Wow, you're looking into this a bit too much and misinterpreting what I've said.

I do think it's sad. For me. I just wouldn't do it. If it does something for you, then that's fine. I just don't get it. I'm not going to tell you to stop!

I don't think I'm morally superior at all. My original post, if you read it correctly, was about the time spent on doing the research for the odds. I was kind of surprised that someone would look so deeply into it. Each to their own, though. I guess I'm just responsible with my money - and don't waste it on cigarettes, alcohol, betting, etc. You can do with your money what you want.

I never said that a bet on X Factor turns you into an addict. I have however seen the repercussions of betting and gambling in my distant family - which led to someone losing everything they had. So, my point about betting being addictive wasn't completely unfounded. It was a comment. Betting is betting, whichever way you look at it. Some people become addicted to it, some don't. Nothing to do with wearing a 'badge of pride' as you put it.

Your suggested odds don't make any sense.

7/1, 5/2, 7/2, 50/1 is only about a 65% market. You could back all 4 and be guaranteed a profit.

You came in this thread, making condescending comments about the OP and other people who want to have a flutter on X Factor, calling it sad without qualification, saying it's a waste of time when there's profit to be made, and have tried to make yourself superior by telling us all what a teetotaller you are (that's your badge of pride).

There's nothing more to say, as you're quite clearly backtracking from your rude comments.

hey pavster there the odds i would put on the remaining contestants for value of course those odds cant be done as you would make a profit if you did all of them and if that was the case all bookies would be out of business

so my point was to look for the best value out of the remaining 4 and it looked like amelia but also if amelia cant win then marcus 1st and amelia 2nd looks great at 9-1

and i agree with snozzcumber

there was no need for that person to be so rude in his comments.

fair enough if he doesnt like gambling but to say its sad and that we have no life because we like to put a bet on for the weekend so we can relax and enjoy the show even more is ridiculous.

You haven't got a clue, have you? You're totally misunderstanding what I wrote and taking it out of context.

The whole 'teetotaller' thing was about me not having an addictive personality. It's a known fact that betting can instigate addiction. If you fail to see that, well, then...... I wear no badge of pride, but I do err on the side caution when it comes to throwing my money away on a TV show!

slowdown you said it was sad and pretty much instiugated that i had no life.

you havent just offended me but you have offended others by the looks of it.

i understand you dont like gambling and think its a waste of money to bet on tv shows.

but you could of easily not commented on the thread or you could of said something like not my sort of thing instead of pretty much attacking me and putting me down.

shame on you to be honest

Well, I'm really sorry that you're offended by my opinion.

Attacking you and putting you down? There's no personal attack there. It's a comment. I think there are things more useful to spend time on than something that could lose me money! I let you have your opinion, please let me have mine. You're trying to turn this into a personal attack. I find you just as rude quoting me in the third person in your post above to snozzcumber.

Peaked! I don't know what he would be like off-form, I bet 5 million people in the UK could sing better than him.

You can bet your boots the girl group will win it, not that they are good, far from it but for marketing purposes. Scouse would be a disaster he's nearly as bad as McElderberry was. The Geordie girl can't win the whole credibility of the show has gone if she wins, as she has lost once already.

Misha is the only one this year who can sing (one more than most years) but neither looks or acts the part, which is of no use to Mr Coward.

Nothing's out of context. It's right there to be read by everyone - you came in here flinging insults, acting superior. No one cares if you're a teetotaller or not, just don't call other people sad because they enjoy things you don't.

Oh, and no, you're very much mistaken if you think gambling instigates addiction. You can spend your whole life gambling, even in a professional capacity as a full time poker player or involved in various types of financial speculation, without being an addict. A lack of self control, going in deeper than you should - that's what makes you an addict.

Throwing your money away is gambling on the roll of the dice. This is anything but that - there are easily spotted, fairly reliable trends here.

Take care now.

Totally clueless.

I think your analysis is spot-on. And it is interesting. (And, to doubters, I do have a life)! As you say, if Amelia gets great songs, she will win. I have a feeling she topped the vote in the weeks when she sang Queen, and last week too. Combination of song choice and running order. Oh and she's a great,v powerful and charismatic singer too!

