Tom was always going to win; the semi final fiasco just gave him momentum that wasn't required. Part of me thinks the BBC created the fiasco in order to save him because there would've been uproar had he been voted out in the dance off (people would've assumed he topped the vote even without proof)...but surely they wouldn't have made such a mess of it if that was the case?

What the showdnace did IMO was 'save the series'. There was a nasty taste throughout the final because of what happened in the semi final but the showdance was arguably the strongest dance of the night and at least supplied some evidence to many that Tom was their on merit as well as on a technicality.

Must just add - everyone keeps saying that Tom won it with his howdance I think not although it was amazing.
This was the year that a newspaper printed how the voting was going - John Sargeant was topping the vote with Tom topping it in second place. Once John S left it was obviously Tom leading the vote plus he was never in the dance off like Rachel and Lisa.

I liked Tom's dancing and personality and saw him in a show "Top Hat" this year and his dancing was amazing.

Top Hat was great and it was nice to see someone put to good use what they had learnt on Strictly. I always felt Tom held his own in the dancing stakes with Rachel and Lisa that year. Probably more capable but at the same time more prone to mistakes.

I also remember the voting stats in the paper. Seemed clear that Tom would win after that and I sure that if he didn't have such a lead the BBC wouldn't have put them all through in the semi. Of course it was having a dance off when they were down to the final three that was the problem then, same with the previous year. Did mean that viewers favourite to win (Tom, possibly Gethin) didn't necessarily get through to the final.

As a man I tend to be drawn more to the celeb male/pro female partnerships. I identify more with the man who can't dance and am attracted more to the female dancers than the female celebrities so I am not convinced by the arguement that the male celeb is more likely to win because of the female vote. Not in a programme where there is a man and a woman in each team and in Strictly in particular where the pro's have quite a high profile.

The male pro's have a strong support and it is clear that an element of Chelsee's vote is down to Pasha and this is just on here, from people who seem a lot more concerned on voting for the dancing than general viewers, some of which are perhaps less passionate about the subject.

My view has always been that the good female celeb's lose out because they are more likely to become the judges pet. I'm sure Zoe, Emma, Lisa and Ali in particular have suffered because of this. Overmarked and overpraised the public rebels and votes for someone else.

I can clearly remember Erin critising a 10 given to Zoe, Kelly getting a 10 from Bruno when Brendan had put in an illegal (or maybe an extra) lift, Ali being marked high in a group dance, which surprised some of the other pro's, Karen and Flavia both remarking on it, I think. Something to do with encroaching on other dancers floor space I believe.

I don't see any undue favourtism by the judges to Chelsee this year and in my opinion that's the difference and that's why she still has a chance.

It was the same last year with Kara. They praised her, of course, she was brilliant, but nothing that appeared unfair and she then went on to win, against a very good male celeb.

Anyway that's my thoughts, hell, I seem to have written an essay!
Hope it makes some sort of sense. Going back to lurker mode now.

Jethryk - I agree 100% with your reasoning over the judges' pet femal celebs...... you would think that if the panel were

a. impartial (judging everyone by the same rules) and
b. objective (not ignoring one person's error while clobbering another for the same mistake)

They would be far more likely to get the result they want..... all the judges pet syndrome does is get the voters backs up and makes them vote for anyone except the perceived judges' pet.

That said - the only judges pet who actually DESERVED to win was Zoe.... she was excellent from the very beginning she and Colin were the top 2 dancers of their series, and had the judges been marginally less blind to the few mistakes she made, she could well have been more popular than she was..... Emma, Lisa and Ali were all over rated by the judges in comparison to the eventual winners of their series.

Jethryk and CarolUK - both spot on. I am a non ovary voter and tend to vote for those who convey to me the love of what they are doing best.

So far I have voted 50/50 male/female (only started really watching in the Alesha year).
Like many others at the start of the series I thought Chelsee was a bit of a chav and had never heard of her as I am not a Waterloo Road watcher. However, she started dancing and has improved and grown each week. Her ditzy personality comes through along with her insecurities and she seems to have a properly close pupil/teacher relationship with Pasha. I get a tingly feeling watching them dance, escaping into the music and dance along with them.

Harry on the other hand has always seemed "nice" and I was cross Aliona was not letting him dance more steps. Now even though his content is greater most of it is in "in hold" dances & he still seems very bland to me. So nothing to inspire or motivate me to vote. Almost a male version of Ali or Rachel (just the way I see him, so only a personal opinion).

The only other person I voted for this year was Audley.

