I want some smart people to tell me abit more about x factor tracker and other statistics online.

x factor tracker keeps getting the bottom 2 right and im worried about my act this week.

is this down to total guessing and just a little add up on who they think is more popular.

Does it effect the voting and are they correct saying little mix
1st marcus 2nd and amelia 3rd.

or could those 3 be in different order

how important is social media for the whole vote?

i know my question doesnt make much sense but i hope it makes some sense

It's the same as Google trends, monitoring how often someone is mentioned and also taking into account positive/negative comments.

It's a more useful gauge than say YouTube views, as the YouTube audience is narrower and they are already going to the effort of seeking out the videos. Doing a general survey of social networking gives a better indication.

But, and it's a big but, you are still only surveying the internet audience and X-Factor being a mainstream show means you have a lot of older viewers they are missing. Although they might have a 'sample' of people on Facebook to get round it, as that is harder to trawl for information.

It's likely it's under-representing Marcus, who is the safe middle-of-the-road contestant who always does well in the final. Probably over-representing Little Mix a bit. Amelia and Misha about right.

The final will come down to song choices and who the duets are though as usual.

First of all they don't always get the bottom two right, but the one eventually eliminated has been one of their predictions. Just because there are a lot of social media discussion, doesn't mean those people are voting.

You could just as easily look at the bookies odds for the act to be eliminated and it would be right most of the time. Also earlier today they were showing that their prediction for NU Vibe was incorrect and The Risk was correct, they have now reversed those. So I don't know how reliable their previous results are.

It is useful to get an idea how popular your favourite is, but it doesn't take into account how many times people will vote. Someone whos supports an act may vote once, the next person may vote a 100 times.

I would also say looking at it after the result on Sunday, but before they have performed the following Saturday is totally useless. A lot depends on how they perform.

The manipulation by the show matters far more than the performances.

And social networking picks up on how people have been manipulated. Bookies odds are just down to what people are placing money on, which is a completely different audience to the 10 million viewers in general.

Who goes out though is who the producers want. If they really want Amelia out next week they'll just give her bad songs, low-key staging without all the spot lights, and a few well chosen comments like being shouty etc.

Voting in X-Factor is a fool's game really, because even the bigger fanbases are tiny in comparison to the wider audience who watches the show. The casual vote is what decides it, and it's the casual vote that is so easily influenced. The fans are just being milked of their money by multivoting.

It's not like the changes to Big Brother where the tiny audience and Facebook block voting meant the fans could hold the balance of power.

Marcus and Little Mix will be in the final. Who makes it out of Misha and Amelia will be down to who they have lined up as duets. One of them will be kneecapped next week and go home.

do you think amelia will win bananafish if she gets to the final.

or is it beyond her now.

The winners are middle of the road, the ones who divide opinion least. Marcus has winner written all over him as far as X-Factor is concerned.

Little Mix is the same story as 1D last time, no group has won, girl groups have done even worse, aren't they all lovely girls, please help them make history. It's the main positive story of the show to cancel out all the negative ones and has been pushed even harder than 1D has. Because the story has wider appeal than just a boyband for the tweenies they stand a good chance of picking up the mum vote.

Misha has no chance of winning, too much controversy despite their extensive backtracking and makeover. They wanted her around as long as possible though for promotion purposes, exactly like Cher.

Amelia making the final depends on what duets they have lined up. They want the big names for publicity and ratings. This is the main reason Janet was dumped, as well as her being too unreliable for the Wembley final. If they can get say Christina for a duet with Amelia then Misha will be dumped next week, or vice versa if they get someone big for Misha.

If she makes the final she'd almost definitely finish 3rd, although she may inherit a sort of backlash vote from people unhappy their favourites have gone home and those who want the comeback kid to win the show.

The final will be between Marcus and Little Mix though, Marcus most likely to win but Little Mix the better story which the producers will do all they can to push.

Amelia has a very outside chance of winning, better than Misha. She could pull off an amazing duet, but that would depend on her being given the opportunity to do so in the first place with good songs.