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An unprecedented disagreement |
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#1 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 6,073
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An unprecedented disagreement
Oldtimers can confirm that DS forum Favourite Poll coming into the Final has pinpointed the glitterball winner in 8 years out of 9, the exception being Darren Gough in SCD3 who surprised everyone by turning over Colin Jackson and Zoe Ball.
In SCD6 forum favourite Tom Chambers was doomed by the 3-3-1 semis result into dance-off and elimination, but miraculously he was saved by a BBC technical loophole, then in the Final he and Camilla won by phone votes. In SCD7 Chris Hollins was the forum favourite against Ricky Whittle who was far ahead on judges marks. Once again this forum was right. In SCD8 Kara was this forum's red-hot preference, but bookies could not separate Kara and Matt Baker, with some making Matt favourite. Once again this forum was vindicated by a landslide. Come SCD9 Final the bookies are today betting: 1/3 Harry 11/4 Chelsee 16/1 Jason. In the absence of a 3-person poll the 5-person DS poll opened last Saturday night is showing the following support: 51% (217 votes) - Chelsee 36% (152 votes) - Harry 13% ( 56 votes) - Jason The size of the forum-against-bookies disagreement entering the Final is completely unprecedented. The last bookies 1/3 favourite was Alesha against Matt di Angelo, when Alesha was polling 68% in this forum, not 36% as Harry is doing. Who is right? |
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#2 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 3,751
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Being cautious by nature, I'd wait to see where the Holly & Artem and Alex & James fans cast their vote for the final poll but, you're right, the forum is overwhelmingly in favour of a Chelsee win.
I am convinced that we believe Harry will win but want Chelsee to do so - and that this viewpoint is echoed out there in the real world. I'm not saying Harry isn't popular - he is - but I think the eventual vote for Chelsee will surprise the bookies and that the result will be closer than they, or we, think. She might even do it...
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#3 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Earth dumbarse
Posts: 4,394
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Chelsee 190 47.38%
Harry 176 43.89% Jason 35 8.73% Voters: 401. You have already voted on this poll Overwhelming support for Chelsee? Looks like to me its neck and neck between Chelsee and Harry |
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#4 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,106
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It will be really interesting because according to this forum Jason wouldn't have reached the final. I think however that Chelsee will win.
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#5 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,829
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I've found that there are a lot of the public seem to find Harry and Chelsee on par with each other. I don't think a lot of people are sure who they want to support between them, so that final vote will come down to performances on Saturday and where the Alex/Holly/Jason (can't see him lasting) voters go in the last vote.
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#6 |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
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It will I think come down to the show dances on the night and then who the first elimination (if this happens to be Jason) votes are transferred to.
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#7 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 8,811
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Quote:
Being cautious by nature, I'd wait to see where the Holly & Artem and Alex & James fans cast their vote for the final poll but, you're right, the forum is overwhelmingly in favour of a Chelsee win.
I am convinced that we believe Harry will win but want Chelsee to do so - and that this viewpoint is echoed out there in the real world. I'm not saying Harry isn't popular - he is - but I think the eventual vote for Chelsee will surprise the bookies and that the result will be closer than they, or we, think. She might even do it... ![]() Most people I know have said Harry will win as he's hot or want his body but Chelsee is the better dancer at crunch point. It will be really interesting how it goes especially where those that have been eliminated will cast their votes (if they do). |
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#8 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 837
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My money (and therefor votes) is on Chelsee for the WIN. It will be close, but everything crossed she'll pull it off.......couldn't stand it if boring Harry would lift the trophy.....
Just my opinion...so don't shoot me )
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#9 |
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Quote:
I posted this on the other thread. http://www.betting-directory.com/spe...ncing-odds.php Some bookies feel Chelsee's odd aren't as reflective as how close they believe this race could be. They think Chelsee could win this off the dance floor for her personality & relationship with Pasha.
Most people I know have said Harry will win as he's hot or want his body but Chelsee is the better dancer at crunch point. It will be really interesting how it goes especially where those that have been eliminated will cast their votes (if they do). |
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#10 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 8,811
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Quote:
You also have to remember, bookies odds are based on the amount of money bet. So if more money is bet on Harry his odds will be shorter. Even if fewer people are actually betting on him.
he was joint favorite with Holly at the beginning his odds have stayed low. Harry was by far the safest bet going into this followed by Holly and Jason. People aren't voting as his odds don't offer much reward now. Also many people could have bet on both.
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#11 |
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Guest
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 6,073
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Quote:
Chelsee 190 47.38%
Harry 176 43.89% (have former Holly votes switched to Harry more than Chelsee?), Jason 35 8.73% Voters: 401. You have already voted on this poll Overwhelming support for Chelsee? Looks like to me its neck and neck between Chelsee and Harry 44% vs 47% -- for the forum, 1/3 vs 11/4 -- say the bookies, is still a very wide gulf. |
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#12 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Quote:
I posted this on the other thread. http://www.betting-directory.com/spe...ncing-odds.php Some bookies feel Chelsee's odd aren't as reflective as how close they believe this race could be. They think Chelsee could win this off the dance floor for her personality & relationship with Pasha.
Most people I know have said Harry will win as he's hot or want his body but Chelsee is the better dancer at crunch point. It will be really interesting how it goes especially where those that have been eliminated will cast their votes (if they do). but I notice from the link you posted that the same site was predicting on 29 November that the TOWIE guy would win I'm a Celebrity, while Dougie McFly had odds of 6/1. The final was less than a week later - ooh, much like the current situation! Erm, how do I put a bet on Chelsee to win?
