewers tuning in early - it only really dropped to 4.0-4.5m earlier this year for 4 episodes against Let's Dance, a clash that might not even happen next year. DOI would need some big names next year if they go with the Sat/Sun schedule and ITV just need to make a bigger deal about it with better promotion and make it a top priority really, but a 7.30-9pm slot on a Saturday would surely see its figures pretty similar to how the 6.30-8.30pm Sunday performance shows have rated previously and I wouldn't envisage a significant ratings drop. TMO would be a bit later than its ideal time but it showed earlier this year that it was capable of good ratings running into the 9pm (and even 10pm) slot and should be capable of a solid 5m with the big lead-in it'd get. As for the Sunday schedule, you could switch DOI/WAH over if you wanted - the only reason I've done it that way is that DOI seems to do really well in the 7pm hour, like SCD, so I think having it there it'd done fine (better than the ~7m the results shows were getting at 9.30pm) and still provide that big lead-in to WaH. WaH probably wouldn't rate as well as it used to (~7m) due to starting at the hour instead of half-hour but ought to be capable 6-7m, which would be a good inheritence for a 9pm drama to rate at 5m+. Overall it'd mean Sundays rating worse than how they have done in the last three years, for sure, but there would be a huge uplift in the Saturday share (the first 10 weeks this year only averaged 15.6% on Saturday primetime for ITV1!) and DOI would actually probably be longer in its duration with the Sat/Sun split scheduling due to the 60-min instead of 30-min results, meaning more adverts during it for ITV. If ITV don't do anything and just have their usual lineup of 18.30 You've Been Framed, 19.00 TV Burp, 19.30 Take Me Out, 20.45 Jonathan Ross's Show, which is a realistic possibility, they're going to get absolutely thrashed and I think The Voice would clean up in the ratings: not TXF/BGT levels obviously but a big hit by usual BBC1 light entertainment standards. I know some people are saying The Voice could go the same way as SYTYCD has done over here but I'd disagree. In the US, The Voice gets double the ratings SYTYCD has been getting. SYTYCD itself is an average hit over there IMO - it does pretty well in the demo but not great among total viewers, it was even almost beaten by a Wipeout repeat recently. So I never thought the Beeb had a big hit on their hands with SYTYCD, although they should've done better with it. With The Voice though, they're pouring a lot of money into it (reportedly £650k an hour) so you'll be able to tell on-screen, the newspapers are actually talking about it unlike SYTYCD which is very important for talent shows, and the concept of the show has been popular worldwide, so I can see it doing very well. As for press interest-nothing can be bigger in this vain celeb dominated industry than to have even the prospect of Cheryl Cole associated with the show. The Beeb has had a huge stroke of luck with all the X Factor woes generating reflected speculation onto its own show. Whether they go with Cole or not, there will be endless background noise regarding the choice of the judges now. Its like gold dust in comparison to the SYTYCD panel which barely raised an eyebrow. Ofcourse the BBC have to make sure the final choice is not a huge let down. With regards to SYTYCD, does everyone think its dead in the water-might it be useful at some part of the year? |
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#1006 |
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 18,788
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Quote:
Surely the beeb will run "The Magicians" with a Live element from January, "Lets Dance" in Feb/March, Leaving "The Voice" for the slot vacated by "SYTYCD" Mar-June ?
As The Voice ought to be top priority for the BBC, it should take the January slot with The Magicians transferred over to Spring. If that results in The Magicians losing viewers, so be it. It's not the Next Big Thing which The Voice could potentially be. Quote:
With regards to SYTYCD, does everyone think its dead in the water-might it be useful at some part of the year?
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#1007 |
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 20,371
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Cricket still live on SS1, about 40 minutes of play left and C5's highlights have started.
Editor's nightmare!! |
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#1008 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 17,541
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The problem with My Family is that it's never been a post watershed show & if it was getting Waterloo Road's slot it would still be getting 5m+, but I guess there just aren't enough pre watershed slots now and it has had its day. Good move to schedule repeats of Miranda capturing a different audience before the next series starts.
And I notice the BBC are shuffling the running order of the episodes. The one on July 1st was supposed to be one without Robert Lindsay, but they've swapped it for an episode he features in. |
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#1009 |
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Join Date: Nov 2005
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Not sure whether this has been mentioned, apparently Nick Knowles is unhappy with the BBC for the reduction in budget for his shows like DIY SOS, and may not sign another exclusive contract. Snippet in the Mirror.