Except for Zoe Ball (or was she closely matched with Colin Jackson in forum polls? Either way she was substantially ahead of Darren Gough).

£3 invested on Harry--- at the bookies will win the punter £1.
£3 invested on Chelsee at the bookies will win the punter £9.

Hence the bookies are saying Harry is 9 times as likely to win as Chelsee.
This morning DS poll says Chelsee is 2 times as likely to win as Harry .

See, I don't trust the poll because I voted for who I wanted to win - which is Chelsee - rather than who I thought would win - which is Harry. Others may have done the same.

TBH this is the first year I genuinely remember feeling totally apathetic about who wins. In all other years there has always been someone I liked more than the other contestant(s). Harry and Chelsee are both great dancers but I don't like either more than the other. Jason I like a bit more than either but don't think his dancing deserves it.

This is one woman who won't be voting any way

In General Elections voter apathy or rain adding up to low turnout is believed to translate into an advantage for Tories over Labour, as it is believed that Tory supporters have marginally better access to car transport in going to the polls.

In Strictly apathy could possibly translate into a reduction of multiple voting. If so then fanatical supporters will play a lesser role and casual single-voting viewers will assert the strength of their numbers. DS forum would probably better represent fanatical supporters (50 votes at a time) while a Mori poll would better represent casual viewers.

Is SCD9 the most apathetic disconnected season ever? Forum postings suggest so. If true then a new ingredient has come into prominence this year -- those who mildly want something to happen, like Lorelie, will not bother to dial to make it happen, i.e. the DS poll may not translate into the phone poll.

Have to say I disagree. These forums often (I'm tempted to say always but I don't have the impressive memory of some people on here) support women celebs much more than the general voting does. I think that what would count as 'dull' in some dancers counts as 'nice' in a boy like Harry and doesn't seem to be a problem for him at all.

On the wider topic, I think there are loads of reasons why Harry is likely to win on Saturday outside his technical skill in dancing, including being southern English, middle class, the most traditionally 'good-looking' of the three, only pro partner who has experience of the final, able to avoid Latin in the final, best press coverage, most famous friends in the audience (now Holly is gone), boosted by Dougie winning, etc, etc, etc. I think his gender is one thing on the list. And all that is only added to the fact that he's very, very good at dancing and very error-free. If he was the 'nice handsome middle class white boy' package and was clearly less good than Chelsee and Jason, then it would be a hard thing to call. But, even though I prefer Chelsee, that's just personal taste - I don't think either of the other 2 are objectively blatently better than Harry. And I think Chelsee would have to be head and shoulders above Harry in the dancing to outweigh all the other factors.

jtnorth is usually fairminded.

In this instance I believe one angle has been overlooked. This is not just a race between two presidential candidates. Last year involved a contest between two pro dancers: Artem and Aliona. This year again Aliona, but against new boy Pasha. In the separate Pro Dancer Poll Pasha is astonishingly joint-leader with Artem, but with 3.5 times as many votes than Aliona or Kristina.

Whereas two presidential candidates are more or less level, it is far far from the case with the two would-be vice presidents. Kristina is rather irrelevant because Jason is, but Aliona has a lot of baggage and past controversies to overcome. Those who want to vote for a male can look at Pasha and vote Chelsee.

Mm. That I can't tell. I'm never sure if people vote for the pro. I just always think of how loved Matthew Cutler was with Alesha and then I think went out first the year after (apologies if that's me remembering wrongly). For what it's worth, I watch Chelsee when she's dancing and only notice how good Pasha is in the pro dances.

I hope my previous post wasn't unfair to Harry. I am biased - I am definitely a Chelsee fan. But I won't think it's unfair if Harry wins, just that the majority disagree with me. (Which I'm used to - my favourite has only won once in all the years I've watched the show. This is the first time in years my favourite's made it to the final.)

I really don't think that's particularly relevant. Only the hardcore fans care about the pro dancers, it's sad but true. there have been various stories on here of public polls where only really Anton and Brendan can be remembered by much of the public. I doubt many causal voters would know Pasha, Kristina or Aliona's names, nor care too much about whether their choreography was traditional, modern or even within the rules.

I love the way nearly everyone is dismissing Jason as the 3rd place without seeing him perform on the night!

His Quickstep and Tango from past programmes were both brilliant (wasn't he top of the leaderboard with both of them???) and his showdance looks good from the training clip last night.... the only one I worry about is his Salsa - Cha Cha apart, his latin has been a bit Meh! (such a shame about that jive at Wembley though!)

