Although they are being charitable to TXF by misreporting the figures, to include the repeat an hour later on ITV1+1 - ie, 10.1m TXF vs 9.5m SCD rather than the actual 9.8m vs 9.5m.

I see the Mirror's poll of viewers suggests 61% think this series is a flop and an astonishing 56% think TXF in its current format has had its day.

I think it could be looking at declines of around 15-20% for the rest of the series. So far for weeks 1 and 2 of the live shows and the judges homes show the Saturday decline has been greater than the Sunday decline in percentage terms. If each Saturday show was down -10/15/20% y-o-y then the ratings would be as follows:

Week 4: 11.0m/10.4m/9.8m
Week 5: 11.0m/10.4m/9.8m
Week 6: 12.2m/11.5m/10.8m
Week 7: 11.9m/11.2m/10.6m
Week 8: 12.2m/11.6m/10.9m
Week 9: 12.3m/11.6m/11.0m
Week 10: 12.7m/12.0m/11.3m

So I think whilst the next 2 weeks will be closest to the -15% figure, I can't see it having a big jump in week 6 like last year so it could fall into the -20% range, which would lead to an 11.3m rating for the final Saturday show, which looks about right based on the 10.9m/10.1m/10.1m that its had for the first 3 live shows.

Meanwhile, if the remaining Sunday shows are down -10%/15%/20% then the ratings would be:

Week 3: 12.2m/11.6m/10.9m
Week 4: 12.5m/11.8m/11.1m
Week 5: 13.4m/12.7m/11.9m
Week 6: 13.1m/12.3m/11.6m
Week 7: 13.7m/12.9m/12.2m
Week 8: 13.3m/12.6m/11.8m
Week 9: 13.6m/12.8m/12.1m
Week 10: 15.5m/14.6m/13.8m

Based on the fact that the first 2 live results shows have had 11.9m and 11.6m, I think tonight's will be somewhere between the -10% and -15% ratings, as 'bullygate' might boost it slightly. After that however I think from week 5 onwards it'll be somewhere between the -15% and -20% ratings, with the final somewhere in the middle with around 14.2m.

I can't see ITV being too happy with the way this series is going. They won't be pushing the panic button but I'll be surprised if all 4 judges are still in place next year, and we may see a few format changes. I don't think the format itself is the problem. I think they need to lighten the tone a bit to make it more 'fun' and choose contestants for the live shows more wisely. Ditching Jade at judges houses and then Amelia in the twist (which shouldn't be repeated) were both really bad moves. As for the judges, if Simon doesn't come back then Louis and Gary are probably definites to return next year but I think at least one of the girls will be replaced.

Saturday 22nd October Overnights
BBC One
17:25- Celebrity Masterchef - 3.87m (21.9%)
18:25- Strictly Come Dancing - 9.45m (38.7%)
20:15- Merlin - 5.52m (21.4%)
21:00- Casualty - 4.23m (16.6%)
21:50- The National Lottery Draws - 4.10m (18.1%)
22:00- BBC News - 3.93m (18.4%)

BBC Two
20:15- Dad's Army: 2.02m (7.8%)
20:45- Britain's Flying Past: 1.44m (5.6%)
21:45- QI XL: 1.41m (6.6%)

ITV1
17:30- You've Been Framed! - 3.16m (17.6%) , +1: 358k
18:30- All Star Family Fortunes - 3.98m (16.9%) , +1: 160k
19:30- Harry Hill's TV Burp - 4.70m (18.6%) , +1: 241k
20:00- The X Factor - 9.77m (38.0%) , +1: 340k
21:55- The Jonathan Ross Show - 3.48m (17.4%) , +1: 187k

Channel 4
19:00- Time Team: 670k (2.7%)
20:00- World War II: The Last Heroes: 730k (2.8%)
21:00- The Hurt Locker: 1.42m (6.8%)

Channel 5
20:05- NCIS: 646k (2.5%)
20:55- NCIS: 655k (2.6%)
21:55- Big Brother: 938k (4.7%)

BBC Four
21:00- Monty Python's Life of Brian: 975k (4.1%)

ITV2
21:55- The Xtra Factor: 816k (4.1%)

Primetime Shares
ITV1: 28.2%
BBC One: 25.5%
BBC Two: 5.6%
Channel 4: 4.4%
Channel 5: 3.1%

Ratings include HD and are tape-checked where necessary

Source: DS

The readers of which prefer SCD over The X Factor.

