Oldtimers can confirm that DS forum Favourite Poll coming into the Final has pinpointed the glitterball winner in 8 years out of 9, the exception being Darren Gough in SCD3 who surprised everyone by turning over Colin Jackson and Zoe Ball.

In SCD6 forum favourite Tom Chambers was doomed by the 3-3-1 semis result into dance-off and elimination, but miraculously he was saved by a BBC technical loophole, then in the Final he and Camilla won by phone votes.

In SCD7 Chris Hollins was the forum favourite against Ricky Whittle who was far ahead on judges marks. Once again this forum was right.

In SCD8 Kara was this forum's red-hot preference, but bookies could not separate Kara and Matt Baker, with some making Matt favourite. Once again this forum was vindicated by a landslide.

Come SCD9 Final the bookies are today betting:

1/3 Harry
11/4 Chelsee
16/1 Jason.

In the absence of a 3-person poll the 5-person DS poll opened last Saturday night is showing the following support:

51% (217 votes) - Chelsee
36% (152 votes) - Harry
13% ( 56 votes) - Jason

The size of the forum-against-bookies disagreement entering the Final is completely unprecedented. The last bookies 1/3 favourite was Alesha against Matt di Angelo, when Alesha was polling 68% in this forum, not 36% as Harry is doing.

Who is right?

Being cautious by nature, I'd wait to see where the Holly & Artem and Alex & James fans cast their vote for the final poll but, you're right, the forum is overwhelmingly in favour of a Chelsee win.

I am convinced that we believe Harry will win but want Chelsee to do so - and that this viewpoint is echoed out there in the real world. I'm not saying Harry isn't popular - he is - but I think the eventual vote for Chelsee will surprise the bookies and that the result will be closer than they, or we, think. She might even do it...

Chelsee 190 47.38%
Harry 176 43.89%
Jason 35 8.73%
Voters: 401. You have already voted on this poll

Overwhelming support for Chelsee? Looks like to me its neck and neck between Chelsee and Harry

It will be really interesting because according to this forum Jason wouldn't have reached the final. I think however that Chelsee will win.

I've found that there are a lot of the public seem to find Harry and Chelsee on par with each other. I don't think a lot of people are sure who they want to support between them, so that final vote will come down to performances on Saturday and where the Alex/Holly/Jason (can't see him lasting) voters go in the last vote.

It will I think come down to the show dances on the night and then who the first elimination (if this happens to be Jason) votes are transferred to.

I posted this on the other thread. http://www.betting-directory.com/spe...ncing-odds.php Some bookies feel Chelsee's odd aren't as reflective as how close they believe this race could be. They think Chelsee could win this off the dance floor for her personality & relationship with Pasha.

Most people I know have said Harry will win as he's hot or want his body but Chelsee is the better dancer at crunch point. It will be really interesting how it goes especially where those that have been eliminated will cast their votes (if they do).

My money (and therefor votes) is on Chelsee for the WIN. It will be close, but everything crossed she'll pull it off.......couldn't stand it if boring Harry would lift the trophy.....

Just my opinion...so don't shoot me )

You also have to remember, bookies odds are based on the amount of money bet. So if more money is bet on Harry his odds will be shorter. Even if fewer people are actually betting on him.

I understand that completely he was joint favorite with Holly at the beginning his odds have stayed low. Harry was by far the safest bet going into this followed by Holly and Jason. People aren't voting as his odds don't offer much reward now. Also many people could have bet on both.

Your poll "Who's gonna win?" was opened more recently and is more relevant. Surprisingly the Mods did not pin this to the top where the poll from Saturday night sits, so I never saw the new poll which keeps sinking down the page.

44% vs 47% -- for the forum,
1/3 vs 11/4 -- say the bookies,
is still a very wide gulf.

I don't bet at all so have only a hazy grasp of how it all works but I notice from the link you posted that the same site was predicting on 29 November that the TOWIE guy would win I'm a Celebrity, while Dougie McFly had odds of 6/1. The final was less than a week later - ooh, much like the current situation! Erm, how do I put a bet on Chelsee to win?

Difference is there was a show every night for I'm A Celeb! Dougie was at 14/1 on one site at one point, I noticed.

This might be splitting hairs, but the poll is titled 'Who's gonna win?', not 'Who's your favourite?', as previous polls have been.

How many people selected Harry on the basis that they think he will win, rather than selecting Chelsee, who they might prefer to win?

ETA: just read some of the posts in that thread and people are saying 'I think Harry will win, but want Chelsee to', or 'Harry will win so I won't bother voting', so I think we need a proper 'Who's your favourite?' poll to really test the waters.

I'm surprised we don't have a poll this year. I don't think the 'Who's gonna win?' one is entirely accurate since it's asking who you think is going to win rather than who you're voting for.

I agree - I voted Harry in that poll because it's asked 'who's going to win' and I believe Harry will, but if it was who do I want to win (and who I'm going to vote for) I would have given a different answer.

I don't believe Kara was ever as far ahead with the public as she was on here, likewise I don't believe Chelsee is as far ahead as this forum would put her, to the point where I'm not even convinced she's topping the public vote.

You can't just look at the raw figures of a poll without taking into account context, fanbase, possible vote transfer from eliminated contestants' supporters etc. I don't for a second believe the DS poll is anything but a lucky coincidence, as the vast majority of the voting public do not post on here.

Bit of fun here the article was written on the 29th on the 28th Mark won the public vote 20.91% Dougie 4th 12.71% (his lowest share of the series) . Mark was never out the top 3 the entire series. Dougie slipped to 4th and the bottom 2 after the 29th. Mark's lowest share was 18.51% and he still came second with that share

Are you a betting person?

Not really just find the stats thing interesting

Yes it's like a tale of two worlds.

Everyone I've asked (both old and young, and none into DS forums) have said they support Harry.

Chelsee doesn't even appear on their radar.

I shall be voting for Jason, but if as I expect he exits first then I shall put all my weight behind Chelsee, think she is by far the best dancer, i really hope that her support comes through for her.

Do bookies actually do that? Set odds based on their own feeling, rather than on the bets they've been receiving?


That's what I thought, but above we have seem to have a claim that some bookies set odds based on what they themselves feel and think will happen.

Rather controversial I know, but I think the winner could be decided on whose routines are best. by choreography and performance on the night.

Chelsee and Harry are so close that the dancing could just decide it!

This is where I think Alex and Holly's votes will go:

Alex's votes -> Chelsee (votes for James will probs switch to Harry)
Holly's votes -> Harry (this is based on Holly's personality, votes for Artem will probs switch to Chelsee)

Depending on who goes out first:

Jason's votes -> Chelsee
Chelsee's votes -> Harry
Harry's votes -> Chelsee

That's just my guess though. I do think Chelsee is more likely to pick up the floating voters.