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#1010 |
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Not sure whether this has been mentioned, apparently Nick Knowles is unhappy with the BBC for the reduction in budget for his shows like DIY SOS, and may not sign another exclusive contract. Snippet in the Mirror.
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#1011 |
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Cricket still live on SS1, about 40 minutes of play left and C5's highlights have started.
Editor's nightmare!! |
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#1012 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 17,541
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There is always a place on the BBC for big budget entertainment series and the public expect this. The Voice fits well on the BBC, having watched some of it on YouTube it is very different from your standard ITV talent show.
Although, as mlt says, it won't stop the press spinning, even though they also complain every time the BBC secures a new sporting contract, or retains one. |
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#1013 |
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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I'm sympathetic to where you're coming from. But the big question is what else?
I think its a bit of a myth that broadcasters have been sticking religiously to the talent show genre - we only feel its dominant because these shows are basically the only ones really working (and hence, the only ones returning). In just the past few years on British TV, we've had: Totally Saturday, Tonight's the Night, The Magicians, Sing if You Can, Beat the Star, Magic Numbers, Push the Button. etc. (And I wouldn't bet against them being joined by All Star Cast and a few others soon...) And none of them have turned into any sort of hit. In fact, most of them have fallen on their backsides. The Voice is a bit of a by-the-numbers way of getting the BBC back into the big entertainment game - but I don't really see what other compelling options they have. |
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#1014 |
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Join Date: Nov 2005
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Oh well these BBC Budget cuts arent all bad news then
![]() ![]() ...though to be fair to him, he does have a fanbase. I just never expected him to be so regular in peak Saturday night slots. |
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#1015 |
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Cumbria
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I think The X Factor will suffer from Simon and Cheryl not being on the judging panel.
I think all stages will rate lower and the live shows will probably average 11million. SCD will probably hold it's success from last year which was it's highest ever rated series. Seeing as noone has left the panel it will be like putting on a old pair of slippers for viewers. I'm a Celeb will probably do well but it needs good celebs again this year the last two years it has been on a ratings high. |
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#1016 |
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Join Date: Feb 2002
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Of course, should it work and BBC LE has had a very patchy year, then I wish it every success as comparing Strictly with TXF, the sets aren't as overpowering and the audience aren't baying all the time. I reckon should The Voice work, then it could raise moral in BBC LE and bury memories of a certain quiz show with a hare.
Whereas Stritctly is an in-house production from TVC. The production values for Over the Rainbow were so much better than the BBC's own stuff. |
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#1017 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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I assume this will be like Over the Rainbow and not produced by the BBC and no doubt coming from third party studios, such as Fountain.
Whereas Stritctly is an in-house production from TVC.
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#1018 |
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 11,130
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The Voice would basically have a free run airing against a 2010/11 Q1-style ITV1 schedule. It'd have such a good chance of becoming a hit airing from January next year, the BBC will be mad not to launch it then. Like I said yesterday, if The Magicians and SYTYCD, two pretty average shows to say the least, can manage audiences of c.5.5m at that time of the year, unless the The Voice is absolutely terrible (which is unlikely given the money the BBC are reportedly spending on it), it'll surely be getting 6m+, at least initially, against very average competition. Take Me Out is not a big "hitter" as Brekkie puts it - it does very well with the 16-34s but it doesn't appeal to all age groups, a big-hitter is something which gets 7m+ not 4.5-5.0m.
