Im not sure about that though, maybe in the Summer with the light evenings, but its now dark out when these soaps come on.

good match average for the football. Maybe that and the weather affected the soaps.

Does anyone think Strictly and X Factor will be affected by the weather. Could we see the lowest rating of the year for X Factor.

What was the share for that episode? The average share for Emmerdale the past 4 Thursdays at 7pm has been 34%. If it got about that yesterday, then it would be okay.

Also do you happen to have the other ITV1 soap overnights and Big Brother's rating? Thanks

I worry for BB tonight even more against SCD.

Emmerdale's 7pm share was 30.3%

Other ITV soaps

8pm - Emmerdale - 6.2m/27.9% (6.4m inc +1)
8.30pm - Coronation Street - 7.2m/30.4% (7.4m inc +1)

C4
BB - 1.3m / 8.3%

BBC2
Marvellous Mrs Beaton - 1.4m / 6.2%

not bad for the game, probably the 8.05 ko helped

Thanks. Poor share too, especially the 8pm episode. Must be ages since a normal non-EE clash episode of Emmerdale fell down to a 28% share. Corrie's 30% share is bad too.

Football on Five always seems to dent the ITV soaps. Watchdog is holding up very well against them, too.

Yes, if the weather is as hot as it is right now tomorrow, Strictly Come Dancing will almost certainly be down from the 8.7m it had for the equivalent show last year. And considering TXF got 10m/43% (exc +1) last week, even if it holds the same share tomorrow, it could be down to 9-10m (exc +1) if fewer people watching television vs. last week (and tougher competition from DW and Merlin might have an impact).

Why? It will have been dark out for 2 hours by the time those programs start lol

Er, because overall viewing is down by about 1.5m - 2m during this heatwave, regardless of the sunset time.

And please don't end a sentence with 'lol'. Unless you're 12.

Thursday 29th September Roundup
BBC One
13:45- Doctors: 1.37m (24.8%)
19:00- The One Show: 3.8m (20.7%)
19:30- EastEnders: 7.42m (36%)
20:00- Watchdog: 4.1m (17.9%)
21:00- Outnumbered: 4.3m (18.4%)
21:30- Would I Lie To You?: 2.89m (12.8%)
22:00- BBC News at Ten: 3.8m (19.4%)
22:35- Question Time: 2.31m (18.8%)

BBC Two
19:00- If Walls Could Talk: 1.19m (6.1%)
20:00- The Marvellous Mrs Beeton with Sophie Dahl: 1.38m (6%)
21:00- Shirley: 2.79m (12.4%) inc HD
22:15- Mock The Week: 1.91m (10.5%)

ITV1
19:00- Emmerdale: 5.93m (32.1%) , +1: 116k (0.5%)
20:00- Emmerdale: 6.24m (28.4%) , +1: 216k (0.9%)
20:30- Coronation Street: 7.2m (30.4%) , +1: 192k (0.8%)
21:00- Billy Connolly's Route 66: 4.15m (18%) , +1: 248k (1.5%)

Channel 4
18:00- The Simpsons: 1.38m (inc +1)
18:30- Hollyoaks: 790k (4.6%) , +1: 140k (0.7%)
20:00- Country House Rescue: 1.16m (5.1%) , +1: 180k (0.8%)
21:00- Educating Essex: 1.32m (5.8%) , +1: 205k (1.2%)
22:00- Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares: 850k (5%) , +1: 202k (2.2%)

Channel 5
13:45- Neighbours: 645k (11.5%)
17:30- Neighbours: 874k (6.7%)
18:00- Home and Away: 644k (4.2%)
19:30- Europa League Football: 1.72m (7.7%)
* match average - 2.1m
22:00- Big Brother: 1.29m (8.3%)
23:00- Big Brother's Bit On The Side: 397k (4.9%)

Primetime Shares
ITV1: 20.4% (+1: 0.7%)
BBC One: 19.8%
BBC Two: 8.3%
Channel 5: 7.1%
Channel 5: 4.7% (+1: 0.7%)

Ratings include HD and are tape-checked where necessary

Multichannel
5*
18:30- Home And Away: 427k (2.5%)

BBC Three
21:00- Young Soldiers: 361k (1.6%)
22:00- EastEnders: 609k (3.2%)
22:30- Lee Nelson's Well Good Show: 434k (2.8%)

Dave (inc +1)
20:00- Qi XL: 224k

E4
19:00- Hollyoaks: 339k (1.8%)
21:00- The Big Bang Theory: 650k (inc +1)
21:30- How I Met Your Mother: 277k (inc +1)

Film4 (inc +1)
21:00- Transporter 2: 645k
22:30- The Football Factory: 382k

Gold (inc +1)
19:00- Only Fools and Horses: 160k

ITV2
20:00- The X Factor USA: 814k (3.6%) , +1: 198k (1%)
22:00- Celebrity Juice: 1.30m (7.1%) , +1: 163k (1.6%)

More4 (inc +1)
19:45- Grand Designs: 335k
21:00- 24 Hours in A & E: 230k

Sky 1
21:00- Glee: 481k (2.1%)

Sky Living
20:00- Ringer: 198k (0.9%)
* 12-month slot average: 104k (0.4%)

Yesterday (inc +1)
21:00- Teen Spirit: The Mod Rockers: 142k

Sources: Attentional, C4Sales, DS (1) (2)

Rude..

