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The Ratings Thread (Part 27)
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mlt11
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Dancc:
“Is the £40m figure even correct though?

You will happily dispute the recent reports regarding C5's financial performance, but this £40m figure which isn't even that widely reported is taken as gospel by yourself.

It's almost like you have an agenda to peddle...

Let's see how Big Brother performs in 2012 before we forecast the death of Channel 5!”

Not taking the £40m as gospel - just quoting it as the figure which has been widely reported.

How accurate it is, I don't know.

But I think it's clear that C5 has paid a very substantial amount for BB and the question remains - how can it make economic sense if you can get almost the same audience at miniscule cost in comparison?

I'm certainly not forecasting the death of C5 - I'm sure the bottom line will improve as overheads are massively slashed. The question is what is the optimum amount to spend on programming.
mlt11
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by GeorgeS:
“The really interesting thing was that ITV will have cleared its debt by year end and will start building quite a tidy cash pile in 2012 and onwards. It would suggest that they will either start going aggressively on acquisitions. If not, they risk being taken over themselves.”

True, but I think the risks from the overall economic climate are such that everyone (both ITV management and any acquirer) will proceed with caution.

Achieving any significant revenue growth is going to be very challenging and all the easy costs have been taken out.
Mike Teevee
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by GeorgeS:
“The really interesting thing was that ITV will have cleared its debt by year end and will start building quite a tidy cash pile in 2012 and onwards. It would suggest that they will either start going aggressively on acquisitions. If not, they risk being taken over themselves.”

well dunno about acquisitions, as Sky has the best stuff (generally) and overseas products now no longer seems popular

I'm hoping ITV continues to improve it's sports portfolio (French Open on ITV4 is a good start). Maybe they could do a deal to share rights for 6 Nations with BBC
Dancc
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by mlt11:
“No taking the £40m as gospel - just quoting it as the figure which has been widely reported.

How accurate it is, I don't know.

But I think it's clear that C5 has paid a very substantial amount for BB and the question remains - how can it make economic sense if you can get almost the same audience at miniscule cost in comparison?

I'm certainly not forecasting the death of C5 - I'm sure the bottom line will improve as overheads are massively slashed. The question is what is the optimum amount to spend on programming.”

It's not the same audience though is it. They had a dismal 2.3% share of 16-34 aged viewers yesterday, beaten by E4 and ITV2. To be expected given the classic films which dominated the schedule. But contrast this to the 10.5% for the day of the Celebrity Big Brother launch, 6.5% for the BB final on Friday or the 5.4% they had for the first Sunday of Celebrity Big Brother and it's a whole different ballgame.
GeorgeS
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Mike Teevee:
“well dunno about acquisitions, as Sky has the best stuff (generally) and overseas products now no longer seems popular”

Sorry I meant acquiring production companies not tv shows
mlt11
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Dancc:
“It's not the same audience though is it. They had a dismal 2.3% share of 16-34 aged viewers yesterday, beaten by E4 and ITV2. To be expected given the classic films which dominated the schedule. But contrast this to the 10.5% for the Celebrity Big Brother launch, 6.5% for the BB final on Friday night or the 5.4% they had for the first Sunday of Celebrity Big Brother and it's a whole different ballgame.”

I know. I said at post 1822 that BB will have better demographics. But at these levels it is an enormous amount to make up to justify the cost.

Now that BB has finished, perhaps rzt can have a go at calculating the gross margin again - he did this a few weeks ago so would be good if calculation could be updated.

(NB. rzt - only if you can spare the time!)
Dancc
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by mlt11:
“I know. I said at post 1822 that BB will have better demographics. But at these levels it is an enormous amount to make up to justify the cost.

Now that BB has finished, perhaps rzt can have a go at calculating the gross margin again - he did this a few weeks ago so would be good if calculation could be updated.

(NB. rzt - only if you can spare the time!)”

Why bother? Only C5 know the real figures, the ones that matter and take into account everything such as voting revenue, sponsorship and product placement deals that we simply don't have a clue about as casual observers. We don't seem to go into so much detail about the financial viability of other shows in here, I wonder why?

