Originally Posted by
Thrombin:
“I know it's a bit off topic but I think I need a right to reply here 
First, a pro-Faye thread doesn't have to be an anti-Louise thread. She's not my favourite housemate by any means but I do quite like her.
Second, I'm not saying, definitively, that Louise was being self-sacrificing with her vote. I seem to recall her being surprised when Aaron mentioned she could have got a 5 way by putting Tom or Alex up. So she may have not realized she had that option. However, it was, in my opinion, a more dangerous thing to do than the five way so, if she had understood what she was doing, then I think it took guts and, her choice of opponent aside, commendable.”
She nominated Faye like she always nominates Faye. Her choice of opponent can't be set aside. She picked someone she thought she had a good chance of beating. There was nothing commendable about it.
Quote:
“Third, those percentages make sense in terms of Louise's decision because as far as she is concerned all results are equally probable. She has no knowledge of how she, or any of the others, would fare against her. In the absence of knowledge the probability of each result has to be weighted equally.”
That does not make sense. If you don't know, you don't know. It's not a reason to act as if you did know that everyone had an equal chance.
Besides, she did not have no knowledge. She heard Faye booed, for example, as
BMLisa pointed out.
Quote:
“Fourth, I'm not forgetting anything about the mechanics of a vote to save. At the end of the day, in order to be evicted in a five way four other housemates have to be more popular than she is. To be evicted in a two way, only one needs to be more popular. Therefore, there's more chance of her going in a two way. I'm actually astonished and disappointed that this isn't blatantly obvious to you
”
I think that's nonsense. You can't even use the excuse you did with Louise, that " as far as she is concerned all results are equally probable", because "she has no knowledge of how she, or any of the others, would fare against her."
You do not have no knowledge. (Neither did she; but you have more.)
HMs do not have an equal chance of going and it's misleading to assume that they do.
The way you describe the 5-way vote, it could just as well be a vote to evict because you ignore the "tactical" aspects. But instead, a vote-to-save puts those who want to evict a HM (the people who'd booed Faye, for example) at a disadvantage, because it's not clear how best to vote, and the "get her out" vote will tend to split.
And a two-way is not the same thing, just with only two in it. In a two-way, the difference between vote-to-save and vote-to-evict effectively vanishes.