The X Factor rated low compared its own standard for the last couple of years, though it's in line with the trends previously experienced. What I mean is that in the last two years, the second performance show has rated -5% vs. week one: the same thing happened last night. And the previous 6 episodes have been down an average of -11%/-15% (inc/exc +1) year-on-year: the same thing happened last night. It just seems like for various reasons, after such an excellent auditions stage ratings-wise, the momentum didn't pick up at bootcamp and that's carried onto the live stages. Considering it's been rating at -11%/-15% y-o-y consistently for the last 7 episodes in a row, I think that's going to be the level it sticks at for the remainder of the series (apart from the odd bump here and there). So I think we can almost certainly rule out 14m+ results averages (apart from the final) if/when that pattern continues and the final itself, I suspect, will be down close to a 15m average rather than c17m which it had last year.
There's not as much buzz around the show as there was the last couple of years. This year, the 'controversial acts' aren't as controversial as previous years, the 'joke act' isn't as funny as previous years, and the 'quality acts' aren't as talented as in previous years. The judges are okay but the panel misses the spark that last year's panel had - although maybe with time, that'll come. So it just seems like a below-par version this year. Doing a few calculations, if the -10%/-15% declines do continue for the rest of the series, the official series average, bearing in mind it's timeshifting slightly more this year, will be about -8% vs last year and slightly up from 2009 (inc +1) or slightly down (exc +1). So it could still end up as the 2nd most watched series, but that'll mainly be due to a very strong rated auditions stage rather than the live shows which have disappointed thus far.
Strictly Come Dancing did well last night. The BBC have been clever with their scheduling of SCD- it started 25 minutes later than the equivalent episode last year, so although its share was lower than every Saturday episode last year, its year-on-year decline was minimal (only -0.2m). I suspect, as with last week though, the results show will be slightly up vs. 2010 due to weak competition so all in all, SCD is in a very good and steady place this series. Also Merlin's doing better than last year, as is Casualty which was well scheduled directly after Merlin. The same thing's happening next week too and for the rest of Autumn, I'd imagine, so we'll probably continue to see Casualty rating in the mid 4's rather than 3's/low 4's where it was last Autumn. TV Burp should've done better last night given the slightly later slot than last week and Jonathan Ross back down to the mid 3's figures which isn't good considering the lead-in.