Wow, must be a real blast round at your house ...

If you need to pump your body full of stuff that's bad for you, your health and your well-being (as well as that of others) then good for you.

I don't need to do that.

It's going to be VERY close between the Mix, Marcus and Amelia. ... Hard to call.
So a small bet on Amelia at today's odds 11/2 looks very attractive.

Best way to play this is a back-to-lay arbitrage on Betfair.

I've got £100 on LM at 2.36, then when either Mischa (most likely) or Amelia goes home this week, the odds will shorten on the remaining three.

Given LM's continuing position as #1 on xfactortracker, I'd expect their price to drop to around 1.5 (that's 2/1 on, in old money) in the week leading up to the final, so I'll lay them for £157 which will then guarantee a profit of £54 whoever wins.

I agree that Amelia is the value bet, I have a hunch Marcus will win though because he'll get the mums and grans. But if Amelia stands out as a performer she could manage it.

Very thoughtful analysis.

You sound really boring.

Really? You don't know me. You know nothing about me. Only that I don't drink, bet, smoke or take drugs. Does that really make boring?

I have a lot of interests and pursuits which keep me more than happy, busy and full of fun.

I'm guessing you don't.

Hey stephenhkent.

I think you made a good point about amelia she did have 2 very good performances with the show must go on and last week with china in your hand

if you look at her strike rate for wow moments its pretty impressive compared to the others

Amelia lily (5 songs 2 wow moments) =40 %
Little mix (9 songs 2 wow moments) =22.20%
marcus (9 songs 1 wow moment not even sure he did but for the doubters lets do it)=11.10%
Misha(9 songs 1 wow moment not even sure she did but for the doubters lets do it) =11.10%

So amelia clearly is the best performer and if given the right songs then she can do it again buts its a big if as she as not always had the best song choices billie jean for example that would be hard for any girl to sing.

I also like the fact that amelia can change her style so quickly and might get more voters.her 1st song showed her to be angelic and elegant with no shoes on either and her hair tied in a bun she looked really nice then for her last song even tho it was shouty at times but it is a shouty song she had her hair down and looked like a rocker which she is know for so she clearly has abit of everything it just depends on if she has enough time to close the gap on little mix and marcus before the final show down after all she did cut down craigs fan base and janets and mishas last week so dont see why she cant do the 2 favourites to on the big night.

as someone else said whoever gets the best duet on the big night will win and i agree as its to close to call this year and the little things could count for everything.the fact that kelly knows beyonce and gary barlow knows robbie williams says it all to me.kelly can get a better duet.

and little mix might have huge social media favourtism but social media is a small pond compared to the viewers who vote all over the place on the big night.

the "wow" moment thing is all subjective and in my opinion she's had none. why do you think amelia has a better chance than little mix, who clearly have a bigger fanbase compared to amelia in vote terms.

Fanbase's hardly win, i would argue that JLS and Eoghan had bigger fanbases then Alexandrer a few years back but the casual vote won it for her

the only fan base you know about little mix is on the net as i said social media is a small pond compared the voters.

example you could have 11 people liking little mix and just 1 person liking amelia and those 11 people vote once each for little mix and someone votes 11 times for amelia who has a better chance of winning.

amelia may have been in bottom 2 but its not because of a lack of support its just simple why she was 5th place on the night that night.
*janet had her best song yet it was her performance of the contest
*marcus had pimp slot and had the whole choir helping him
*little mix had there wow moment which would make anyone go through with dont let go
*and misha went through simply on the sympathy vote as the vt was very excessive and she used that lifeline up but she has no more now.

simple as thats why amelia and craig were bottom that night

but since amelia was the best performer last saturday i dont see why she wasnt near the top of the voting again since she was in the top 3 voting last week anyways who says she didnt top it.

everyone here is a little mix fan but if you look at the poll on this site who did best amelia is leading it by 40 percent so even tho there is a lack of amelia fans on this site they still had the honesty to admit she was the best on the night so why wouldnt the public think the same out there and vote for her?