Unless Red or Black becomes a big hit, which I agree with C14E doesn't look too likely (it could be a middling hit), really I don't see any better alternative than to move the Dancing on Ice performance show to Saturdays. Saturdays in Q1 is screaming out for a talent show and it's something which I've suggested they should've done previously anyway. But it's even more important for them now because unless ITV wants to hand the BBC a big hit on the plate which could potentially be a staple for them in the next 5-10 years, surely ITV will have to be aggressive to counteract the Voice becoming a big success? Whilst I agree with both Brekkie and C14E that there's no guarantee that DOI can cope with a Sat/Sun split as well as the current Sun scheduling, the signs are there that the show has a pretty loyal audience: it was averaging 8m+ earlier this year against tough competition like Antiques Roadshow and Top Gear (both 6m at the same time) in the 8-8.30pm half-hour period, so I suspect it'd be able to cope absolutely fine against an untested show like The Voice and potentially prevent it from becoming a breakout hit (there'd still be enough of an audience around for The Voice to be a normal hit though but not a 'big-hitter' I suspect). So if ITV want to prevent The Voice from becoming a massive success and also in the process raise their own primetime shares for Sat/Sun primetime overall, I'd suggest a schedule of: Sat: 19:00- TV Burp, 19:30- Dancing on Ice, 21:00- Take Me Out Sun: 19:00- Dancing on Ice Results, 20:00- Wild at Heart, 21:00- Whitechapel/Scott & Bailey/New Drama... Sat: 19:00- Dancing on Ice, 20:30- Take Me Out, 21:45 Keith Lemon's Bang Tidy Show/Jonathan Ross Sun: 19:00- You've Been Framed, 19:30- TV Burp, 20:00- Dancing on Ice, 21:00- New Drama/Whitechapel/Wild at Heart The Saturday schedule benefits from having DOI at the heart of the schedule. It couldn't go much later as they'd need to pre-record the Sunday show at a decent time. DOI would boost TMO and young-skewing TMO would work well with the late-night comedy/chat (Keith Lemon and Paddy McGuinness next to each other would be great). Sundays would be lower than the last couple of years but they'd still do very well. YBF would get 5m+ and TV Burp would get 6m+ consistently in those slots with much older skewing opposition, whilst a new drama would benefit from DOI's ~8m lead in. I know people have suggested stripping DOI across the weekend before but I think it's really important for them to do so now with BBC1 having a potentially massive hit in their schedule. Quote:
Not sure that's the wisest of decisions from ITV. I would have tried to push it back to September with Saturday/Sunday split for the entire series.
I know its always launched in mid August, or at least for the past couple of years, but I think a 'bad launch' will stick out more with no Simon or Cheryl, plus a few Sunday audition shows could draw the audience back in. (although I'm not sure what they have planned for Sundays so that may not be possible) Quote:
I don't see why The Voice and Let's Dance can't run in the same Saturday schedule for 4 weeks. The schedule could be something like: 18:40- Let's Dance, 20:00- The Voice, 21:00- Lottery Draws, 21:10- Casualty, 22:00- BBC News, 22:25- MOTD. Let's Dance has started at that sort of time before.
As The Voice ought to be top priority for the BBC, it should take the January slot with The Magicians transferred over to Spring. If that results in The Magicians losing viewers, so be it. It's not the Next Big Thing which The Voice could potentially be. Quote:
I'd be a bit surprised if they don't have PoG in the Autumn, at least they know he guarantees them ~3.5m in that Friday slot. Not great but they've seen far worse in that slot before. I think Life Stories would do even worse to be honest: the show was getting 4m with a BGT lead-in and generally 4.5m with a TXF lead-in excluding the hugely inflated Cheryl Cole/Susan Boyle episodes, so if you take away the 25-30% boosts TXF/BGT generally give to programmes airing after them, Life Stories could be rating at just 3m in that Friday 9pm slot. I think they're better off just moving the show to Sunday at 10pm where it originally started where there's less pressure on it to get relatively big figures but it'd still outperform the slot average comfortably, and they could always have special editions with the really big guests on Saturdays as well if they wanted to. I don't really see it as a 9pm programming, but then again I suppose you could say the same thing against Paul O'Grady.
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#1019 |
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: NW England
Posts: 9,649
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Can See Kung Fu Panda rating well for BBC1 maybe 4.m+ against YBF and Odd One In on ITV1. P&T Fool us could get 4m also but unlikely to win the slot against Who Dares Wins. The Marriage Ref may well struggle tonight (Jimmy Carr, Geri Halliwell & Sarah Millican - strictly C4 talent) and Dermot does not seem right to host this either - can see it 1m less than Casualty tonight.
