Originally Posted by rzt:
“Just looking at last year's X Factor ratings, the middle stage (bootcamp/judges houses) 'overperformed' compared to the rest of the series.
What I mean by that is that the auditions stage and live shows stage last year both rated +7% higher than the equivalent stages in 2009. The bootcamp stage last year though rated +20% higher than 2009 and judges' houses stage rated +15% higher than the equivalent phase in 2009.
They rated higher than the rest of the series (%-growth wise) hence 'overperformed' compared to the rest of the series. I think that was due to various factors, including an unusually high amount of press coverage around that stage compared to usual. Last year, they had the Gamu visa saga, Chloe Mafia stuff etc. I'm not saying this year there's not a high amount of press coverage either (indeed there have been quite a lot of articles about Ceri), but I would say it's less than those two this time last year.
Last night's show rated about 10-13% higher than the equivalent stage in 2009, in line (if not slightly higher) with what the auditions phase so far this series has experienced (vs 2009). That's similar to the growth last year's XF had for most of its series compared to 2009 too. It's just not as high as the unusually big growth the bootcamp/judges' houses phase experienced last year. It's difficult to see, at this point, next Sunday's episode matching the mammoth 14.1m average it managed last year. But it's possible that the upcoming live shows might be closer to 2010's as last year's live shows rated more 'normal' (growth-wise vs. 2009) compared to the bootcamp stage, if that makes sense.”
I agree with this. I remember last year the shock at just how high the ratings were for bootcamp/judges houses, and I can't see it matching them this year. There was just so much hype last year and whilst there's still plenty of hype this year (partly why it's still up on every series except last year's) it isn't to the same extent yet.
However, last year when the live shows arrived there was definitely a sense of the ratings flatlining. The Saturday live show didn't increase as much as was expected and remained flat for weeks. Meanwhile, the first Sunday live show was a million down on the previous week, whereas in 2009 the first results show was up +0.6m week-on-week. That caused a bit of shock and it took the show 5 weeks to climb back above where it was for the second judges houses show. I can't see that happening this year. Instead I think we'll see a more 'normal' pattern, with tonight's show and next week's show down year-on-year (although next week should be up on this week), but it should increase gradually as it gets into the live shows, rather than tailing off, and eventually it should end up getting pretty similar numbers as last year for the second half of the live shows.