(Whereas X Factor viewers are more likely to be brainwashed by the 'red-top' media publications)

You can always tell how The X Factor rated by how many pages you have to get through here on a Sunday afternoon!

It is worrying, but it's also obviously down to the talent considering the auditions held firm on last year - so they can't blame the judges and shouldn't hit the panic button.

That said I suspect Cole is more likely than Cowell to return next year - and that would be another classic example of producers doing what they believe viewers would want but actually it's practically the complete opposite.

As for Cowell - I bet he's just happy the US version is finally outrating the UK version!

I did actually watch a bit of TXF last night. Some fat lass making a right horlicks of a soft rock number, karaoked up to the max, Louis camping it up big time and Gary being heckled, half heartedly, by the audience. Really can't see what the fuss is all about. Perhaps that's why viewers are switching off.

On the plus side, the American judge has nice breasts.

Low for X Factor, but still in terms or normal viewing, still a great figure.

I am actually surprised that BB did that well, last night was 20 mins of repeats completely, and I know a lot of people would have given up with it last night.

Standout figures from SCD and Merlin as always.

Never thought I would see SCD only 300,000 behind X Factor this year. I think its time for widespread panic at ITV/Cowell Towers, wouldnt be surprised if Cole or Cowell were parachuted in sometime soon.

Life of Brian did well with a million viewers on BBC4 last night - for a 32 year old film lots of people will have seen many times.

No i don't agree. Maybe next week if ratings are down again and Strictly beats it they will start to panic. but it's still the most watched tv program

First panic came earlier in the week when they panic-moved TXF right out of SCD's all conquering path for the rest of the run.

That is a real turnaround.

Cowell will almost certainly be back within weeks, if not days. Will it make any difference though? Surely it will just feed the "ratings crisis" headlines, and damage the brand further, if they boot one of the judges off (Barlow, presumably?) to bring Cowell back?

3.9m for Masterchef, thats almost decent.

Big Brother did quite well for a repeat with a bit of new stuff tacked onto the end.

MasterChef finale rated OK given its other ratings this series, but its capable of a lot more.

Look at the gap between the two shows last year and this year, that tells you the whole story.


Im sure Cowell would boost a rating for a return but the whole show is looking tired and any increase would diminish fast.

Im wondering what will artificially happen next week.

Maybe a judge walks off and says theyve quit the show?

I suspect it helped that they cut the last 2 minutes of Friday afternoon's show off deliberately so that the winner wasn't announced until the end of yesterday's 'repeat'.

Last night's final episode was a rip-off. Those who watched it for 6 weeks Monday to Friday, and therefore expected to find out the winner last Friday afternoon, were told at the end that they would actually reveal the winner on Saturday
Then, those who watched on Saturday had to watch again a highlights package for much of the hour.

I don't think Cowell going back to X-Factor would make much differance. He has sent out the message that he can't be bothered with his own show, the damage has been done. When someone trashes there own brand theres no going back - Just ask Gerald Ratner.

Hughie Green was drunk in the bar at Teddington and told a very senior Thames producer to F*** ***. Unfortunately Thames's head of LE happened to be present and ensured Green was despatched in the same direction, never to return to Thames. When the BBC briefly revived the Op Knocks format they actually paid Green to stay away from the studios

Agreed. But I just dont get the Beebs persistance with Spring. Dr Who has struggled to anchor itself there in the last few years and the period is beset with football, Eurovision, BGT and Britains increasingly daft weather.
The Jan-Feb-Mar period just cries out to be dominated on Saturday nights and neither channel appears to recognise this. I just dont think the BBC is giving the hugely important get that is The Voice the best chance. Presumably ITV wil attempt to strangle it at birth anyway with something or other but lighter nights wont assist with the birth either.