At only halfway through the current contract I still maintain it's too early to tell what's going to happen, although Celebrity Big Brother's figures were met with a widespread thumbs up from the broadcast media back in September and even Big Brother has been praised for its 16-34 performance by publications such as Media Week recently.

Quarter 4 has been problematic for Channel 5 generally (see figures for other high-profile programming like Paul Merton's Adventures), but it's a fact that it's the most challenging of the lot in terms of the competition. Let's see what happens when CBB/BB return to their usual slots next year, by which time Channel 5+1 will also be available to potentially increase reach further still. (BB used to pick up very high audiences on timeshift when it was on Channel 4)
cylon6
14-11-2011
Look at what is returning! It's Jim'll Fix It.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/showsandtours/s...w/jimll_fix_it
Dancc
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by cylon6:
“Look at what is returning! It's Jim'll Fix It.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/showsandtours/s...w/jimll_fix_it”

Dodgy link. It tried to download something to my computer. (Chrome browser)
Georged123
14-11-2011
Very good for Im A Celeb, much higher than I expected. I have to question why people assumed the casting would mean the ratings would fall. The group of contestants is no more famous or less famous than previous years. You have the soap star, former soap star, Hollywood actress that hasnt been in anything for 20 years, boy band member, page 3 model with huge boobs, reality star, former sportsman/woman and a comedian. Its a tried and tested casting policy that works every year.

Fantastic for Ice Age too. We are obviously getting into the period when family films get huge ratings in the teatime slot. I remember in the last few years Elf and Miracle on 34th Street have both got 4/5m.
Georged123
14-11-2011
Just looking at the top ratings of the year so far, Eastenders is now down to 7th after that I'm A Celeb rating, soon to be 8th when Strictly overtakes it aswell. Its going to down a big boost at Christmas to climb some places or have a very low end of year position.
Saturn
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Georged123:
“Just looking at the top ratings of the year so far, Eastenders is now down to 7th after that I'm A Celeb rating, soon to be 8th when Strictly overtakes it aswell. Its going to down a big boost at Christmas to climb some places or have a very low end of year position.”

I would have thought Pat's exit would be enough to push it back up a few slots.
ronant
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Dancc:
“Dodgy link. It tried to download something to my computer. (Chrome browser)”

Fine for me! So presumably just a Christmas special, wonder who'll present it?!
EDIT: Shane Richie http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/t...e-revived.html
Andy Parish
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Georged123:
“Just looking at the top ratings of the year so far, Eastenders is now down to 7th after that I'm A Celeb rating, soon to be 8th when Strictly overtakes it aswell. Its going to down a big boost at Christmas to climb some places or have a very low end of year position.”

I wonder if it will remain in the official BARB Top 10 come the end of the year?

Incidentally EastEnders hasn't dropped out of the BARB Top 10 since 1992.
grahamzxy
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Andy Parish:
“I wonder if it will remain in the official BARB Top 10 come the end of the year?

Incidentally EastEnders hasn't dropped out of the BARB Top 10 since 1992.”

I am thinking Christmas Day Eastenders is going to be rating 12m+ especially with the demise of a long-standing character.

Quote:
“I'm A Celebrity contestant Freddie Starr was dramatically rushed to hospital yesterday after suffering a severe allergic reaction in the jungle.”

Nice PR for the show, Freddie gets a night in a private hospital (6 star hotel) - viewers tune in tonight to see how he is getting along.
grahamzxy
14-11-2011
No ITV HD data for w/e November 6th 2011. That evening Downton Abbey rated 11.25m + HD (likely to be 1m+) probably not enough to trouble Coronation Street in the #4 slot for the top shows of 2011. The X Factor Results on the same evening will be pretty close to matching the series high - once HD figures are released.
rzt
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by grahamzxy:
“I am thinking Christmas Day Eastenders is going to be rating 12m+ especially with the demise of a long-standing character.”

