Were they made to watch it as a punishment? If they were Amnesty International will come down on the governmnet like a tongue of bricks.

That certainly has a feel of "Not our peak period" about it.

Is the Strictly final still in 3D on BBC HD - they seem to have gone a bit quiet about that.

I don't see this as the most inspiring schedule. EE will damage DA on ITV1, I can see a lot of viewers watching EE live and a hefty +1 rating for DA. Whereas DA live viewers will probably not fancy watching EE after DA at around 11.00pm. SCD ought beat CS by a small margin, Ab Fab & MM could be 5m & 4m respectively up against the final hour of DA. Ratatouille ought hold up better than The Gruffalo did in 2010, The Gruffalo's Child may well suffer in the 6.30pm timeslot. DW ought beat ASFF very easily at 7.00pm. Monsters vs Aliens ought dominate a Happy Feet rerun at 3.10pm.

DA may suffer more than people anticipate. If 11-12 million viewers watch EastEnders at 9.00pm, chances are they are going to stick with BBC1 and watch Abfab. Unless they take advantage of ITV+1 (and still largely they dont), the EE audience are not likely to watch an hours of DA.

I can see this being a Xmas of timeshifting, more than 10% of DA viewers watch in HD, (which looks 5 times better than SD), if I was home alone that evening I would watch EE live and then watch DA on ITV HD record delay at 10pm - in the process skipping around 25-35 minutes of adverts and filler. I expect I will record DA and watch it on Boxing Day though - 2hrs 05mins - cut down to less than 90 minutes.

One thing guaranteed is a better Xmas evening for ITV1 than 2010, Emmerdale will beat The Gruffalo's Child easily. Though Ratatoille will give it a decent lead-in.

Not if 7 and a half million people are watching Ratatouille.

The only ones I expect to do badly are The Butlins Story, The Comedy Annual and The Unforgettable Ernie Wise. Given the opposition, the latter could be embarrassingly low.

I've also got a sneaking suspicion that Downton Abbey's Behind the Scenes show could easily get 6/7m on Wednesday 21st against That's Britain, which I think is still on then. I know Frozen Planet is at 9pm but I think Downton Abbey could well set ITV in for that night given it's popularity.

In terms of who wins what days in primetime:

Saturday 17th - BBC1 walkover
Sunday 18th - BBC1
Monday 19th - ITV1
Tuesday 20th - BBC1
Wednesday 21st - ITV1 walkover
Thursday 22nd - BBC1, but ITV1's soaps could make this a tie
Friday 23rd - ITV1
Christmas Eve - BBC1, depending on Text Santa impact
Christmas Day - BBC1, depending on Downton Abbey
Boxing Day - BBC1 walkover
Tuesday 27th - BBC1
Wednesday 28th - BBC1
Thursday 29th - BBC1
Friday 30th - BBC1, but in reality no one deserves to win!

Based on what I have seen, Boxing Day onwards - ie the "second" Christmas week if you want to call it that, is a BBC1 walk over. ITV1 tend to do better in the week leading up to it, however their very stupid scheduling on Boxing Day means that it will be a BBC1 walk over.

And in conclusion, I make that:

BBC1 - 11
ITV1 - 3

Or, if we are to say ITV1 wins the days where I've put a tie or 'depending on...':

BBC1 - 8
ITV1 - 6

I'll be surprised if it ends that close though.

Well 25m+ ought be watching tv at 6.00pm, I can see Emmerdale getting 7-8m depending on the storyline in that week. As a BBC1 fan I would like to see Ratatouille rating 7m+, but can see The Gruffalo's Child getting 5.5m or so, not that viewers will switch for half of Emmerdale - hopefully BBC1 barb viewers will stay signed in whilst they go and make cold turkey sandwiches.

Broadly agree with that analysis.

I wonder if we now need to add The Borrowers to the list of shows that could potentially join the 2011 Top 20. Indeed, could it officially rate at c10m with the likely promotion and ITV's scheduling cock up?

Weds 21st, btw, is a bit more robust for BBC1 - Nigel Slater and Celeb Mastermind, followed by the Royles repeat at 9pm (surely the 2010 special, not the 2000 one?)

The cold turkey - one hopes - comes for ITV bosses on Boxing Day morning when they see Downton's overnights and think "hm, did we get a bit carried away with ourselves here...?"

(Of course, we have absolutely no idea how DA will do. But using some common sense, and applying rzt's "25% discount" formula, I can't see it getting more than 7m live on the night)

You do realise that Gruffalo was a repeat last year? It premiered in 2009 at 5.30pm to an overnight audience of 8.8m, making it the 5th most watched programme of the day, nearly 1m ahead of ITV1's highest rated programme.

I don't think this one is up for debate.

Based on past data we know ITV1 will lose the first 2 hours of prime and almost certainly the third, so even taking into account the potential for a very high Downton audience that goes against what normally happens when ITV1 puts out a high-profile drama on Xmas Day, it won't be enough to take the evening.

If I had to rate ITV's chances of winning Xmas Day, even with the weakish BBC One schedule, I would put it at no higher than 10% probability. More chance of a White Christmas!

Ignore me for a second, Frozen Planet actually was moved to Wednesday 28th at 7pm which seems like an utterly bizarre move to me.

