I'm sure there's many who supported Kara last year who are supporting Harry this year, just as you'll get Matt fans from last year who this year are supporting Chelsee. However I've personally seen much more of a crossover on here between Kara's support from last year and Chelsee's this year. It's even fairly apparent on this thread and many posting on Chelsee's Appreciation thread this year were posting on Kara's last year. Likewise it's posters from Matt's Appreciation thread from last year who are more noticeable on Harry's App. thread.

I think the gender of the contestants is more of an influence in that regard and despite Monkseal's interesting parallels between Harry and Kara, IMO there's a far bigger parallel in terms of appeal to viewers between Chelsee and Kara. Something I think which is highlighted by there being as I said much more of an apparent crossover between their respective fan bases (on here at least).

Both Harry and Matt started out as clear favourites and despite the allusions to Kara's middle class background Matt was assumed to be more to the tastes of Middle England. Likewise Harry vis-a-vis Chelsee and as a good-looking young male he is like Matt assumed (rightly IMO) to have a big advantage over a young female given Strictly's demographic. Kara was very much the underdog in the weeks leading up to last year's final and Chelsee is in much the same position this year. However against that and in their favour is that both have widely been considered to be the most naturally talented dancer of their series and both were able to endear themselves to people on account of being seemingly unaware of how good they actually are/were. There's a certain rooting for the talented underdog appeal to them both.

Harry = Ricky Whittle
Good movers but as emotionally engaging as a wet weekend in Milton Keynes.

Interesting theory monkseal. Kara and Harry are good friends so maybe she gave him a few tips on how to play the game
(joking of course )



This again really?

Did you see the voting percentages on IACGMOOH? Dougie only topped the vote once, was in the bottom two and and in the middle of the vote for much of the show. He was behind Mark in the semi final.
Think he one alot of swinging voters over when they finally got see him be his adorable smiley self during the last trial and interview with Ant and Dec.

If he and Harry both win it will be on their own merit. Your fan base will only get you so far.

... I thought it was just me with 'Hedge-Envy'.

<...b*tch! still not over it!>

This part is actually not true. Harry didn't start as the clear favourite, Jason did. Harry was going under the radars until about his Waltz week, when his 30 second of good dancing + Aliona's strange choreography put him on the map. Chelsee was more noticeable from the beginning. She didn't top the leader board for a bit because she didn't perform as well as Jason, but her technique was the best at the beginning of the show and her dancing really stood out from the bunch. Harry has caught up with her through the competition.

To be honest I didn't even notice Harry until about his Jive/waltz week. Whereas I very distinctly remember Chelsee's waltz from week 1 and her salsa from week 2, Jason's Cha from week 1, his foxtrot from week 2, and his Tango from week 3.

So I'd say if anyone was the "favourite" to win it was Jason followed by Chelsee. Harry only became the favourite around his Samba and AT weeks.

Here is a piece on the betting and early favorites and how they have been doing over the weeks

http://www.betting-directory.com/spe...ncing-odds.php

Essentially it says Harry was always favorite to win but Jason's good dances early on raised his position, even though Chelsee was good her odds have gradually come down across the series and her odds possibly don't reflect how close bookies think it will be.

Kara had the advantage of having Artem as a choreographer who created killer routines - the American Smooth and the rumba. I think things started to turn in Kara's favour after the first AS in Blackpool, partly due to the routine and partly due to Len's criticism. Repeating it in the final sealed the deal with the added spice of the romance which was over-emphasised during the final VTs.

Pasha and Chelsee are a great partnership but I am not sure that his choreography will be dramatic or sentimental enough to win over the GBP - he has a tendency to put in ugly lifts which can spoil the mood. They also aren't playing along to romance/showmance angle which, sadly, could cost them.

Aliona seems to have developed a better understanding this series of what appeals to the GBP - the VW being a case in point.

The editing of the VTs may give an indication of how the producers see things and what they want the viewers to see. Matt's VTs got a lot less favourable to him by end - he was seen getting stroppy which hadn't been shown earlier in the series. Ali Bastian was shown in tears in the VT even before the titles rolled in the semifinal when she went out - similarly with Holly last week.

everyone committs harry kari

Wow, really? Shows how little the bookies understand about the show. Or maybe they're playing a clever game?

