Originally Posted by nickynoodle167:
“Yeah, I think they've probably accepted Sep-Dec as a bit of a lost cause”
They haven't. In fact they've taken some noticeable gambles this Fall in attempt to rebuild the network. It remains to be seen if those pay off or not.
Originally Posted by
nickynoodle167:
“I'm a little disappointed they've put Parks & Rec against X Factor, as I believe it could grow in the ratings again this year, personally, I would've sacrificed Community (the lowest rated of Thursday Nights are funny, or whatever it's called these days
).”
Firstly Community will air opposite The X Factor (its Parks & Rec's lead-in).
Secondly short of moving it to a new night there's nowhere NBC could have put Parks where it wouldn't have been against The X Factor - it'll run at 2 hours on Thursday through to October there's really no avoiding it. Not that anyone should be trying to avoid The X Factor.
Thirdly they need to use The Office to launch something new. As funny as Parks & Rec is it has had ample time to catch on and it hasn't.
Originally Posted by nickynoodle167:
“CBS are looking the strongest overall this season as usual, but will be topped by Fox's 16-34 giant, Idol (and X Factor?).”
The general prediction is that Fox will win both Fall and the season as a whole in the 18-49 demo. But that's working under the assumption that The X Factor and Terra Nova aren't complete bombs and also takes into account that Fox will be propped up by what should be a highly rated World Series this year.
CBS will finish second whilst the Sunday Night Football and Superbowl combo should see NBC finish third with ABC in fourth.
Originally Posted by C14E:
“Football has been massive so far - another all time high on Sunday with 25.8m. With The Superbowl as well, that's a huge boost for NBC. Of course, they'll need it in the fall. I think The Playboy Club is a strong candidate to be one of the first cancellations of the season. It's hard to guage how well The Sing Off will hold up against DWTS. And Wednesdays look really weak. In fact, NBC's biggest shot at a hit show this fall is probably the ITV Studios produced Prime Suspect. But with a lead-in from a (potentially weak) sitcom and stiff competition, even that is in for a difficult ride.”
I'll be amazed if NBC are the first network to cancel something this season although that's purely for PR reasons rather than my confidence in the strength of their line-up. I'll also say that having seen the pilot I think your faith in Prime Suspect is mislaid. The Playboy Club is easily the strongest of their Fall dramas and I think in the best position to succeed. In theory it should stand out against the two procedurals it'll compete with. When it comes to The Sing-Off I don't think anyone is expecting it to be a runaway hit but I'll be surprised if it doesn't drag up their Monday night average vs. last year and I think that's really all they want from it.
Originally Posted by C14E:
“ABC's male comedy block has all the makings of a total disaster. But DWTS and Body of Proof should hold ensure Tuesdays stay respectable (albeit they'll be 4th). Wednesday should be OK - 10pm may be an issue again, though (as it has been for a decade). But perhaps Revenge can squeeze out an audience between CSI and Law Order: SVU? Sunday is the big night for ABC - 2 new shows and both fairly risky. I give Pan Am more hope than The Playboy Club, especially with the Desperate Housewives lead-in. But Once Upon A Time doesn't seem like hit material. I think ABC could be in for a difficult season.”
The theory behind the ABC comedy block is sound (with Glee dominating the 8PM hour trying to skew male is a good idea) unfortunately I'd agree that it looks to be a disaster in the making. The quality simply isn't there. I wouldn't be overly confident about Body of Proof. It had a fairly easy time of it last year with The Good Wife on CBS but in theory Unforgettable should pose a tougher challenge. I agree though this season looks like it'll be a rocky one for ABC and it deserves to be. Outside of Modern Family they've produced several seasons of absolute disasters that have gone largely unnoticed because of the complete meltdown that has been NBC.
Originally Posted by C14E:
“CBS have their big 9pm gamble with Person of Interest. I'm not really sure what it will do - it seems like one of those shows that could be a big hit or a total bomb. And How To Be A Gentleman at 8.30pm looks poor so if they both fail, Thursdays are going to become an issue (and The Mentalist will feel the pain as well). Unforgettable seems like the kind of thing that ought to go over well on CBS with a nice slot as well. I'm guessing that Two and a Half Men starts up from last year but ends up losing quite a bit by Christmas.”
I remain unsure what the expectation is for Person of Interest. They can't possibly expect it to just land in that spot and be huge but by putting it in that slot they've created the expectation that it'll just land there and be huge. They seem to have set themselves up for disaster here especially as I'm not convinced it'll appeal to the in-built 'CBS audience'. I'm not sure The Mentalist will feel the pain if it bombs though. It managed to stay fairly consistent paired with a slowly dying CSI last season. Two and a Half Men is an impossible thing to predict because I have no idea what goes on in the minds of that audience...
Originally Posted by C14E:
“FOX are the most interesting for me. Glee is likely to start down from last year. But I'd imagine New Girl will do better than Running Wilde so the 9pm hour on Tuesdays ought to be stronger. But it's all about the big shows - Terra Nova and X Factor. They don't even need to do anything too big to ensure that FOX win September-December. Of course, history tells us that no matter how lofty the ambition, there's every chance that they could both be down at 2.0 by November sweeps if they don't connect with audiences.”
Fox seem to have shot themselves in the foot slightly with New Girl - they released the pilot for free on iTunes and the audience reviews for it haven't been as overwhelmingly good as they hoped. However my concern for that 9PM hour isn't New Girl (the Glee lead-in should see that stay relatively fine) but Raising Hope. I predict collapse now its at 9:30 but maybe its stronger than I give it credit for. I think however that Tuesday 9:30 slot is going to become something of a deadzone for Fox.
And I remain convinced that The X Factor isn't going to be anywhere near as big as people think. I think it'll do fine but I don't think its going to be all the conquering Deathstar that American Idol is or at least was. Ultimately I think it'll be comparable to Dancing with the Stars rather than Idol but we'll see. I really hope Terra Nova pays off for them though. Ambition on that scale deserves some kind of reward and it would be nice to see something give the networks a little more confidence to be big and epic again.