Originally Posted by rzt:
“Yeah, I can see why they'd want to do a TMO spin-off and delay the start of the series till 2012. On ITV2, about 0.5m would be decent for that time of the year on a Saturday night, with its young-skewing audience. Speaking of Take Me Out, I do think there is quite a lot of potential with this show. Obviously it's a bit of trash/guilty pleasure TV, but considering how it skews - 30% in the 16-34s/more popular than shows like SCD and DOI in the demo - ITV needs to make a bigger deal about it. What I mean by that is try and get some newspaper/magazine support like other 'reality' shows and "leak" stories of contestants, have a press launch, have deals with magazines where the girls model for them etc. I suppose having a spin-off show is someway towards "making a bigger deal" about it. The third series of reality shows (I know it's not really 'reality' but you know what I mean) is when they tend to break out and I think the potential is there with TMO to go above its 4.5-5.0m level of ratings if it's given that extra marketing push. I would advise ITV that rather than spending a lot of money on marketing for a new entertainment show, which will most likely flop if recent track record is anything to go by, spend that money on promotionally pushing TMO a lot next series to try and get it into the 5-6m mark consistently. I think it can get there- it's the type of show which can generate the "buzz" to get more people watching as the series progresses unlike many of their other non-big hitter light entertainment shows.”
“Yeah, I can see why they'd want to do a TMO spin-off and delay the start of the series till 2012. On ITV2, about 0.5m would be decent for that time of the year on a Saturday night, with its young-skewing audience. Speaking of Take Me Out, I do think there is quite a lot of potential with this show. Obviously it's a bit of trash/guilty pleasure TV, but considering how it skews - 30% in the 16-34s/more popular than shows like SCD and DOI in the demo - ITV needs to make a bigger deal about it. What I mean by that is try and get some newspaper/magazine support like other 'reality' shows and "leak" stories of contestants, have a press launch, have deals with magazines where the girls model for them etc. I suppose having a spin-off show is someway towards "making a bigger deal" about it. The third series of reality shows (I know it's not really 'reality' but you know what I mean) is when they tend to break out and I think the potential is there with TMO to go above its 4.5-5.0m level of ratings if it's given that extra marketing push. I would advise ITV that rather than spending a lot of money on marketing for a new entertainment show, which will most likely flop if recent track record is anything to go by, spend that money on promotionally pushing TMO a lot next series to try and get it into the 5-6m mark consistently. I think it can get there- it's the type of show which can generate the "buzz" to get more people watching as the series progresses unlike many of their other non-big hitter light entertainment shows.”
I completely agree with that. They might as well get behind a show they know is a solid hit and try to push it into the next level instead of potentially wasting time on something much more expensive that could flop. I'm sure TMO is also pretty cheap to produce so they could make a massive profit on it if they boost it further. A big hyped up launch with stories about the girls could get them a big launch rating that could be sustained across the 14 weeks. The fact that in both series TMO's ratings have noticeably grown shows it benefits from momentum and word of mouth, which more hype could bring from the start of the run. It's definitely worth a go. Pairing it up with another decent hit would help too.
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“Incidentally, any word on what's happening with Ant & Dec next year? Push The Button just hasn't done the job and it must have been embarrassing for the duo to be beaten by Nick Knowles on a weekly basis. I wonder if they'll try something new or go back to Takeaway? Personally, I'd like to see them do a new non-game show type show but I wouldn't be surprised if Takeaway returned.”
“Incidentally, any word on what's happening with Ant & Dec next year? Push The Button just hasn't done the job and it must have been embarrassing for the duo to be beaten by Nick Knowles on a weekly basis. I wonder if they'll try something new or go back to Takeaway? Personally, I'd like to see them do a new non-game show type show but I wouldn't be surprised if Takeaway returned.”
Not sure what's happening yet. I can't see ITV wanting to do Push The Button again but they haven't announced anything new. They normally do something on Saturday nights in Q1 so I'll be surprised if they don't do anything. I think they could ge away with bringing Takeaway back. It'd probably get a solid c.6m or so which would be much better than PTB. I think they should do another Christmas show too as it did well for ITV in 2009. I agree that they need to be looking for something new though pretty soon, and they probably do need to look at moving away from gameshows and doing something more comedy based.
