Originally Posted by Georged123:
“What do you think they expected then?”
I don't think they expected 8-10m figures every single night, as you suggested. If they did, and we don't have any quotes from any representatives that they were hoping for those sorts of figures, I think they're deluded. There was maybe a possibility for the launch to get it, but that's it IMHO.
Here's a few reasons why:
1. ITV knows that if they air a programme next to TXF on a Saturday night, it will most likely get ratings about 20% higher than if those shows don't air next to TXF. They know this from the experiences they've had with Family Fortunes/The Cube/Odd One In/Life Stories to name just a few shows from the last year. With this in mind, it was pretty much a guarantee that ROB would drop off from the 1st Saturday episode rating to the next 5 episodes which didn't have the luxury of airing next to TXF. Even if ROB had somehow managed to almost miraculously launch with 9m on Saturday, it probably would've dropped to 7m on the Sunday, outside your 8-10m zone due to what I've said. Even established shows like IAC drop from when they have an XF lead-in to when they don't, so I dunno why people think ITV were expecting its ratings to remain stable or even grow. If that had happened, it would've been unprecedented.
2. There is no precedent for a new game show in the last decade to get 8-10m in their first series (or indeed any series). Yes, I'm perfectly aware that this was an expensive show to make compared to other game shows, however that doesn't automatically mean it would instantly get 8-10m. You could do the same kind of comparison with dramas: a series like Hustle costs about double per hour to make than a series like Waterloo Road. Do we expect Hustle to get double the no. of viewers that WR is getting? Of course, we don't. We can do the same sort of comparison with factual: a Sir David Attenbrough factual series like Life had a reported budget of almost £1m per episode compared to a factual show like DIY SOS which I suspect costs no more than £200k. Do we expect Life to have gotten 5x as many viewers as DIY SOS or 8-10m? No, we didn't. I could do those kind of comparisons for shows on any given channel.
Generally it's true, that the more money you spend on a show, the more chance you have of getting higher ratings. But the relationship between the two factors (cost and actual no. of viewers) aren't directly proportional to each other, and broadcasters are well aware of that.
3. Putting the show up against EastEnders pretty much instantly ruled out 8-10m ratings on Monday and Friday nights. If you look at the breakdowns of BGT week, even BGT was just about barely managing or even struggling on certain nights to get those figures against EE when head to head, so IMO there was absolutely no chance whatsoever of a new show like Red or Black managing it on day three. You might ask: "Why did ITV put it up against EE, then?" It's probably because doing it this way, they get more adverts in than if they ran a single 90-minute show. In a single 90 minute show, they would've only been allowed 7 ad breaks in and around the show. With the way it is, they can have 8 ad breaks in and around the show. I don't agree with this strategy as from a ratings POV, airing against EE will always put a dent in the ratings than if you're not airing against EE, and for a brand new series that can have long term effects. But from a commercial point of view, ITV probably believe that extra ad break means they make more money, even if it means fewer people are potentially watching.
4. The only newspaper article to give any kind of indication of how much advertising spots were going for during Red or Black was this
one which suggested advertisers were paying "as much as £55,000 for a 30-second slot". If 8-10m was expected, bearing in mind the kind of audience profile Syco shows get, advertisers would've been paying over 50% more than that figure quoted.
Quote:
“Everything about the show says to me they truly expected it to "one of the biggest TV events of the year", the budget, the talent, the scheduling. It seems to me that ITV have pushed it to the moon to make it event TV but forgot about the terrible format.
I keep hearing about how TXF/SCD/BGT launched to sub 5m ratings and why would ITV expect Red or Black launch far higher than that. Would ITV have spent so much money and dented their top show by forcing it to air at 9pm every night as well as losing Jonathan Ross' new show an 11m lead-in just to get the same ratings as countless other entertainment/gameshows?”
I agree they would've expected ROB to launch quite a bit higher than TXF/SCD/BGT due to the way it was scheduled next to a current big-hitter, which none of those shows were able to do when they launched. In that respect, it did manage to get a launch night rating about 2m higher than those shows - no surprise there.
Don't get me wrong - I don't think the figures ROB's been getting the past two days are good and I do agree that ITV would've wanted more than the c.5m it's getting. But I just don't think they would've had 8-10m as the minimum target, even with all the factors you've mentioned. At this point, I would call it a disappointment rather than a straight out flop. Over the next few days, if ratings fall, I might change my verdict.
As for Corrie being dented, let's wait until the full week ratings are in. The Sunday episode actually rated higher than how many of the non-Monday episodes have been doing recently. Sure, the Monday episode was down about 1m from what it would've got. But I think the Wednesday-Friday episodes will probably rate similar or better than how it normally would've done, so overall it's probably not been dented. Re: JR not getting an XF lead-in for episode 1, I don't think it's an issue. First of all, it's a chat show so I don't think it's vital for it to launch off TXF like a new drama series as people know what JR's all about and will tune in depending on the guests- last year Piers Morgan's first episode off TXF was one of his lowest ratings in the series because it just depends on the guests mainly. I actually think it's probably going to be a good thing in the long run that he didn't launch off TXF as it manages expectations. It means that instead of JR starting high due to a big-promoted launch inflated by an XF lead-in (it could've launched high 4's the other night) and then ratings declining as the series goes on, JR's ratings have started decently and should in theory pick up (or at least remain stable) once it does get TXF lead-ins for episodes 3-8. From a PR point of view, that's going to be much better than the other Daybreak-esque scenario (start relatively high but then drop like a stone) and reduce the bad press JR could potentially get as we often see with these BBC to ITV moves.
against EE, around the same as Countryside Kitchen, The Lakes etc
