Originally Posted by
Score:
“Just want to say merry Christmas to everyone on this thread, and thanks to all who provide data and to everyone who contributes to the thread for making it what it is. 
Also, I'm armed and ready with my stopwatch for Christmas.
The Cube will be tapechecked significantly as it ended 8 minutes early at 19:22, so the last 10 minutes will be chopped off. Also, as it's Christmas, some predictions:
Narnia: 5.7m
Merlin: 6.7m
EastEnders: 8.8m
Outnumbered: 7.0m
Lapland: 5.2m
The Cube: 3.4m
Text Santa: 3.2m
Piers Morgan: 2.9m
Hairspray: 3.0m
If Text Santa could only get 4m with an X Factor lead-in, it won't do well tonight, especially with tougher competition. The Cube struggles away from XF and Piers won't benefit from the low lead-in, and it's not really a 'special' enough show for Christmas Eve.”
One thing in Text Santa's favour is BBC1's lazy film repeat-repeat taking up all of their early evening schedule. As TV viewing increases post 7pm/7.30pm what are people going to tune into - the last hour of a kids' film that's been on umpteen times, or find something else?
For anyone switching the telly on around now, then Text Santa seems to be the obvious choice at least till Merlin starts. At the moment it is basically A&D's Saturday Night Takeaway with another name, and that will capture viewers surely?
I think it will do miles better than the one with the TXF lead in, because people wanting an alternative to BBC1's early evening family fantasy line up could land on the Text Santa easy light entertainment offering by default.
I think it will do much better than people expect - nothing spectacular over 2.5 hrs average, but it could be getting around 5-6m round about now I suspect, and should certainly be in front at this point in the evening.
But from 8pm, and certainly from 8.45pm, the night belongs to BBC1.
My predictions:
Narnia: 4.5m
Merlin: 6.5m
EastEnders: 8.5m
Outnumbered: 6.5m
Lapland: 4.5m
The Cube: 4.5m
Text Santa: 5m
Piers Morgan: 3m