If the bookies announce Harry to be their favourite, which celebrity do you think people are likely to bet on? Obviously Harry is a safe choice, but considering the competition this year it would be better to bet on Chelsee and vote for her hoping that she wins... she has a very good shot at winning after all. I mean according to those bets it seems rather pointless to bet on Harry or vote for him based on betting unless the amount of bet is really high?

Do you guys think the bets actually influence how people vote?

If they have a bit riding on it the definitely as they will want the return, but we really don't know how much has been placed. People placing bets this week are more likely to bet on Chelsee as it isn't that unrealistic she could go all the way and she'd still net a decent return. At one point you could get Chelsee 16/1 probably longer before the series began don't think Jason or Harry would ever had long odds so for many she could be a good earner especially if it was a bet just for her to get to this stage.

Chelsee will attract the 'common' votes, you know Iceland customers including all the X-factor types who've wandered across now that that's finished.
Apparently Chelsee's appeal is that she's 'bubbly' which I suppose is similar to the people who put 'bubbly' on their dating profiles. Which normally means that they're intensely annoying and tiresome.

Hmm, I am not sure if posters here (not you) are just too sensitive or trying to be obtuse. Let me clarify myself.

I am speaking of here as Chelsee and Harry supporter. I do support Chelsee more than Harry truth be told. If it's on Harry's QS week, then yes I would actually vote for Harry to win. But if it's the jive week, then Chelsee wins hands down.

Now all things being equal, between Chelsee and Harry, as both of them are EXCELLENT dancers with some natural abilities (Chelsee's natural sense of movement, esp. her upper body fluidity and Harry's natural sense of rhythm and his excellent top-line for ballroom etc.), I would say the Mcfly fan's votes will come into play. I would think under such circumstances, both of them will have supporters voting for them, but all things being equal, Harry WILL win because of the Mcfly fans-factor.

Ganz klar?

And leaving aside McFly, Harry personally has over 370,000 followers on twitter compared to Chelsee's 55,000. That's got to count for something, surely.

BIB - yes, precisely what I think as well.

Has the bookies favourite ever won? This exact theory makes me think that being bookies favourite would mean your chances of winning is quite low...

But on the other hand, the average viewer/better who is not a SCD avid fan and doesn't follow the show as we do, will probably think that being bookies' favourite means the celeb has a better chance of winning, and so they'll bet on the favourite. And this portion of the population might make up the majority of the betters.

Otherwise one would have to think that the bookies are rather stupid. I mean last year Kara was the obvious winner even before the final. Yet Matt was the favourite to win.

Was his followers garnered after the SCD series started or was Harry already quite popular before SCD *because of the Mcfly band factor*???

Don't forget Robbie has a lot of twitter followers and look what that has got him!

Wasn't Tom Chambers the bookies' favourite to win? And he won?

Wasn't Mark Ramprakash bookies' favourite to win? And he won?

Wasn't Alesha Dixom bookies' favourite to win (in the finals, after Gethin)? And she won?

Does Mcfly really have that many fans? For me Harry's involvement in McFly is one of his down points!

In fact the only finalist with a respectable career IMO is Jason, and that because of his role as a drag queen in Priscilla


Ok, thanks for the info. I didn't know about these. I never really caught on with who was the bookies favourite until last series where it was repeatedly said that Matt was the favourite.

Why the tone though?!

Hmm if I remember correctly

No tone. Just asking and genuinely surprised that you didn't seem to know it though you appeared to write with conviction that bookies' favourites oftentimes don't win. That's all.

Also don't forget that McFly have a lot of friends in the industry who tweeted their million+ followers to vote Dougie for the IAC final. This will probably repeat. Last time it was Glee stars, Draco Malfoy, One Direction etc.

But still, it all depends on the dances in the final. I think its very close.

Didn't help Robbie I think a lot of the Waterloo Road cast past and present do the same for Chelsee Nor do I think people actually care that much (if they do we live in worrying times )

Why isn't his involvement with McFly respectable? They've had quite an excellent career so far. More than anything I appreciate how charitable the band are. I believe I read Harry's fee has gone to his girlfriends charity which I think is for people with brain injuries. I could be wrong, though.

You leave me hanging in the air, mate. If you remembered correctly, what? You didn't end that sentence so I was wondering...

The thing with Robbie is, I reckon even his greatest fans realised it was time for him to go as there were better people left in the competition. He did incredibly well lasting as long as he did, and I think he left at the right time.

The answer is in the quote from you