Looks like Dead and Crap won't be troubling your 2011 Top 20, DMN....

Just realised that because of the football, D&C takes up another 100+ minutes of prime ITV1 real estate next Saturday. Oh dear...

I'm amazed that anyone actually takes responsibility for Colour of Money!

But he's right about Red or Black. It just doesn't work as a format. No amount of glitzy sets or Ant & Dec can solve that fatal issue.

I suspect it will end up in proper flop territory soon. Perhaps tonight against Eastenders. At a similar cost to drama, 4.5m by the second episode doesn't look good. The results did slightly better with Corrie helping, but nobody will be pleased with it. And that results rating will fade over the week.

I may be wrong (although these calculations have been pretty close to the mark before compared to what is reported in trade magazines) but a while ago I wrote this post about potential advertising revenues for Red or Black and costs:

Now, if those estimates are right, 5-6m if it can sustain at that level, would make them money given the audience profile of the show (27% and 31% of first 2 shows's audiences were in the lucrative 16-34 bracket). Not a big profit, which they may have been hoping for, given the way they've moved things around such as Corrie, but a bit of profit nonetheless (though nowhere near the amounts TXF or BGT make).

So, I wonder if it does hold up at 5-6m for the rest of the week (and that's a big IF as you say!), if it would get another series, even just to save face? It would be quite embarrassing for Simon Cowel/Ant and Dec/ITV/Syco if the show got axed. Although it's rated below general expectations, even if at 5-6m levels it could be making some money. Let's not forget, that ITV routinely airs some drama series which get 5-6m but probably don't make a (significant or in some cases any) profit from them due to high costs of these shows. But they continue to make some of these dramas for various reasons: they hold up ITV1's % share which is important for CRR purposes (a mechanism which decides how much advertisers pay for ad spots). They could easily spend money on a £100k factual show getting 3.5m than a £700k drama series getting 5m and make more profit with the factual show, indeed increasingly they are doing that, but they still have their fair share of shows which aren't really money makers but are there to pull up the share and for reputation purposes.

The reputation bit doesn't really apply with Red or Black here as it's been panned, but I wonder if it can sustain a 5-6m average, if ITV believe it's something worth doing again (maybe at a reduced cost and rejigged weekly format) because it's been rating better than other shows in the genre and slots (as you'd expect really) but still possibly making them money at the same time, even if it's a small bit? So rather than being a cash cow for ITV like other Syco shows, be the sort of show which pulls up the slot averages, makes a little bit of money (via ad revenue and international sales if another broadcaster is silly enough to buy it), and that's all - similar to a few of their drama series. If it does even worse next time, then bin it.

This, of course, is all under the scenario of it staying above 5m for the rest of the week, which frankly it might fail to do as soon as tonight when it faces EE.

That was a good Corrie rating for a Sunday and exposes ROB even more as without Corrie viewers this would likely have fallen further.

Corrie possibly dragged DOWN by a Cowell/Ant and Dec show around it. Goodness me.

Aside from all the other points I made yesterday about Red or Black other things have bothered me about it that do not seem to have been explained. Or if explained on air not well enough as they kept nagging me. So I assume other viewers - not good for a show where you have to believe that it is a truly random game where anyone can win a million,

Like - who decides which 1000 make it to each show out of the vastly greater number of applicants (they cited over 100,000)? If it is a handpicked telegenic rent a crowd then it dilutes the anyone can win a million/all down to chance theme. If it was via some other early elimination round - why do we not see it?

Also - what if say 900 choose one colour in the early games when they have a free choice - leaving them with nowhere near the numbers required for the later rounds? It is statistically unlikely but if truly random (especially given the visibly obvious psychologically understandable bias towards people choosing red) still possible.

Plus - we never see the independent adjudicator who has such a massive influence by selecting in the later key rounds who gets a free choice and who does not. This leaves you wondering if there is some way to try to ensure the best outcome - like last night where the one whom I bet every viewer wanted to have a spin from the final eight (given his genuinely touching need for the money) actually won through. This doubt is probably absurd but it is left there because there are these none random and unseen interferences from an unknown, unseen person late in the game when those choices effect the visible play.

Incidentally, ITV were desperately fighting to push tonight's ROB by having both millionaires on This Morning today where they suggested that an 'extra' show had been added to the run next Saturday???

But as Tuesday's was always known to be off because of the football this seems unlikely as it had to end on Saturday if there were making 7 shows.

And with the X Factor sandwich that night they were never going to miss that opportunity.

After the luck theyve had in 2011, I suspect ITV might be off gameshows for a bit!