If I was voting (and I can't because the landline is blocked for premium rate numbers and I refuse to pay mobile rates for something like this...) - I would be chucking seveeral votes Jason and Kristina's way. I think he has worked the hardest of the final 3 and he has delivered the most entertaining (IMHO anyway) routines all the way through.

Chelsee and Harry are both good as well - and for once I don't actually care who wins this series. They are all good, and all deserving of the glitter ball - although as she has been landed with such duffers for the 3 previous series - I would love to see Kristina take it!!

The Swiss Miss went out in week 1 when nobody was focusing on her or Matthew. If anybody twigged that Matthew was in danger of elimination I believe an entire army of supporters would have mobilised. Strictly audience does not have great synergy with the summer game of tennis, and the Swiss Miss was known to be temperamental, and never an outstanding tennis champion. Above all she was Swiss and not English with a local fanbase like East Enders actresses or The One Show. The Swiss eviction in round 1 was like a sucker punch a heavyweight boxer did not see coming.

By contrast the following year the Welsh boxer was terrible from start to finish, but his pairing with popular Kristina protected him for quite a few weeks. I believe it fair to say that without Ola Chops Chris Hollins would never have won the glitterball (with only one dance in his repertoire, the charleston, the rest of the time he danced constipated). Tom was well paired with Camilla, both of them thin and floating all over the place. Pasha has been rather shrewd in emphasising Chelsee's youth and fast reactions, e.g. in the jive. Russell was helped by Flavia.

On the other side of the coin, Pamela was not helped in public popularity for being tied to James?

Makes me think, if Jason is with Aliona and Kristina with Harry, what would have happened? I suspect Jason would suffer under Aliona and not even make it to the semi finals, while Kristina will be going to town with Harry and may have several really excellent content-rich dances to remember by!

True, he shouldn't be ignored. I think it's easy to make a case for Jason beating Chelsee and coming second. Whenever we've had a final with 2 men and 1 woman, since this thread is about looking at patterns, the woman has come third - Zoe, Emma and Ali. Jason is much, much better known than Chelsee, his hard work is admired, he's had more support from guests on ITT, and, back on topic, he is a man. But he's been in the b2, it's tough to be the top of the leaderboard from the beginning, and he's the only one of the three I've seen get negative press, so I think Chelsee has a chance of being second as well. As with Chelsee, I think Jason would have to dance clearly, unarguably better than Harry to win, while I think Harry only as to be as good as Chelsee and Jason.

Since this thread is openly politically incorrect and sexist, might as well go the whole hog and inquire if it is relevant to be ageist.
There has never been a glitterball winner as old as Jason. How old was Darren Gough?

Cherie was admirable, but she was old at 56. Pamela was thrown around like a teenager, but on her passport she was 60yo. For many voters that was "no dice"?

Chelsee although older, gives the impression of Luisa, and reminds voters of Matt di Angelo.
Harry, not showing impulsiveness or rebellion much, is probably perceived as older than he is.

Yes, Jason may well finish ahead of Chelsee.

He's also the only finalist doing an old world showdance (similar to Tom Chambers?) which would appeal to older voters.

Moreover, if you compare the YT viewing figures for their much lauded perfect 40 semifinal dances, Jason's AT with 29,000+ views trounces Chelsee's PD with 18,000+ views.

I've also pointed out in another thread about YT stats that Chelsee and Jason appear to share the same fanbase, except that Jason has an additional fangroup of females aged 54-64.

It was all down to David Attenborough, repeatedly checking up on Kristina the Tigress.

Neither of them got to the final in the first place

You see this is why I shouldn't post. They weren't third? I remember it Mark, Matt, Emma, and Chris, Ricky, Ali. Oh, well ignore me.

Really? Do you think this picture will gain him even more voters on Saturday?

In Emma's year Tarbuck dropped out so she got to the Semi's in Chris' year Jade Johnson pulled out so a two person finals they never did showdances etc. We've not had this configuration in the final proper since Series 3

Do you think these pictures will gain Chelsee more voters on Saturday?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...y+Come+Dancing

Whether 3 celebs were whittled down to one winner over one Saturday or two is probably immaterial. The point made was that it was not safe to be one woman among two men -- not only out but out first (Zoe, Emma, Ali), unless you are Alesha with 30 marks in hand and thus fire-proof. Even in a woman/woman/man configuration a woman went out first (Kara/Pamela/Matt). No, it's not safe to be a woman on Strictly, unless you are Kara or Alesha or Jill.

Chelsee is facing the same configuration, but she has the protection of Pasha who as current joint leader in the Most Popular Pro poll is a big vote-getter in his own right.