|
||||||||
An unprecedented disagreement |
![]() |
|
|
|
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
|
|
#26 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 8,811
|
Quote:
Do bookies actually do that? Set odds based on their own feeling, rather than on the bets they've been receiving?
That's what I thought, but above we have seem to have a claim that some bookies set odds based on what they themselves feel and think will happen. Also Harry has always had short odds throughout it is very possible he had more money put on him in September than say the first week of December as a random example. Though he would stay with short odds it may not be as indicative that up to date betting is as confident. He is also the safest each way bet so would be interesting to see how they are reflected against out right win. |
|
|
|
|
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
|
|
|
#27 |
|
Guest
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 6,073
|
Quote:
Do bookies actually do that? Set odds based on their own feeling, rather than on the bets they've been receiving?
That's what I thought, but above we have seem to have a claim that some bookies set odds based on what they themselves feel and think will happen. Unfortunately for them bookies know horses but not dancing nor the finer points of the Strictly electorate. Come the day of the Final because of tabloid publicity, there will actually be £millions bet, spread thinly nationwide as small fun bets.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#28 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 486
|
Quote:
You also have to remember, bookies odds are based on the amount of money bet. So if more money is bet on Harry his odds will be shorter. Even if fewer people are actually betting on him.
I don't know a whole lot about this gambling business. Didn't even know until now that the odds depend on how much money has been bet on him. |
|
|
|
|
|
#29 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: North-West England
Posts: 25,847
|
Quote:
What do you mean "his odds will be shorter"?
I don't know a whole lot about this gambling business. Didn't even know until now that the odds depend on how much money has been bet on him. |
|
|
|
|
|
#30 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 90,778
|
Quote:
What do you mean "his odds will be shorter"?
I don't know a whole lot about this gambling business. Didn't even know until now that the odds depend on how much money has been bet on him. "Shorter" odds also mean that less money is paid out (by the bookie) to the people who bet that that thing would happen. (10 to 1 and the bookie pays £10 for each £1 bet, plus returning the amount bet. 5 to 1, the bookie pays only £5.) So ... if a lot of money is going on Harry to win (compared to the amount going on other contestants), the bookie will shorten the odds so that bookie wouldn't have to pay so much on later bets on Harry to win. (Both sides are stuck with the odds that were in force at the time the bet was made.) In other words, the bookie is reducing how much they will have at risk if Harry were to win. Remember that if Harry wins, the bookie loses all those bets but wins against everyone who bet that someone else would win. The aim is to set all of the odds so that the bookie comes out ahead no matter who wins SCD. |
|
|
|
|
|
#31 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Somewhere in the UK
Posts: 6,493
|
If someone (just one individual) places a single, very large bet then that immediately shortens the odds available to him/her and subsequent punters.
A bookie couldn't pay out (wouldn't want to/be able to) pay out 10/1 on a stake of £50,000. Large sums also suggest inside knowledge. |
|
|
|
|
|
#32 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 486
|
Quote:
The more money the bookies would lose on a bet if it came up, the progressively shorter would be the odds.
Quote:
"Shorter" means the outcome is more considered more likely; "longer" means less likely. So 10 to 1 is "longer" than 5 to 1. If odds are getting longer, they are "drifting".
"Shorter" odds also mean that less money is paid out (by the bookie) to the people who bet that that thing would happen. (10 to 1 and the bookie pays £10 for each £1 bet, plus returning the amount bet. 5 to 1, the bookie pays only £5.) So ... if a lot of money is going on Harry to win (compared to the amount going on other contestants), the bookie will shorten the odds so that bookie wouldn't have to pay so much on later bets on Harry to win. (Both sides are stuck with the odds that were in force at the time the bet was made.) In other words, the bookie is reducing how much they will have at risk if Harry were to win. Remember that if Harry wins, the bookie loses all those bets but wins against everyone who bet that someone else would win. The aim is to set all of the odds so that the bookie comes out ahead no matter who wins SCD. Quote:
If someone (just one individual) places a single, very large bet then that immediately shortens the odds available to him/her and subsequent punters.
A bookie couldn't pay out (wouldn't want to/be able to) pay out 10/1 on a stake of £50,000. Large sums also suggest inside knowledge.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#33 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 8,439
|
Probably one of the most interesting finals there has been, because it really is impossible to call.