Though I believe they are already conceiving a new ratings-busting format involving badgers and cake-making...

Two days in and I still don't think we can really tell if RoB is a success or failure, ratings-wise (it's a turkey content-wise, but right now I'm discussing the numbers).

You can't argue with the fact that the opening show drew a big audience - maybe at the lower end of ITV1's hopes/expectations, but it was a very sizeable number of viewers nonetheless.

Yes, last night's was down, but it started earlier and had no lead-in to speak of. Interestingly, the first show built its audience throughout, suggesting that people progressively 'found' it while flicking around, and those that did come to it liked it.

But then - maddeningly for analysis purposes - the second show LOST viewers as it went on, despite the fact it was building up to its climax.

I admit it, I'm confused.

The only thing I think i can say with certainty is that its uneven scheduling this week is going to hinder rather than help it.

I applied online and got selected to go to the stage at Wembley, this was done via an email and then a further telephone call. Only about 900 were selected for each group though and then around 100 didn't show up. The rest of the 1000 were made up from the participants family member/friend who went with them. I took my mate and he also ended up being part of the show.
Each 1000 is also from a different part of the country, hence my section were all people from the South West.

The first selection when you sit on the seats is truly random. They just told you to go through the red or black door and then sit on the seats. I picked the correct colour and got through. I would say each show they did the selection was always roughly 60% red and 40% black.

The next stage is the fortune cookie. Here there are only 128 correct cookies, so they guarantee how many go through to the next stage which was on another day somewhere around the country. So basically as long as they have more than 128 correctly guess the first stage they are fine.

Saturday's results show breakdown was quite bizarre too. It peaked at 9.25pm?! Not 9.15pm straight after TXF, not 9.35/9.40pm when the person was winning the £1m, but 9.25pm:

21:15- 7.2914m
21:20- 6.9693m
21:25- 7.5325m
21:30- 6.5563m
21:35- 6.7661m
21:40- 6.8108m

Could you please post a breakdown for ITV1 last night between 6.45-8pm? Also a breakdown for BBC1 in that same time? I wonder if RoB's growth during the 7pm hour was just a 'normal growth' that programmes on other channels experience then anyway, as more people tune on the telly.

I always thought the Sunday Red or Black? would suffer. It started really early, and Sundays aren't really big ratings nights unless it is X Factor or Dancing on Ice. I think tonight will be telling. The 8pm start with 9:30pm results show will become consistent and hopefully see ratings build over the week.

The article on Celeb Big Brother's ratings was good. The new Barb figures show that the ratings are licking the 3m ceiling. Channel 5 will be over the moon. I know lady week the rAtings dropped, but as we head to the final ratings should begin to grow again.

Yes, I am pleasantly surprised by the Four Lions rating, it's one of the most uncommercial films imaginable, there's nobody famous in it (apart from Benedict Cumberbatch for two minutes) and a lot of people will simply find the subject matter offensive. And brilliant though he is, Chris Morris is not a mainstream name at all. I was expecting under a million for it, so that's very surprising.


The huge scale has been talked up as the important thing, but I never know why these things have to be on a big scale. I've said this before but if you look at all the big game show successes in recent years, you've got Millionaire, which may have a big prize but only one contestant at any one time and the appeal is the fact it's so intense, plus The Weakest Link, which has a tiny budget, and Deal or No Deal which is filmed in a bunker.

Big shows simply don't succeed because you don't get close enough to the contestants - there was a great example on Challenge recently, the final series of The Krypton Factor, which had a radical revamp with a massive set, which looked highly impressive, but it ended up with the contestants being interchangable and it was too hard to see what was going on. Ice Warriors is another one. And there's NTV on Noel's House Party, originally a simple and brilliant idea but then it kept on getting more and more ambitious - the person being surprised at a cinema, that kind of thing - which meant the victim was more or less a walk-on, and people got bored of it.

These things may be exciting when you're there, but they mean nothing in your living room. It just makes it seem more and more like a party you're not invited to.

There was a big thing in that Mail feature about every game in Red Or Black had to be personally approved by Cowell himself, but the thing is, Cowell doesn't really seem to know that much about television. He's a record company executive. Nobody remembers this now, do they - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/3054999.stm

Thanks for the inside report Swift 89. Still would be possible that less than 128 got through the first free choice as I suggested - though statistically improbable unless Derren Brown was the warm up man.

I assume they have a plan if that happens - eg a wild card reentry for some of the 'losers'.

Might actually liven up the duller early rounds when there are far too many people and hundreds are being rapidly eliminated if that happened.

