I believe the figure quoted in this thread for Sunday X Factor's y-o-y drop is 23% which on a 17m overnight equates to a loss of 4m. Strictly Final's overnights kast year were 13m. Could be quite close.

Lucky for ITV they put Bieber on last night and not next Saturday.

fair enough that will be an interesting comparison.

Just doing a few calculations: it looks like to me that in the consolidated 'End of Year Top Ratings of 2011' chart, The X Factor and Strictly Come Dancing Finals are going to be very close to each other. There's even an outside chance of SCD Final topping XF Final in the officials if tonight's XF final underperforms vs. recent weekly y-o-y declines. Here's why:

- The X Factor's Sunday shows have been down year-on-year by an average of -22% in the last three weeks or so. I would assume that tonight's final will be similarly down compared to last year's 17.2m overnight rating, which should mean it'll overnight tonight at about 13.4m (I suspect a range of about 13.2-13.6m). In the last three years, TXF Final Result has timeshifted about 0.5-0.7m on top of the overnight. So all in all, tonight's final should be looking to end up at about 14.0m in the BARB finals (exc +1).

- As for Strictly Come Dancing: the final performance show in the last two years has rated about +15% higher than the average of the performance shows for the previous three weeks. If that same trend happens this year, we're possibly looking at an overnight of about 12.4m for next week's final performance show. The final results show normally rates about 0.2-0.5m higher than the performance show, so I'd say it could be looking at about 12.7m for the results in the overnights (about 0.4m down from last year). In the last two years, the SCD Final Results show has timeshifted about +1.2m compared to the overnight figure. It'll probably be similar this time too as it has a similar timing to last year. So that would mean the SCD final results is possibly looking at about 13.9m in the BARB finals.

Basically, I think it's going to be very close between the pair of them in the BARB finals. XF should be clearly ahead in the overnights for the final but due to SCD's stronger finale timeshift, the BARB Finals will be very interesting to look at, especially if there's a difference of just half a million or so in the overnights.

talking of X-Factor finale, what was the rating last year (same for SCD if possible) ?

Why was Justin Bieber given this slot?. I did some investigating and he's really not that successful in the UK. He has not sold enough records to even be in the top 40 selling singles or albums charts for the year to date.
They should have done one with Adele. The most successful music act this year UK and worldwide(and the UK this century) by far and a home grown one as well. I reckon an Adele special would pull +8m, possibly 10m.
Whever you personally like her or not, she would be a ratings magnet.

They could resurect John Lennon or Elvis Presley and they still wouldn't get 8-10m for a music special. Adele might do better than Beiber, but 4-5m at most I would think.

No, they've got Westlife then...I can't imagine them denting Strictly too much to be honest. Harry Potter could be an interesting opponent for the main show; it's much tougher than what they had last year (Take Me Out and Bridget Jones' Diary).

The X Factor 11.12.10; 7pm-9pm: 14.05m (52.6%)
The X Factor 12.12.10; 7.30pm-9.30pm: 17.16m (55%)

Strictly Come Dancing 19.12.10; 7pm-8pm: 12.97m (45.8%)
Strictly Come Dancing 19.12.10; 9pm-10pm: 13.08m (47.6%)

That would provide an interesting situation for the newspapers. They tend to only report the overnights because modern society is impatient and wants everything now now now, so they would be reporting an X Factor win. But I'm sure they'd prefer to report a Strictly win because they do seem to have enjoyed giving X Factor a kicking at every opportunity this year.

for shits and giggles

2010

2011

not sure if the 2010 is the final or over night, but year on year 2011 already looks low, even more so if you consider the share.

All 2010 figures are the overnights.

in that case, down 4 million and 12%, that is well um, can anyone spin that as good news for X-Factor? seriously anyone, I would be seriously impressed.

The X Factor continues to be the most watched programme on commercial television. While we may be down on what was a terrific year for the show, the programme has remained strong, continuing to beat its main rival the majority of the time.

ok so im a little bit impressed.


anyways X-Factor down 4 million, Manchester United playing in the Europa leauge, all we need now is the axing of Corrie, and thats 3 signs of the 2012 apocalypse right there.

Not to mention the BBC trying to target ITV's core heartland next year with The Voice.

It's not down 4m, it's down 3.1-3.4m depening on whether you include +1 or not

Its quite easy to spin because its not THAT big of a disaster as some would have. People forget that SCD beat XF all the time in the beginning if i recall. Also it makes it more interesting for here at least if both shows are at a level where guessing the ratings is more fun and who will win.

You're still not getting it. Nobody has said these ratings aren't good in themselves just that they're not good compared to XF's own standards or where the show normally is in relation to Strictly. It's all relative. Saying 'but 10m is still good' and ignoring the huge declines is only asking for trouble. What if the huge declines continued into the next series? As it happens the show's problems this series will probably be looked at and fixed for next year because thankfully the show's execs don't view things the way you do.

At this point it's probably worth mentioning that last night's was the worst performing X Factor final since 2006, with the lowest audience share since 2005.

It's no longer about why it's not matching last year's extraordinary run more closely, instead it's about why last night's was the worst rated final for 5 or 6 years depending on which measure you use.

The producers have lots of work to do for next year to try and halt or reverse these big declines we've witnessed.

I'm glad the X Factor is only down 3.1m, as that is OK.

I haven't really got into the X factor this year but will probably watch to see who wins.

I don't think next year we will see a decline at all. well maybe down 1-5% but not huge.

I will take no comments from a newbie as yourself. You don't know the type of posters we are dealing with here

the ITV Flop Zone makes it interesting for this thread, does not make it good for ITV. Meanwhile whilst that 10 million is good for TV as a whole, its not good in the context of X-Factors history.

The 10% share loss for the show is equally as bad.


but that isnt really true is it, The X-Factor is a musical based entertainment show, whose focus is far too much on the judges manufactured spats, and contestants not judged on there singing ability.

The Voice on the other hand is what x-Factor should be, and should be alot more informative to viewers as to what is true vocal talent and how it can be trained.

To be fair to me, my post was always about X-Factors year on year ratings drop, not how it compares to the rest of TV. You cant ignore a 3 million drop, even on a show like X-Factor.

Sorry but there's no rule saying only long time members are allowed to post in this thread. You're really not getting the point those criticising the XF ratings are making.

TXF is still a big show, but the ridiculous overkill in the press, news bulletins, the extended shows and pointless spin offs is starting to turn people against it. Also could it be that the show could be past its best as seven years is a long run?