Originally Posted by kwynne42:
“So what? do you think every single person of the maybe 200-300k (if that much) who watched on +1 all watched it twice, if you included the repeat of EE on BBC3 wouldn't you have to show the late showing off Emmerdale on ITV2 and the showing at 6.50 this morming and the early afternoon showing”
There's a far easier way - just compare the unaugmented 7pm ITV1 showing to the 8pm BBC1 showing.
Apples with apples...
As rzt points out, only 100k watched +1. OK, so it's just 0.5m shy then. We didn't know that an hour ago though.
As for your query about the science of ratings, you make a fair point. But sampling in this way has a proven record - take opinion polls for elections. Although pollsters vary in their methodology, the most accurate pollster pretty much got the voting shares at the last General Election bang on, likewise with the AV referendum result in May, and also the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll on Election Night managed to sample (I think) 10,000 voters in selected wards across the UK and predicted fairly accurately the number of seats (not just the vote share) that each party would end up with 18 hours later when all were declared.
So this proves that, done right, public opinion sampling can be pretty damned near 100% accurate.
Originally Posted by rzt:
“Even excluding +1, Emmerdale got 8.1m and was just 0.5m behind EastEnders. Whatever way you look at it, EastEnders should be more than just half a million ahead of Emmerdale on a Monday night, especially in its usually-high rated period of December. A sub-35% share for EastEnders against the usual mediocre factual opposition is poor and it is quite worrying for EE that it hasn't managed a 9m overnight at all so far this Autumn. [Corrie's 8.30pm rating was poor too but at least it's quite evident the Panorama episode pulled away a chunk of its viewers]. People predicting last week an 11m-13m overnight for EE's Christmas Day episode are being way too optimistic. The way things are going, even against weak competition EE would've struggled to get that, against DA it's pretty much got no chance.”
I broadly agree. Funnily enough, at the very start of this thread 5 long years ago, I raised concerns about EE's lacklustre pre-Christmas performance.....
Originally Posted by RobbieSykes123:
“I'm amazed at how poor EastEnders' ratings have been in recent weeks. So much so that I can't see it getting the no1 slot on Christmas Day - which could undermine Dibley's prospects too.”
Originally Posted by RobbieSykes123:
“You'd think so - but it has been getting appalling ratings lately, rarely hitting 10m now.
Could 2006 mark the point when EE actually started to harm BBC1's ratings over an evening, rather than locking viewers in? - I would think many homes will have "given Doc Martin half an hour" tonight - we'll see tomorrow...”
But those concerns proved unfounded, as the Xmas Day overnights proved...
Originally Posted by GeorgeS:
“1 …. 11.4 (46.6%) …. The Vicar of Dibley (21:30) BBC1
2 …. 10.7 (44.0%) …. EastEnders (21:00) BBC1
3 …. 9.6 (39.8%) …. Coronation Street (20:00) ITV
.....
12 …. 5.3 (22.2%) …. Doc Martin (21:00) ITV”
Doc Martin being the 9-10m drama powerhouse that ITV pitched up opposite EE and Dibley, in a feature length episode, as their "exocet" for that years ratings battle.
Hm...