As for XF and SCD, SCD is doing everything it can to keep hang onto viewers-its a big show-every celebrity had a video insert (Robbie Savage was dancing in the half time break at Reading Football Club) which iirc has only been the case with selected celebs in previous years. There is bickering, great dancing, daft dancing and for the moment its flowing -next week is a Halloween special which no doubt they will go to town on again. Its become the pantomime that propelled XF to its biggest ratings.XF has undoubtedly had a stumble-maybe similar to the one SCD had in 2009. I certainly would not rule out the golden foursome all returning next year (and if was a betting man I would have a crafty tenner). Forget the acts- XF greatest success has been based around Cowell Minogue Cole and Walsh.

I actually think there for once Robbie you've hit the nail on the head.

I agree that while it looks like this series will be on the low side, there is no way it can be used as a prediction of future series, there are too many factors that come into play, the same goes for SCD, you can't say that 2012's will be higher than 2011's because it is higher than 2010's.

I have to laugh at all the people in this thread saying 'I watched a bit of TXF last night and I thought it was rubbish' as if that is news. Many people in this thread have disliked TXF even when it was on the up, TXF discussion has had a negative vibe in this thread every year.

No, they didn't. They could have just watched the last 10 minutes.


Brian must have had an effect on X Factor. That's way, way up on what BBC4 get in any slot, never mind up against X Factor. I'd like to see a breakdown of Brian's audience. Python. I imagine, would have skewed young-male back in the day. Interesting to see if it still does today or if it's mainly watched by its now middle-aged fans from the seventies.

Next week BBC4 is back on the Swedish Wallander repeats, so maybe X Factor will soar back up in the ratings.

This is a neat theory until you take into account the performance of the audition stages which were very impressive. Surprisingly so in fact. Looking at the series as a whole the issue doesn't seem to be a lack of Cowell or that he trashed his own brand but with the contestants and/or new judges.


I'm not sure that's entirely true.

Its possible that the early interest in the audition stages was people checking out the new judging panel and ultimately deciding come boot camp and judges houses that they didn't like them. I think there's also the issue that the judging panel have gone from the tightly edited stages of the show to the live shows and all of their flaws that the production team worked so hard to hide in the early stages are there for the world to see.

The production team have no one but themselves to blame though. It still amazes me that they managed to hire a panel that is almost completely devoid of charisma and personality. Kelly Rowland is basically carrying the entire judging panel at this point and she comes off looking ridiculously OTT because she's surrounded by such blandness.


Out of interest did you watch this weeks show? Looking at what they rolled out last night it is abundantly clear that the production team hit the panic button this week.


Honestly I think there's very little chance Cowell will return to the show before the semi-finals. And assuming Fox renew The X Factor (and I can't see why they wouldn't at this point) I think there's basically no chance he'll make a full time return to the UK version primarily because I don't think Fox will let him. They basically refused to let him do the UK version this year and given that the US version hasn't exploded as they hoped I don't imagine Cowell will be in a particularly strong position to change their mind next year.

My guess is that Cheryl will return next year. Probably replacing Tulisa who hasn't worked out at all this year. Ideally they'd get rid of Barlow as well given that he is a charisma blockhole but unfortunately I think they might be stuck with him for another year at least. It might be finally time to ditch Louis Walsh next year as well and bring in a male judge with some charisma and a personality. Assuming he doesn't do The Voice they could do worse than grab Robbie Williams that would give the press the chance to dig up the Gary vs. Robbie stories.

The X Factor will always pull ahead in the consolidated ratings.

From Matt J on another thread:

Saturday 15 October 2011 - Peaktime Finals
1...The X Factor - 11.14m (39.6%) [+1: 470k]
2...Strictly Come Dancing - 10.08m (40.6%)

Strictly added about 1m to its overnight rating, The X Factor about 1.5m. But that's quite close.

I would however add that I imagine Strictly has considerably more iPlayer viewers than The X Factor has ITV Player viewers. I suspect when you add up all the ways people are watching the two shows are probably in something close to a dead heat.

But then I suppose some would want to add the X Factor repeats ITV air during the week as well which would probably push X Factor back in front again.