It seems the majority this Jason will go out first - but who knows, he might not. For me, Harry is my winner; he's the best dancer technically, but being the best doesn't always win votes. Chelsee is close to Harry in technique, and has bonus of adding personality to her dancing. Presuming Jason does go out first, then the winner will be down to Aliona and Pasha, which one will present the best showdance? |
|
|
|
|
|
#34 |
|
Guest
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 6,073
|
Bookie prices are bonkers, but this forum does not appear to know its collective mind they way it did in every year past.
Following the semifinal there has not been one dickiebird comment on the departure of nice girl Alex. But not many posts on Harry and Chelsee either. It has all been about Holly Holly Holly, should she, should't she have made the Final. Postings about Jason were more often than not about how he put Holly out of the competition. Maybe the Final has lost its focus of attention, the most watched, most controversial celeb. |
|
|
|
|
|
#35 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Away with the faries
Posts: 27,378
|
I think Chelsee will win, but I think it is much harder to call since the producers changed the order of the dances in the final last year .
At the moment we know Harry and Aliona are dancing the American Smooth (not the Paso Doble) as their new dance and a rock and roll show dance. We also know that Chelsee's new dance is the Rumba (not the Viennese Waltz) and think Jason's new dance is the Salsa (not the Waltz). I don't know if the pros were allowed to choose their new dance or not, but I'd say Harry and Aliona are starting from a position of strength. So I think that this year more than ever, I think the show dances will make the difference about who the final two will be. remember as well that more people vote in the final than at any other time (this fact is usually announced by Bruce at some point in the show). I think DS will be right again about the winner. |
|
|
|
|
#36 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 377
|
Quote:
Bookmaking theory is to arrange liabilities of bets laid in such proportions that whatever the eventuality the bookie will show a profit -- a small profit. However bookies also have heavy overheads and suffer from recession, so if a bookie knew something for sure, e.g. one contestant out of two has been injured, then the greedy buggers will not restrain themselves from breaking rank to lay lopsided bets and benefit from specialist info. There are "safe" bookies and there are those who boldly go out on a limb to lay bets according to their own opinion -- if they know the subject.
Unfortunately for them bookies know horses but not dancing nor the finer points of the Strictly electorate. Come the day of the Final because of tabloid publicity, there will actually be £millions bet, spread thinly nationwide as small fun bets. ![]() |
|
|
|
|
|
#37 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 7,654
|
Quote:
This might be splitting hairs, but the poll is titled 'Who's gonna win?', not 'Who's your favourite?', as previous polls have been.
How many people selected Harry on the basis that they think he will win, rather than selecting Chelsee, who they might prefer to win? ETA: just read some of the posts in that thread and people are saying 'I think Harry will win, but want Chelsee to', or 'Harry will win so I won't bother voting', so I think we need a proper 'Who's your favourite?' poll to really test the waters. |
|
|
|
|
|
#38 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 12,792
|
Quote:
Presuming Jason does go out first, then the winner will be down to Aliona and Pasha, which one will present the best showdance?
|
|
|
|
|
|
#39 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 906
|
Quote:
I shall be voting for Jason, but if as I expect he exits first then I shall put all my weight behind Chelsee, think she is by far the best dancer, i really hope that her support comes through for her.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#40 |
|
Guest
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 6,073
|
Quote:
Harry's ability to perform has improved so much in the final stages of the competition.
Male celebs usually start with low marks in week 1 and improve. Top women celebs generally start from marks over 30 and stay there. Harry: 28 cha cha, 33 jive, 27 foxtrot, 35 waltz, 34 tango, 33 samba, 37 AT, 34 Salsa, 39 quickstep, 36 rumba, 39 charlston, 39 VW 421 total. Chelsee: 27 waltz, 29 salsa, 30 cha cha, 36 quickstep, 32 tango, 36 charlston, 36 foxtrot, 35 salsa, 35 AT, 39 jive, 36 AS, 40 paso 417 total. |
|
|
|
|
|
#41 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 686
|
Gamblers rarely win, bookies usually do
|
|
|
|
![]() |
|
|
All times are GMT. The time now is 06:26.



