Something has struck me since Rory's eviction.
All of this year's eliminated pairs have been with Pro's who did not do the Strictly Tour 2011.

I correctly predicted that from last nights "bottom two" Brendan- Lulu/ Natalie- Audley ; that it would be Brendan going as he is not likely to tour this year as he does his own thing. Natalie did the 2011 tour shows with RIcky Whittle from 2009 series.

This means next week Flavia and Russell are the "most likely" to go - assuming Flavia and Vincent do their own tour again, and this years tour pro's are same as last year (with Pasha joining).

Am I paranoid or is this too much of a coincidence?
Compare who toured 2011 with who is left in the competition.
(Forget celebrities they can be mixed up with new partners for the tour.)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/strictlycomedancing/2011/dancers/

http://www.strictlycomedancinglive.c...-dancers-2011/

Or alternatively those who have their own shows have been eliminated first - Vincent, Erin and Anton, Brendan. Would be interesting if Flavia went out next week.

Maybe they want more preparation time for their tours Probably just a statistical coincidence though

I don't think you can ignore the celebs - they would always rather have the show pairings on the tour.

There was speculation at the time of the pairings about certain pros getting duffers because they don't do the tour/play the BBC game/are being ousted. (Admittedly, there were conspiracy theories about absolutely everything ).

If the BBC was using the tour as one of their criteria for pairing pros and celebs up, wouldn't the logic be to give the 'most likely to tour' celebs to the 'most likely to tour' pros? I've no idea who'll do the tour, but my guess would be that Rory and Russell would (both with pros who don't tour) and Holly and Harry wouldn't (both pros do/did tour). I doubt Audley would tour, but Natalie always has.


I think it's just a nice, neat coincidence (or else it's Russell for the chop next )

There does seem to be a clear correlation between those pros who tour and those pros who consistently get the more talented celebs. Difficult to make a case it is deliberate given most of the pros who don't tour have been in the show longer and, it would be argued, have had their chances.

The same thing occurred to me.....I dont think its influenced the vote in any way but I dont think the BBC would put a potential winner with a pro that isnt doing the pro/celeb tour. They might have to worry about Russell a bit but he will continue to be bottom of the board and as the amount of couples reduce he will struggle to avoid the chop by sheer law of maths.

Obviously no news on the tour celebs yet but I think they will be:

Jason
Anita
Chelsee
Holly
Robbie
Alex possibly but less likely

I think Russell would like to but dont think his knee would manage it.

I just don't think that stacks up

Of the pros who toured this year Ola had Paul Daniels (v. poor) and now Robbie (mediocre), James - Dr P (good), Alex (mediocre), Kristina - until now, always had rubbish dancers, though we never got to find out with Goldie!, Natalie - good,good, poor, Robin - 2 mediocre dancers. Artem's had two good ones and Aliona - poor, good, good. I don't see any pattern!

eta - forgot to mention Jared - always do! . Sorry Jared

I like a conspiracy theory as much as the next forum member, but I don't think there is one here.

It's all about the celebs and, if a particular pro can't do the tour, they just slot in another one (in the last tour Ola danced with Jimi in Flavia's absence, poor girl - he hadn't improved in the interim). Scott didn't tour, so they drafted in Ricky Whittle for Natalie, and they were as excellent as ever.

The tour doesn't just feature the top contenders - Tina & Jared went out early last year but were still on tour (she had improved quite considerably).

I think the tour organisers will want Russell as a crowd-puller, so they will simply pair him with another pro, although of course half the charm is his partnership with Flavia. Don't know who that could be, though, since I expect Robbie to do the tour with Ola, so that rules out the other smaller dancer. Any ideas?

and you need to add Katya here as she has never toured... and of course got ousted second...

On the other hand look at it from the other angle - the pros who don't tour. Anton and Erin never have, Brendan, Lilia, Darren quickly dropped out and did their own thing (Lilia to return last year having been booted from main show), Vincent and Flavia now doing their own thing and, bingo, the duds come their way. I don't think it's the only factor in how celebs are doled out by any means but I wonder if it is one factor.

I dont think its a coincidence at all

I was under the impression that Erin, Anton, Brendan dont want to do the tour and Vincent and Flavia now have their own tour as well do dont want to do the tour

well, hasn't the winner always done the tour?!

Did Alesha do the tour? I can't remember. But I do think this is a factor. They could easily replace a pro of course but they will sell the tour as they same couplethat won SCD that year.

If they are only goingto get duds every year then why enter in teh first place? If I were Vincent or erin or Brendan I would quit the show now.

no, she didnt, not that I can recall.......

someone correct me if I am wrong please

I agree with you, if a pro is definitely not going to do the tour and the public wants to see the couple, rather than the celeb dancing with whoever is free, it's obviously going to be a factor.

So both sides play the game, Anton and Erin get the chance to publicise their tour every year, but they're not going to get a contender because you just can't have the winner going on tour with another pro.

I could be wrong, but Alesha never toured, did she?

Also, remember that Matthew, Ian, Lilia, Darren & Brian all toured; didn't stop the producers from getting rid of them.

ETA: posting one-handed makes me slooow!

I was hoping Katya might tour this year as she is Pasha's partner rather than Brendans (he has never toured) I think the BBC thought Danlusional Lobb would last longer.

No Alesha didnt do the tour....but she was the winner in the year that the very first tour started and I think she felt
a. That she had won Strictly and it was going to boost her singing career so didnt want to spend weeks touring
b. The Strictly tour might not have been as well received as it was as it was an unknown at that time.

When does Katya get married? Isn't it next year? Maybe preparations for her wedding would stop her taking part.

Interestingly James and Ola have tweeted that they aren't going 'to be needed' on the tour this year. Don't think they are too happy about it judging by the way they seem on twitter (but then I could be reading too much into it)