Originally Posted by Dancc:
“I'm not convinced ITV1 is in such a great state right now to provide the best launchpad. You could argue that's always been a problem coming off weak summers but this summer has been particularly bad. Nor am I convinced by the new judging lineup. I like Gary but I'm not sure he's the ideal replacement for Cowell. If they wanted a complete fresh start, why is Louis still there? It's all a bit half-hearted really which leads me to think it may not quite be the ratings force it once was, but still very much up the top of the charts obviously. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts at the moment. The fact that ITV1+1 did not exist this time a year ago will impact on the ITV1 only figures straight away.”
Louis is still there because he's actually impossible to replace! I suppose it's a bit like the Idol revamp as well where they kept the only remaining original judge (Randy Jackson) although they transitioned him into a more "Cowell-like" role whereas Louis just seems to be doing what he always does!
The past few years suggest that there's no predicting XF premiere ratings. It always seems to start a bit slow on the publicity front - Cheryl Cole seems to get more publicity sitting in a hotel room than X Factor manages just now! But once things get going that ought to change. In 2009, it premiered a bit lower than expected but then matched that rating in week 2. In 2010, it was surprisingly high then had a lower week 2 rating. The obvious moral there is "wait a bit to get a better picture" although it could also be "stop premiering your biggest show in August".
I still think they could have done more to push the premiere this year but I guess coming up with a strapline for the new series is as much effort as ITV are likely to make. I'd expect a press screening later this week might push things up a gear (assuming there is one? IIRC in 2008 they wheeled out all the judges as part of the screening and did loads of press interviews as well).