I don't think it can get anywhere near 10m in overnights - but I stand to be corrected, a lot of TXF viewers are going to turn over by default to another channel. Anything above an 8.5m overnight would be considered a healthy figure.

The Series 1 finale overnight was


and that was at the height of TXF ratings

Oops! I was looking at the final ratings in your post, grahamzxy, but talked about overnights in my post! I meant to say that based on the S1 finale, the S2 premiere final rating should be well over 10 million.

It will be very interesting to see the overnights and finals for both Downton Abbey and Spooks. For UK viewers who like both shows, would it make more sense to watch Spooks live and record Downton Abbey, since you could skip through the commercials? Or if you couldn't watch both shows tonight, do you watch Downton because everyone will be talking about it tomorrow, and save Spooks for Monday night?

I stand corrected.

I think Spooks will be around 4.4m-4.8m overnights and Downton Abbey around 8.2m-8.8m (exc +1). Even though they mostly attract different audiences there will inevitably be at least some overlap and both will be dented to some extent even if only very slightly. It's to early in the season for Downton Abbey to get 10m + in my opinion. X-Factor was pulling 15m overnights when Downton got to 10m last year, whereas at the moment X-Factor will "only" be around 11m. I expect we will see an increase in Downton's ratings as the series progresses though, there are a few newspapers with Downton and even Spooks on the front page tomorrow (Monday).

Emmy News:

I think I stand by my guess of around 9.5 million including HD and +1. There has been a lot of hype around this series, though Spooks is tough competition and the Xfactor as said above isnt near its peak in audience yet,

On the papers;
The Independent and its mini paper 'i' both have Downton v Spooks while the Daily Mail and The Telegraph only have Downton. You'll have to guess what the Star has....

Cut out the silly baiting - it is not necessary, and is totally ignoring the more mature discussion that had gone before.

No, I wouldn't. But I might point out that despite the addition of Scots and the Downtongasm, it had rated lower than it ended its last run. Academic anyway, because it simply can't fail to overnight in the 10-11m bracket, possibly more as you would think at least some new viewers tuned in to see what all the fuss was about.

I don't understand why Downtonistas on here can underpredict with abandon, yet if I'm perceived to do it, you all come down on me like a ton of bricks.....

I don't think Spooks will do very well in the overnights as a) it is ending; b) there is a BBC1 repeat tonight at 11pm; c) it's audience is young so timeshift a lot is likely; d) those that didn't watch it can catch up on iPlayer

However, given that 26 million will have probably been watching TV in the 9pm hour last night, I'll go for 4.3m (16.5%).

Worth noting that last year's overnights included the Scots too (who were watching Taggart). It's the officials which didnt include the Scots. I think dave01 makes some good points: when DA managed c10m last year for its final episode it was up against a documentary which had only 2.8m and it had a lead-in of 14.9m. Yesterday, Spooks probably had 2m more than the documentary, the lead-in would've been ~4m lower and fewer people would've been watching TV last night than the ~27m who watched on that night in November, so in theory that would affect DA's overnights and negate any rise it could've experienced from the hype. I know I would've predicted ~10m (or close to that) had it been up against another sub-3m documentary last night, but I think it's almost inevitable that the Spooks clash will mean that both shows lose viewers and don't reach their full potential, as well as the other factors mentioned. We'll find out soon, I guess...

Overnights in:

Downton (9.3m) Spooks (4.6m) Strikeback (462k) in the battle of the dramas

Source: John Williams, Sky Scheduler

I think that includes +1 for Downton.

Downton Abbey debuts with 8.9m (inc HD) - nearly double Spooks' 4.6m - but not quite topping DA's best ever overnights of 10.08m.

Source: Michael Rosser

X Factor - 11.2, 42.3%
Downton - 9.0, 34.6%
Spooks - 4.6, 17%
BB - 1.2, 4.6%
Just Not That In To You - 1.4, 5.2%
ITV News - 3.7, 20.3%
BBC News 3.3, 13.5%

Antiques Roadshow: 5.5

Downton by name, Downton by nature!

Here's series 1's overnights for Downton Abbey:

26/09 - 7.69m (30.1%)
03/10 - 8.78m (33.1%)
10/10 - 8.30m (31.4%)
17/10 - 9.05m (33.3%)
24/10 - 8.65m (32.6%)
31/10 - 9.02m (33.3%)
07/11 - 9.94m (37.3%)

Higher than all but one of last year's overnights, not bad at all for it. In fact, it's rather good.

Very good

8.9m has to be seem as a bit disappointing given the hype and the extra Scots. You'd think DA would be a bigger draw than Taggart even north of the border. Brilliant for Spooks to be beaten by less than a 2 to 1 margin. It should have been worse, and you'd think Spooks will timeshift better than DA.

DA might just nose ahead of expensive megaflop DW's combined 10m once iPlayer/Itvplayer and timeshift is added....

TXF didn't set the world alight either....

#XFactor tops again with a massive 11.478m and a 12.84m peak, 43.3% share. Big!

Source: ChristPA

That rating includes +1.


Yeah it's a great rating IMO. It may have got 10m had it not aired against Spooks, aired in October or had a 15m lead-in from TXF. But given the different factors yesterday, just over 9 million is very good IMO. It also had a higher share than all of those episodes, bar the final one. It also has the potential to grow for the rest of the series.

if 2 programs on the BBC got 11.2 and 8.9m we would not have heard the end of it but because it's on ITV You say it's disappointing. Can't you give any credit to ITV.

"Brilliant for Spooks to be beaten by less than a 2 to 1 margin."

I fail to see how you fail to see how this comes across.

And all your other pronouncements....

Your posts get more and more ridiculous as every day goes by. You're probably doing it for a reaction, what a sad life you must lead.

Re - X Factor:

As thus...

OVERNIGHT RATINGS
2009 Auditions Average: 10.3m (46%)
2010 Auditions Average: 11.0m (46%)

2011
Auditions 1- 10.8m (45.7%) / 11.3m
Auditions 2- 10.1m (42.8%) / 10.6m
Auditions 3- 10.5m (43.4%) / 11.1m
Auditions 4- 10.6m (43.6%) / 11.1m
Auditions 5- 10.3m (37.8%) / 10.8m
Auditions 6- 10.8m (44.5%) / 11.1m
Auditions 7- 11.2m (42.3%) / 11.5m

Leading to an overnight Auditions Average of 10.6m (43%) excluding +1/11.1m including +1.

ok, perhaps "brilliant" wasn't the right word

"acceptable" perhaps, or "better than expected"....