A bit more robust, but I don't see that schedule threatening the ITV1 one to be honest. It won't flop, it'll still be in the 3.5m to 4.5m range, but it won't beat the ITV1 one - unless I am overestimating the Downton Power.

Memories of 1992 when Darling Buds Of May was the biggest programme on the TV and got a Boxing Day trouncing at the hands of Noel Edmonds and the Summer Wine gang. I've mentioned that before but I feel it's worth mentioning it again because it was such a moment.

I can see that getting 5m, I don't see why you've lumped it in with the Butlins story and The Comedy Annual especially given how well that M&W drama did last Christmas.
It starts against Madagascar 2 and has a lead in from Emmerdale and will do well with older viewers particularly.

Some ITV big losers in recent years are Midsomer Murders, Doc Martin and the infamous high profile Booze Cruise 2. All originally huge ratings pullers. All got thrashed. DA wont get thrashed. It will dent EastEnders and could pull in 8 million viewers, but I doubt it will win outright against BBC1.

FP's just a compilation, isn't it?

And Downton Power didn't seem to do Countrywise much good when it screened The Real Downton Abbey just before Countryfile one Sunday in September.

Totally random and early overnight ratings prediction - and why not?

BBC1:

3.10 Monsters and Aliens - 6m
4.50 Ratatouille - 7m
6.30 The Gruffalo - 7m
7.00 DW - 10m [official 11.5m]
8.00 SCD - 7.8m [official 9.2m]
9.00 EE - 8.5m [official 10m]
10.00 AB Fab - 7.2m [official 8m]
10.30 Michael Mcintyre - 5.7m [this will shoot up at c11pm]

ITV1:

6.00 Em Fm - 6.5m
7.00 ASFF - 6m
8.00 Coro - 8m [official 9.1m]
9.00 DA - 8m [official 10.8m]

So, not a stellar Christmas Night for BBC1 compared to recent years, but still largely winning the day - ITV should be ahead 10-11pm and nose ahead in the overnights 8pm-9pm. I would think Doctor Who will win in the overnights, and probably just edge out Downton and EastEnders in the officials.

Thanks to ITV's generosity in the 7pm hour, it should at least avoid "Downton cleans up" headlines the next day even if it does outrate EastEnders, because Doctor Who should be top show on the day, meaning the 9pm battle is a bit of a sideshow.

I think you are under estimating EastEnders. Apparently the storyline in December regarding Yusef's abuse of Zainab culminates on Christmas Day. People will WANT to see the demise of an evil b.*ast.*ard so the soap could easily get 12 million viewers this year.

It's a one hour compilation of best bits. I think 7pm is a good slot.

Then again, if a New Tricks repeat is the best they can manage for Friday 30th, perhaps they should have stuck it there...


The original Madagascar got an official audience of 5.44m on Boxing Day 2008, and made the BBC1 Top 30 - and that was much earlier, at 4.10pm! (The 2nd Pirates of the Caribbean film only managed 1.49m more in peak time 8.30-10.50pm that night)

So I think it will do very well at 6.10pm with a head start on EmFm, and be a great lead in for The Borrowers.

I do think The Borrowers will be trailed to death by BBC1. It's a fantastic cast and looks superb.

Imagine if it outrated Downton....

A "Best Boxing Day in Years" prediction too...

BBC1
3:00pm Winter Wipeout - 4m
4:00pm Shrek 2 - 4.8m
5:25pm BBC News
5:40pm Jim'll Fix it with Shane Richie - 5m
6:10pm Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa - 6m
7:30pm The Borrowers - 8.3m [official - 9.2m]
9:00pm EastEnders - 10m [official 11.5m]
9:30pm The Royal Bodyguard - 9.1m [official 10m]
10:00pm Mrs. Brown's Boys - 5.8m
10:30pm BBC News - 5.3m
10:45pm Match of the Day - 4.5m

ITV1

3.30 Harry Potter - 5m
6.30 Emmerdale - 5.7m
7.00 Ernie Wise - 3.9m
8.00 Coro St - 7.7m
9.00 Poirot - 4.4m

Nobody can accuse of underestimating Boxing Day Robbie

Oh I think Madagascar 2 will rate well, but the animations usually skew young. There will be plenty of oldies available at 7pm to watch the Ernie Wise doc especially with Emmerdale[by far the Soap with the oldest skew] as a lead in.


This is my prediction too.

Yes, last Boxing Day was, at least for BBC1, the WORST Boxing Night line up ever! It was dull as dishwater, yet bizarrely still beat ITV's schedule of a movie premiere and Benidorm!

Might as well have a crack at Xmas Eve while I'm at it...

BBC1
4.50 Winter Wipeout - 4.5m
5.50 Narnia - 5.5m
8.00 Merlin - 7.5m
8.45 EE - 9.0m
9.20 Outnumbered - 7m
10.0 Lapland - 5m

ITV1
6.00 YBF - 5.7m
6.30 The Cube - 6.5m
7.30 Text Santa - 4.8m
10.0 Piers - 3.5m

I'm mystified by both the late slot for Lapland, and the 15 minute trim.

I can only assume it's a grade A stinker, and not only does it get a graveyard slot, but they've had to cut bits out to make it watchable.

Shame...