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“I think Watch are more likely to get that Primeval spin-off than ITV2 considering the BBC America/UKTV links. I just don't think ITV has much, if any, faith in the franchise anymore after the way the series poorly performed earlier this year.”
“I think Watch are more likely to get that Primeval spin-off than ITV2 considering the BBC America/UKTV links. I just don't think ITV has much, if any, faith in the franchise anymore after the way the series poorly performed earlier this year.”
I guess Watch might get it but I thought I read that ITV were going to be involved. I think it could actually do quite well for ITV2 if it's good enough. They want a drama and this could get them a million viewers a week if it's done properly IMO. The budget is huge but as we all know by now a big budget really isn't everything!
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“Oh yeah, you're right. I'd forgotten about the HD issue for live show 2 last year. I guess if it can retain 98% of the audience week-on-week (which is what it seemed to be last year factoring in HD) it'll manage to stay above 10m (exc +1). The later start will help that cause. I think for the following week, ITV should just play it at 8.10-10.10pm meaning there's probably just a 5min clash against SCD (assuming that finishes at 8.15pm). JR might lose 0.5m of its audience but XF would probably gain 0.5m for its audience rather than clashing for 30 mins against SCD and TV Burp would be boosted by airing in the slightly later slot. The pros outweigh the cons, and it's better for everyone involved: SCD's rating would go up too due to the smaller clash”
“Oh yeah, you're right. I'd forgotten about the HD issue for live show 2 last year. I guess if it can retain 98% of the audience week-on-week (which is what it seemed to be last year factoring in HD) it'll manage to stay above 10m (exc +1). The later start will help that cause. I think for the following week, ITV should just play it at 8.10-10.10pm meaning there's probably just a 5min clash against SCD (assuming that finishes at 8.15pm). JR might lose 0.5m of its audience but XF would probably gain 0.5m for its audience rather than clashing for 30 mins against SCD and TV Burp would be boosted by airing in the slightly later slot. The pros outweigh the cons, and it's better for everyone involved: SCD's rating would go up too due to the smaller clash”
Yeah I think they should avoid a clash with SCD. That slot isn't too late (it should be back to 2 hours that night) and it would benefit pretty much everyone (I don't even think Ross would be dented much). I also think Family Fortunes and YBF should swap slots, as that way FF would get a headstart on SCD, and YBF is more compatible with TV Burp. Not that FF should be against Strictly at all though, it should have been swapped by the megaflop Holding Out For A Hero a couple of weeks ago now.
As for TXF's ratings themselves, I might as well give my two pence worth. There's no denying that it's down on last year, and therefore you can't instantly spin it as good. However, it was only down -9% y-o-y, and I think if you'd have told ITV six months ago the live shows would end up around -10% lower than last year they'd have been pretty relieved. I think ultimately the series average will be about level with 2009's. It was down this week but this is probably the stage where 2009 was closest to 2010, and the 2009 series lost a bit of steam towards the end. If they can avoid losing steam this year and build a bit of momentum through the live shows they should end up in a good place. I doubt it will ever match the 2010 series average, but 2009's is achievable.
I also think they should keep all 4 judges for next year, and hope that they can gain higher profiles over the next 12 months and avoid another drop (and perhaps get the numbers up slightly). The show has probably peaked but that doesn't mean it doesn't have much life left in it, as I remember in 2009 and even in 2008 the ratings it was getting then were considered huge, and I'm sure it can still get figures like those. It's also worth remembering that we're in a constantly changing TV environment, and 5m now is what 6m was 5 years ago and 7-8m was 10 years ago, whilst 8m now is what 10m was 5 years ago and 11-12m+ was 10 years ago. So therefore say if TXF drops -8% each year for the next 5 years (and that won't necessarily happen), in 2016 it would average 8.6m. That's the same as what it averaged in 2007, so essentially the show would have the same average as it did 9 years earlier, except in a climate where 8.6m is considered to be much better than it was in 2007 (probably how c.10m was considered in 2007), meaning that it would still be huge and ITV would still want it continue (albeit they'd pay less than they pay now). So basically TXF is still a huge show and as long as there aren't any mega BB style cock-ups it still has a bright future ahead of it, and I'm sure ITV are satisfied, if not entirely thrilled with how it's currently doing.
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I wonder how long the dreaded National Lottery Awards programme will be next month. 