I'm still not convinced EE will get 12m+ on Christmas Day even with that storyline. The last time EE had the exit of a long-running character on Christmas Day, it had 11.56m (2006). The last three Christmas Days have had:

2008- 11.34m
2009- 11.67m
2010- 12.61m

Traditionally EE does best when an episode is the climax of a long-running storyline airing over months rather than an exit which hasn't really been built up to. So I'm still not convinced EE will manage 12m+ officially on Christmas Day unless it faces really easy competition (which is a possibility, I suppose). I reckon EE will still just about hang on to a Top 10 place in our end-of-year chart at #8 to #10 and it won't have a problem managing a Top 10 place in the error-prone www.barb.co.uk Top 10 which excludes ITV1 HD for programmes, thus giving EE an automatic advantage over the likes of IAC and DA.
Charnham
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by ronant:
“Fine for me! So presumably just a Christmas special, wonder who'll present it?!
EDIT: Shane Richie http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/t...e-revived.html”

can someone explain why people like Shane Richie?
Dancc
14-11-2011
I can't believe Pauline's exit was way back in 2006! That does not feel like 5 years ago at all. Scary.
grahamzxy
14-11-2011
I know there has been a Glee ratings drop off since it went behind a pay wall from E4 to Sky One. The consolidated rating are steady at least.

Season 3 - BARB officials

Episode 1 - 22/09 : 1.17m
Episode 2 - 29/09 : 1.00m
Episode 3 - 06/10 : 1.10m
Episode 4 - 06/11 : 1.03m

The overnights are not impressive - but it is time-shifting very well indeed.
grahamzxy
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by Charnham:
“can someone explain why people like Shane Richie?”

You obviously did not see him on 3-2-1 in the 1980's or enjoy him on Seaside Special, way back when. Enjoy if you dare - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXEAZj2fFKA
Charnham
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by grahamzxy:
“You obviously did not see him on 3-2-1 in the 1980's or enjoy him on Seaside Special, way back when. Enjoy if you dare - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXEAZj2fFKA ”

that wasnt funny at all.
Dancc
14-11-2011
It's around about where 24 and Lost were. The difference is, I don't think it will sustain that number across the season like those shows did. The frequent transmission breaks due to closeness to US broadcast will take their toll.

And whilst the switch to pay TV would have an undeniable automatic effect, we are a long way away from the 3m+ (consolidated, with +1) it got on E4 at around this point last season. I just think the show moving to Sky1 hurt E4 (or will hurt E4 this coming Jan-May) and hasn't really benefited Sky1 all that much, so a bit of a lose-lose really. An Idiot Abroad (an original Sky1 commission) stealing the show this autumn for them should be the wake up call they need. Sadly, I suspect it won't. They will continue to be overly aggressive in the acquisitions market, to the detriment of free-to-air TV, when in reality there is more than enough US TV on Sky channels already.
Andy Parish
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by rzt:
“and it won't have a problem managing a Top 10 place in the error-prone www.barb.co.uk Top 10 which excludes ITV1 HD for programmes, thus giving EE an automatic advantage over the likes of IAC and DA.”

Ah yes, I'd forgotten about that.
RobbieSykes123
14-11-2011
Originally Posted by GeorgeS:
“The really interesting thing was that ITV will have cleared its debt by year end and will start building quite a tidy cash pile in 2012 and onwards. It would suggest that they will either start going aggressively on acquisitions. If not, they risk being taken over themselves.”

Windfall tax!

Would be a good way of channelling money into public service broadcasting, and easing pressure on licence fee payers.



Originally Posted by ronant:
“Fine for me! So presumably just a Christmas special, wonder who'll present it?!
EDIT: Shane Richie http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/t...e-revived.html”

Was this planned before Sir Jim's passing, and Shane is therefore stepping in as a replacement? Or have they just come up with this idea as a tribute in the past week?

Either way, it's a bit odd. Can you imagine "Bruce Forsyth's Generation Game..... - presented by Jim Davidson"?

Originally Posted by rzt:
“I'm still not convinced EE will get 12m+ on Christmas Day even with that storyline.”

If ITV go for it with DA on Christmas Day, then it will almost certainly face an hour of EastEnders (the best the Beeb may have to counter it) which will inevitably put EE at no more than 10m - or the 2nd half of a two part EE with the first EE ep airing early evening and thus unable to get a 12m audience.

So if DA does invade the Beeb's turf, I can't see EE bettering what it already has this year.

If it's Poirot, or Family Fortunes, then game on...
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