Lee Mack's All Star Cast - against the wrong host, would prefer someone like Kevin Bridges - and the guests are not what you call exciting (Tess,Fern, Blunt oh my!) Frank Skinner is at least watchable. BBC1 made a bad schedule choice, ought had had the news at 9.40 and given this a clear run at 10pm - it clashes with Marriage Ref, CSI NY & Camelot. Then MM Comedy Roadshow could have followed seamlessly. Ratings will be up on last week and I do admire ITV1/BBC1 for trying out new shows despite the production/schedule flaws. |
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#1020 |
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Join Date: Sep 2009
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Isn't The Voice linked to Endemol?
![]() The Voice UK will be co-produced by Talpa and Wall to Wall, the Shed Media company. |
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#1021 |
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Cymru
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Quote:
I think The X Factor will suffer from Simon and Cheryl not being on the judging panel.
Quote:
Isn't The Voice linked to Endemol?
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#1022 |
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: West Midlands
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Reason number 1 why some ITV shows do not do well: The preceding show finishes 6 minutes earlier. Odd One In finished at 19:54. How does that help Penn and Teller exactly?
It's a pity the ad structure was so stringent, because they should where possible try and go straight from programme to programme to try and boost ratings, ie for tonight: 19:15 to 19:19 - Commercials 19:19 to 19:30 - Odd One In, part 1 19:30 to 19:34 - Commercials 19:34 to 19:45 - Odd One In, part 2 19:45 to 19:49 - Commercials 19:49 to 20:00 - Odd One In, part 3 20:00 to 20:01 - Ident 20:01 to 20:12 - Penn and Teller, part 1 20:12 to 20:17 - Commercials 20:17 to 20:28 - Penn and Teller, part 2 20:28 to 20:33 - Commercials 20:33 to 20:44 - Penn and Teller, part 3 20:44 to 20:49 - Commercials 20:49 to 21:00 - Penn and Teller, part 4 21:00 to 21:01 - Ident 21:01 to 21:12 - The Marriage Ref, part 1 21:12 to 21:17 - Commercials 21:17 to 21:28 - The Marriage Ref, part 2 21:28 to 21:33 - Commercials 21:33 to 21:44 - The Marriage Ref, part 3 21:44 to 21:48 - Commercials 21:48 to 21:59 - The Marriage Ref, part 4 21:59 to 22:00 - Ident 22:00 - ITV News Starting late in Odd One In's case is not a problem because there is nothing of note before it. It also means Odd One In can benefit Penn and Teller and Penn and Teller can benefit The Marriage Ref, the breakdown for tonight for instance will show a sizeable dip between 19:55 and 20:00 due to adverts. Of course, I imagine Ofcom rules ban them from having a 5-minute commercial in any way, shape or form. And for anyone who needs reminding of Odd One In's ratings from last year, these are from DS, hence tape-checked: 17/07 - 2.86m (15.4%) 24/07 - 2.67m (15.1%) 31/07 - 2.62m (14.4%) 07/08 - 3.64m (20.6%) 14/08 - 3.01m (17.1%) 21/08 - 4.08m (22.3%) <-- X Factor begins 28/08 - 3.62m (20.3%) 04/09 - 4.23m (24.0%) Series Average = 3.34m (18.65%) On the one hand, it may completely flop and be back in the high 2m's, or it could have benefited from leading in 3 times from The X Factor and be in the low ~4m range. I suspect it'll be mid 3m's though. |
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#1023 |
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Cymru
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I don't see why The Voice and Let's Dance can't run in the same Saturday schedule for 4 weeks. The schedule could be something like: 18:40- Let's Dance, 20:00- The Voice, 21:00- Lottery Draws, 21:10- Casualty, 22:00- BBC News, 22:25- MOTD. Let's Dance has started at that sort of time before.
If the BBC want to give it the best shot they probably need to rest Let's Dance for a year (it's more suited to Comic Relief than Sport Relief anyway). |
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#1024 |
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: nr Peterborough, England
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I dont know why but this "Odd One In", "Penn and Teller" & "The Marriage Ref" looks like a NBC line up.
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#1025 |
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Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,720
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Quote:
On the one hand, it may completely flop and be back in the high 2m's, or it could have benefited from leading in 3 times from The X Factor and be in the low ~4m range. I suspect it'll be mid 3m's though.
On the subject of Lets Dance, it could air on Fridays or Sundays if there is no room for it on a Saturday, they could even strip it on the Monday-Thursday before Sport Relief. It doesn't mean it has to come off air although I agree with Brekkie, it could do with being rested. |
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