little mix 5-4
marcus 11-8
amelia 6-1
misha 10-1

now solving this equation is simple.

little mix odds at 5-4 show no value whatsoever as no group has ever won the show and they might top the x factor tracker all the time but i still think they wont get as much votes as you think within the middle age vote viewers who clearly have the say in this more than the teen vote so in my opinion at 5-4 no value whatsoever for little mix if people got them on at 66-1 etc then fair play that was worth the punt but anything under 7-1 for little mix to win the show outright is a total joke.

marcus---i think marcus odds are over valued to but not to the extreme of little mixs odds i think a 5-2 for marcus to win would be very fair odds anything below 5-2 is again a total joke considering matt was around 5-2 before the final that night and he topped the vote most weeks so i think yet again the bookies are trying to make people think marcus and little mix are wide favourites but clearly not.

amelia---at 6-1 is such a tasy bet in my opinion all my money is on amelia to win the show and at 6-1 her odds are still very good and clearly under valued i think a fair price for her would be 7-2 not 6-1 she is more than capable of putting on another great performance again this week and is the biggest threat to marcus on the big night not LITTLE MIX.

misha ----10-1 is yet again over valued her odds should be 50-1 and im not even messing if she does make it through to the final this year which is a big if then her final place would be 3rd she could never beat 3rd place so for her to be 10-1 to win the show is a total disgrace.

my tips would be amelia to win the show 6-1 outright.
if amelia just hasnt enough time to get her fanbase going

then marcus 1st and amelia 2nd at 9-1 is a very tasty bet instead.

i love the little mixers really do but i think if amelia sings songs like china in your hand again and marcus does what he has already done then i really do think they will be the top 2.

what do you think and what are your tips ?

They will all be given great song choices for the final. They have to have a good final for people to remember next year.

Misha or Amelia very likely out this week no matter what they sing - hence the short odds on the other 2 winning it.

Those odds will change once this weeks over and money starts going on the favourite act.

A 3 horse race is a safer bet than 4. So you might even get 5/2 on marcus depending on what bets are struck.

personally i think Little mix will be odds on to win next week. so i will be looking at a bet on marcus if its value - over 2-1

I like Little Mix, but they do feel like the one direction of this year's x-factor

I'm just amazed how seriously you take this.

I'm hoping that you have other more worthwhile stuff going on in your life than focussing on that!

However many minutes you took working all that out, you'll never get those minutes back in your life.

Is this thread a joke?

I think Amelia will suffer from the 'Is it fair she was brought back?' doubts in people's minds, and Little Mix will benefit from the 'Wouldn't it be great if a girlband were to actually win?' fascination.

I don't agree with the analysis, but er... you do realise that they're talking about making money?

I often bet on these shows too - it's usually pretty easy to pick the possible winners early on, and make a nice bit of extra cash while watching something you enjoy.

Huh?

Its as good an analysis as you will get on any betting site.

Just be thankful someone is giving you some good tips if you fancy a flutter.

I'm not sad enough to bet money on a TV show. I think it's a bit sad, sorry!

Well reasoned.

slowdown everyone is entitled to there opinion but i like betting on things it just want i do.

People like to drink and people like to smoke my interest is betting on things.

I think the show is far more interesting when you have a bet on it.

i had rebecca to win last year she came 2nd but she defo gave me a great go for my bet and i almost won alot of money.

i also like betting on the eurovision and i was sucessful with azerbaijan and won a decent amount of money.

so if you like a show and at the end of it you could make some money to if it i really dont see the problem :P

i hardly think its wasting my life away,when infact you could say the same thing about you that you have wasted a few minutes wasting your life posting a comment on my thread that has no foundation whatsoever.

i hardly call that a life going on an internet forum and disaproving someone of betting on a tv show.

What do you want me to say? I think it's sad to bet money on a TV show!

I've never bet on anything in my life. Never have and never will.

I don't drink. I don't smoke. I'd never touch drugs. I'm not going to start throwing money on betting (which can be addictive).

If you're into it, then that's fine. I just get my kicks out of other things in life than throwing my money way, or living my life on the hope I may win some.

The 'time spent' comment was referring to the research you did on your first post. I'm not against what you're doing. I'm just surprised that you seem to be so serious about it. That's all. What you do with your money is your business.

it actually didnt take me to long to work out actually.

my first post could be totally wrong its just my opinion on how things have worked out.

i predicted the only way amelia would win this year is if janet went last week and she did
it works out beautifully for her because she has more time to showcase her skills for another weeek or so before the final while misha is on her final legs which means she will go this week.
and amelia will be far more popular with the middle aged voters than little mix if she performs like she did with china in your hand.could you really see a middle aged person picking up the phone and voting little mix after seeing there baby performance and seeing marcus pull his top up showing his abs and thats where most of his votes are coming from.

i think kelly has so many contacts in the business she could get a really good duet for amelia to steal it.

6-1 is a total generous price

put 20 euro on that and you make a 120 euro profit.

not bad for just watching a tv show.

1D never topped the polls and odds... these are aorientative but don't use to fail...

Just because you are a fan of amelia doesn't mean she'll win, she's been in the b2, she has no.chance

I don't doubt that you know what you're talking about.

M apple

On another year i would agree with you but been in the bottom 2 this year is an advantage not a disadvantage it means amelia fans now know she aint safe no more and will keep voting.

no group has ever won so are you ruling them out to

no black male winner has ever won guess your ruling marcus out to

looks like we are running out of winners :S as if m apple says it it must be true :S

Yes but for a b2 to win is far far more unlikely than a group or black male, because it shows a lack of support...

A logical explanation would be good, for starters. You're inconsistent - one minute you say it's sad, the next minute you say it's fine. Just because you're a teetotaller, it doesn't make you morally superior to those of us who do indulge.

Oh, and having a flutter on X Factor hardly makes you an addict. No need to bring that up, any more than telling us you don't drink, as if it was some badge of pride. Gambling obsessively, staking more money than you can afford to lose makes you an addict, and that I have never done, and would never do. All it takes is a little self-control.

I don't always get it exactly right, but I've made a substantial net profit from stuff like X Factor in the past. Not loads of cash, by any means, but they've funded extra holidays and such. If anything, simply watching the show and nattering on about it, is much more of a waste of time.

The celebrity guests will determine the winner, imo.

The winner always gets the big star while the others get landed with B-listers, acts on their umpteenth performance on the show or flop acts.

M apple

but the week before amelia was in the bottom 2 she topped the vote and she also got 48 percent to come back into the show.so there is support for her.

its clearly down the song choice and if amelia can go from top in the votes to 2nd last in the space of a week i dont see why it cant happen to marcus.

i also think marcus struggled last week with his ballad and shows that he struggles without a big choir behind him.

he has loue bega written all over him mambo no.5

he's good but get boring after a while marcus has peaked way to early for me

why is it sad. A bet is a bet, whether its on a tv show, a horse a football match or whether some old lady drops her chips outside the local takeaway. Thats the idea of a bet/gambling. U can bet on what u like

Yow do you know she topped the vote after she'd come back, that's just speculation.