9.25pm was when Casualty finished.

I think they have to axe it. In part because I don't think 5m is achievable throughout the week.

But also because, as I discussed last night, they need to try again. Unless Cowell believes this can grow (and there's no reason why he should) then I can't see him wanting it kept around for the sake of it. It's not as if he ever kept an X Factor winner signed for appearances despite poor album sales. And there's no chance of it selling well internationally (especially in the US). Nor of it getting an increased budget or increased hours.

It makes more sense for everyone to move on to something new.

Indeed. Luckily for ITV, even if the next week doesn't match their expectations, their drama portfolio looks very strong with "the three D's":

- Downton Abbey (~8m)
- Doc Martin (~8m)
- DCI Banks (~4.5m/5m and a good alternative to BBC1's Friday comedy line-up)

They will win Sundays and Mondays comfortably, I did hear a rumour that Spooks is going on Sundays as it is its last series, but not sure how accurate that is. Tuesdays should be a BBC1 win, however they normally put drama turkeys on Tuesdays, so that may be a bad omen for The Body Farm, however it should still win the slot versus 71 Degrees North. Wednesdays depends on whether ITV have football or Midsomer Murders, Thursdays should be BBC win, however they've got the final episode of Torchwood versus Billy Connolly so there maybe a surprise there. Fridays will be even I think, maybe a slight BBC1 win, but both should be in the ~5m range as Outnumbered/WILTY vs DCI Banks should both in theory be watched by different audiences. Saturday's will be as expected.

I imagine after this week they won't need to sweat until mid December when the post-I'm a Celebrity doldrums come in.


Thanks for that info rzt, much appreciated. Nothing else in particular to say, apart from anything can happen in the next few days - while Red or Black will be down tonight, Wednesday and Thursday should be ITV victories, and I would be surprised to see anything other than ITV wins on both of those nights. Friday will be interesting.


If it did what they wanted it to, start high and stay high, I imagine they would have added an extra show, but not a chance now.


I think the 21:25 'growth' was due to John Bishop's Britain starting on BBC One at that time? So about 600k tuned from BBC1 to ITV1 when Casualty finished? Not sure if the BBC1 breakdown shows something to that effect... am surprised there was no big ITV growth though for the spin.

They will surely do a Celebrity Red or Black before axing.

If they do tweak the show and add a serial element I suspect they will test it out this way as it will add viewers given the known faces playing and the massive win for charity possible.

It could all be done in two nights around, say, The X Factor final.

Since Big Brother cant even find a dozen celeb's, I'm not sure where they would find 10,000

They only need 16 and eliminate from there - all live in the studio/arena, with the final 4 going through to the last night.

The vast numbers where you spend half the show waiting for a small enough residue to even begin to care about is the biggest problem.

Oh no, they'd just find 8 and have it as an hour long. Red or Black: X Factor Special must be screaming at ITV for when there's only 8 contestants left....

For anyone interested in CBB ratings, The officials are timeshifting better than they did in C4.

http://www.insidebigbrother.net/ratings

Scroll down and find the BARB officials.

And in my opinion, I think RoB will dip again tonight, only by a bit though, I predict 4.4m and 5.3m including +1.

I don't think that's where he went wrong. It wasn't about the production, it was all about the format being flawed. Cowell plainly does know quite a bit about television, but gameshows are a different beast to "reality" elimination shows. Even the other Executive Producers don't really come from that background. Most of the gameshow brains seem to be at Endemol. Of course, a Commissioning Editor should be able to identify certain flaws from reading a one paragraph treatment.

But they didn't - and this particular project would have gone right up to Peter Fincham. I actually think Syco & ITV doing this together may have been a bad idea. Almost as if, with XF & BGT on air, they couldn't possibly just try and make a "smaller" show that might grow. Partly because Syco had taken so long to put a new format on the air. With hindsight, you could almost say something like this was inevitable.

But that's it now. ITVS need to keep looking both in-house and with co-productions. Syco will no doubt review what went wrong and consider their future strategy as well. Keep swinging...

If ITVS need some hope, they could consider this... Nobody has had more reality TV flops than Mark Burnett.

Incidentally on This Morning last week whilst promoting ROB Eammon Holmes accidentally called it Red or Dead.

Maybe he is psychic after all?

That's not a 50:50 bet anymore...

Red or Dead I am aware of being a fashion brand, so its posible he mispoke

It was clearly just a slip, of course, and Ruth quickly corrected him.

Suspect ITV were not amused though.

I bet she did, as did the voices in her ear peice.