Originally Posted by rzt:
“It's been a poor year so far for new light entertainment shows on ITV1. Here's the overnight series averages:
1 - 5.0m (22%) - Red or Black
2 - 4.1m (21%) - Sing if You Can
3 - 4.1m (16%) - The Biggest Loser
4 - 3.4m (16%) - Penn & Teller: Fool Us
5 - 2.4m (10%) - Born To Shine
6 - 2.3m (09%) - Show Me The Funny
7 - 2.0m (10%) - The Marriage Ref
Ratings include HD, +1, and generally are tape-checked
Some questions have to be raised at ITV Headquarters about how poor those sets of figures generally are. Pretty much all of them underperformed or flopped. 20% is the mark they ought to be hitting - more than that for something as expensive as ROB. I can now see SIYC returning due to all those failures, but even that was boosted by airing before BGT. So if you consider TBL's renewal as a 'success' even though its numbers were nothing to shout out about, it's been a success rate of 1/7 (maybe 2/7 at a push with SIYC). Simply not good enough.”
I agree, that's a really poor hit rate. I haven't been impressed by Elaine Bedell at ITV at all. The other new shows she has commissioned for ITV since she joined in 2009 are: Odd One In, Magic Numbers, The Whole 19 Yards, Push The Button, Take Me Out, Popstar To Operastar, Paul O'Grady Live, Marco's Kitchen Burnout, Michael Winner's Dining Stars, Comedy Rocks, The Door, 71 Degrees North and It's Paul Burling. Of those, only Take Me Out can be described as a success, with 71DN doing okay for the slot it was in. So she's had a hit rate of 1 or 2/19 so far, which is diabolical. The Biggest Loser was actually commissioned by the factual department so she wasn't even responsible for that. I think they need to get rid of her as she's not done well in the role at all. She has 2 new commissions airing this Autumn: Holding Out For A Hero and High Stakes. Of those 2, I think High Stakes will definitely flop as the format sounds dreadful. I do think Holding Out For A Hero could be a small hit but it isn't exactly going to be the next big thing.
As for Red or Black, I doubt it'll be back. A 5.0m average for a new entertainment show looks pretty good on paper but it isn't really good enough considering the huge budget, the critical mauling and the fact that the ratings dropped throughout the week. They might just take a punt and bring it back weekly next year but Cowell shouldn't bank on it. The format just wasn't good enough.
Thinking about it, a better format for Red or Black would be to begin each show (airing weekly) with 8 contestants live in the studio. Each contestant would begin the show with £50,000, and would have to guess red or black on 4 separate challenges. In the first challenge, they could 'bet' anything from £1,000 to £10,000, and up to £20k in the second, £30k in the third and £40k in the fourth. If they guess correctly they'd win the amount they bet, but if they bet incorrectly they'd lose the money they bet. So say a contestant with £50k bet £7k on red on the first challenge, if they got it right they'd have £57k, but they'd have £43k if they got it wrong. Each contestant would be able to abstain from one bet only if they choose to, but they'd have to use their abstain wisely. At the end of the fourth challenge the 4 contestants with the most money would go through with the money they have left, and the other 4 would leave with nothing. This format would mean the contestants would actually have to do something, as they'd have to play the game wisely when deciding how much to bet on each challenge (and whether to bet at all).
In the next round the 4 remaining contestants would have to bet red or black on another challenge. This time however they could bet up to £100,000 on the challenge (if they have that amount after the first 4 challenges). At the end of this, the 2 contestants with the most money would go through, whilst the other 2 would leave with £5,000 each for getting to that stage of the show (or less if they had less than £5k in their pot).
Then there would be 2 contestants left. The absolute maximum amount they could have in their pot at this point would be £250k, but obviously that's very unlikely. They'd then both have to decide whether to go for the final spin or not. They'd decide individually on a keypad or something, and here is how it would work: If both contestants decided to do the final spin, then one contestant would have to pick red, and other would have to pick black - one would win £1m (or perhaps £500k if ITV don't want it to be £1m again) and the other would leave with nothing. If one decided to do the final spin and the other decided not to, the person who decided not to spin would take home the amount of money they have in their pot, and the person who decided to spin would pick either red or black and win either £1m or nothing. However, if both contestants decided not to spin, both would leave with nothing. This format would mean the contestants would have to decide whether to risk spinning for £1m or nothing, or opt out and take home the money they've won throughout the show, but again there is the chance they could end up with nothing.
It'd probably run for 75 minutes and would have to be weekly. I think they'd have a bit more success with that than the current format which has too many contestants that do absolutely nothing.