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#13 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,829
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Quote:
I don't bet at all so have only a hazy grasp of how it all works
but I notice from the link you posted that the same site was predicting on 29 November that the TOWIE guy would win I'm a Celebrity, while Dougie McFly had odds of 6/1. The final was less than a week later - ooh, much like the current situation! Erm, how do I put a bet on Chelsee to win? ![]() |
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#14 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Quote:
Your poll "Who's gonna win?" was opened more recently and is more relevant. Surprisingly the Mods did not pin this to the top where the poll from Saturday night sits, so I never saw the new poll which keeps sinking down the page.
44% vs 47% for the forum, 1/3 vs 11/4 for the bookies, is still a very wide gulf. How many people selected Harry on the basis that they think he will win, rather than selecting Chelsee, who they might prefer to win? ETA: just read some of the posts in that thread and people are saying 'I think Harry will win, but want Chelsee to', or 'Harry will win so I won't bother voting', so I think we need a proper 'Who's your favourite?' poll to really test the waters. |
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#15 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 902
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I'm surprised we don't have a poll this year. I don't think the 'Who's gonna win?' one is entirely accurate since it's asking who you think is going to win rather than who you're voting for.
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#16 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 9,506
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Quote:
This might be splitting hairs, but the poll is titled 'Who's gonna win?', not 'Who's your favourite?', as previous polls have been.
How many people selected Harry on the basis that they think he will win, rather than selecting Chelsee, who they might prefer to win? ETA: just read some of the posts in that thread and people are saying 'I think Harry will win, but want Chelsee to', or 'Harry will win so I won't bother voting', so I think we need a proper 'Who's your favourite?' poll to really test the waters. |
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#17 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 12,792
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I don't believe Kara was ever as far ahead with the public as she was on here, likewise I don't believe Chelsee is as far ahead as this forum would put her, to the point where I'm not even convinced she's topping the public vote.
You can't just look at the raw figures of a poll without taking into account context, fanbase, possible vote transfer from eliminated contestants' supporters etc. I don't for a second believe the DS poll is anything but a lucky coincidence, as the vast majority of the voting public do not post on here. |
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#18 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 8,811
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Quote:
I don't bet at all so have only a hazy grasp of how it all works
but I notice from the link you posted that the same site was predicting on 29 November that the TOWIE guy would win I'm a Celebrity, while Dougie McFly had odds of 6/1. The final was less than a week later - ooh, much like the current situation! Erm, how do I put a bet on Chelsee to win? ![]() the article was written on the 29th on the 28th Mark won the public vote 20.91% Dougie 4th 12.71% (his lowest share of the series) . Mark was never out the top 3 the entire series. Dougie slipped to 4th and the bottom 2 after the 29th. Mark's lowest share was 18.51% and he still came second with that share
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#19 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,242
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Quote:
Bit of fun here
the article was written on the 29th on the 28th Mark won the public vote 20.91% Dougie 4th 12.71% (his lowest share of the series) . Mark was never out the top 3 the entire series. Dougie slipped to 4th and the bottom 2 after the 29th. Mark's lowest share was 18.51% and he still came second. ![]()
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#20 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 8,811
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Quote:
Are you a betting person?
![]() Not really just find the stats thing interesting
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#21 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 954
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Quote:
I don't believe Kara was ever as far ahead with the public as she was on here, likewise I don't believe Chelsee is as far ahead as this forum would put her, to the point where I'm not even convinced she's topping the public vote.
You can't just look at the raw figures of a poll without taking into account context, fanbase, possible vote transfer from eliminated contestants' supporters etc. I don't for a second believe the DS poll is anything but a lucky coincidence, as the vast majority of the voting public do not post on here. Everyone I've asked (both old and young, and none into DS forums) have said they support Harry. Chelsee doesn't even appear on their radar. |
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#22 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 15,643
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I shall be voting for Jason, but if as I expect he exits first then I shall put all my weight behind Chelsee, think she is by far the best dancer, i really hope that her support comes through for her.
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#23 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 90,778
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Quote:
I posted this on the other thread. http://www.betting-directory.com/spe...ncing-odds.php Some bookies feel Chelsee's odd aren't as reflective as how close they believe this race could be. They think Chelsee could win this off the dance floor for her personality & relationship with Pasha.
Most people I know have said Harry will win as he's hot or want his body but Chelsee is the better dancer at crunch point. It will be really interesting how it goes especially where those that have been eliminated will cast their votes (if they do). Quote:
You also have to remember, bookies odds are based on the amount of money bet. So if more money is bet on Harry his odds will be shorter. Even if fewer people are actually betting on him.
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#24 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,170
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Rather controversial I know, but I think the winner could be decided on whose routines are best. by choreography and performance on the night.
Chelsee and Harry are so close that the dancing could just decide it! |
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#25 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 14,104
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This is where I think Alex and Holly's votes will go:
Alex's votes -> Chelsee (votes for James will probs switch to Harry) Holly's votes -> Harry (this is based on Holly's personality, votes for Artem will probs switch to Chelsee) Depending on who goes out first: Jason's votes -> Chelsee Chelsee's votes -> Harry Harry's votes -> Chelsee That's just my guess though. I do think Chelsee is more likely to pick up the floating voters. |
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All times are GMT. The time now is 06:26.




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he was joint favorite with Holly at the beginning his odds have stayed low. Harry was by far the safest bet going into this followed by Holly and Jason. People aren't voting as his odds don't offer much reward now. Also many people could have bet on both.