Its going to be raining up north in ITV land tomorrow evening. Down south in the home counties it will still be hot. So I'd say Strictly will hurt more than X Factor.

Ouch at Glee

X-Factor USA is also down significantly on last week.

Terrible figure for Glee. I suspect the days of Sky heavily overpaying for U.S shows may come to an end, particularly when it seems that there is a strong appetite for Sky's homegrown shows.

What is everyone's prediction for X Factor and Strictly this Weekend

My Predictions have changed a bit becuase of this hot weather

X Factor: 10.4m
Strictly Come Dancing: 7.9m

depends how many new subs it generated. Ad revenue isnt that important to Sky

There's an article in the Mirror speculating that ITV will put the Downton Abbey special on Christmas Day: http://www.mirror.co.uk/celebs/news/...5875-23455694/

If they did that, ITV1 would rate better in peak-time than last year's Christmas Day (23% primetime share), but Downton Abbey wouldn't rate as well there than on another day because generally ITV shows rate lower on that day. I guess it's about getting the balance right: do they air a strong lineup for higher ratings and PR purposes but lose out on ad revenue or air a relatively weak lineup with lower ratings but have higher ad revenue during something like DA on another day. They've tried both before, the latter option much more often though.

Downton Abbey probably wouldn't win its slot on Christmas Day anyway, as non-soap ITV shows on Christmas Day usually rate a third lower than usual (while non-soap BBC1 shows rate about 1/3 higher):

2006- Doc Martin had 5.9m on Xmas Day. The series earlier in the year averaged 8.7m. So the loss was 32%.
2007- TV Burp had 3.7m on Xmas Day. The series earlier in the year averaged 5.0m. So the loss was 26%.
2008- Dancing on Ice had 5.7m on Xmas Day. The series earlier in the year averaged 8.9m. So the loss was 36%.
2009- All Star Mr & Mrs had 2.9m on Xmas Day. The series earlier in the year averaged 4.7m. So the loss was 38%.

If DA experienced a similar drop as what usually happens, it'd be down to about 6m, maybe 7-8m in the overnights if the drop was smaller than usual (-20%). Still well beaten by The Royle Family which would be rating at 9m/10m. There'd be a lot of negative headlines for the show too after that ("Downton beaten by the Royles" etc). I say, they're better off going for the same lineup as last year (Family Fortunes and Poirot) which did a decent job but obviously gave BBC1 a big victory on Christmas Day, and focusing on other nights of the holiday period with their big shows. The only way I think ITV1 could come close to BBC1 on Christmas Day nowadays would be if they had an XF Xmas special, because its figures are usually so high, that even with a -30% drop it'd be (just about) high enough to beat the competition. But it's probably just not practical to do or worth doing.

I think it depends what the buzz is around the Downton episode.

The specials that you mention, even Doc Martin were one offs and had little to do with the rest of the series. If Downton ends on a cliff hanger in November and concludes the story at Christmas, you could have a very powerful tool to drive audiences to the Christmas episode.

Downton Abbey would probably be more suited to New Years Day.

ITV 1 should stick to to usual rubbish for Xmas day - soaps, YBF! and a film

True, it's largely dependent on what sort of cliffhanger, if any, there is at the end of the normal series episode. I think Downton would still lose its slot to EE/Royle Family (it would surely still experience some kind of drop, even if minimal, compared to the usual 9m-rated episodes?), but I suppose it could put a dent in the figures the competition gets (EE only usually faces <5m filler like Family Fortunes/Mr and Mrs and could drop 1-2 million vs recent years). But I still think they should leave DA away from Christmas Day and have it on Boxing Day where it'd rate better. What do you think ITV should play on Christmas Day?

Christmas Day is a Sunday this year

I just think the schedules have become too predictable over recent years especially with the regulars 2 hours of Emmerdale and Coronation Street versus 2 hours of Strictly & Eastenders.

It depends I suppose whether you want to win kudos or ratings. I think ITV is always going to rate lower that day as you say due to BBC1 being the default channel for many.

Poirot gave them kudos but not ratings, Downton might just be big enough to push them over the line. Besides The Royale Family isnt as big an attraction anymore.

On balance I'd say go for it this year all guns blazing and see if it works.