Originally Posted by Cornchips:
“thanks for the analysis. It is how I see it too. Eviction polls are always tricky cos it doesn't take account of the multi voter or those who may vote for more than one HM - they click their favourite (Jay for example) but may also have someone who they will also "throw a few votes to" such as Harry. The polls have tended to be right on these evictions this series when it comes to who is bottom but its interesting that different sites have different people bottom. As of this morning:
DS
Aaron 61%
Harry 16%
Faye 13%
Jay 9%
675 motes
(members only)
TIBB
Aaron 61%
Faye 16%
Harry 12%
Jaye 10%
368 votes
(anyone can vote)
BBSPY
Aaron 54%
Jay 21%
Harry 13%
Faye 12%
441 votes
(anyone can vote)
In all of these Aaron has over half the vote share - which is pretty much unheard of of any HM at this stage in a four way vote.
We have to keep voting though cos I for one want Aaron to top the vote - for me its not good enough after the week he has had to just survive.
Re the other three - Faye has the advantage of being the only girl. Some viewers naturally prefer female HMs and as the only girl up she is a target for them. She also has the Faye/aaron thing gong for her and also she has the sympathy vote (let's see her without her dragon of a sister).
Jay has the advantage of being the odd one out in that if you don't like the Aaron/Harry camp then there is only one person to vote for and that is Jay - he is also the only remaining wolfpack member.
Harry to me is the one in most danger. Although I think he has a bigger fanbase than either jay or faye on his own he doesn't have that extra something to get him the vote - I would imagine that his fans aren't all that rabid either.
Its difficult to call this week for sure as to who will go.”
I agree that this eviction is the hardest one to predict this year. With every other eviction there's been an obvious evictee and I don't think that's the case this week. My gut and my best reading of the numbers says Jay but the margin of error is to great to for it to be anything other than a best guess. A guess which could very well change over the next 24hrs.
I also agree re Harry, I do think he lack "roll over" vote from not being part of a couple or "pack" in the house but that could be balanced out by the fact he has a slightly larger fan base. Again we're talking tiny margins, his biggest weakness is probably the fact he shares a lot of his support with Aaron and most people are concerned about splitting their vote this week. He could lose out massively. Jay however, does have the edge is in organisation, he has a healthy Twitter following and Facebook fan site which have been up and running since the start of the show. They seem to be pretty on the ball and appear to be making the most of his limited support. As with so many election it may come down to this............ Will organisation trump enthusiasm?
As for the eviction polls above they're not a million miles away from what I would have predicted given everything we seen up to this point. My best guess would have been Aaron 55%, Harry 17%, Faye 16% and Jay 12%. So Aaron is over preforming my model.
It's interesting that DS and TiBB almost exactly flip Harry and Faye in the early poling. This again mirrors the sites usual behaviour, DS slightly skews Harry in it's polling and TiBB does the same to about the same % for Faye. So we can pretty much put them in a statistical dead heat!
BB Spy has been an outlier this year and trends significantly towards Jay in it's polling to date. I checked back to the fifth eviction, which is the most similar to this imo, and it had Jay polling second. Aaron 46%, Jay 22%, Faye 20%, Anton 7% and Aden 5%. It seem similarly off this week. I've been trying to work out why and my current best guess is it's the nature of the site. DS and TiBB are forum based sites whereas BB Spy is more news based and has a strong Twitter footprint. I think it's these features that are probably drawing a higher percentage of Jay fans than the forum based sites are.
Although all my Facebook votes are going to Aaron I'm increasingly tempted to throw some phone votes Harry's way as I'd really like to see him in the final.
Friday will be very interesting, and possibly surprising