GeorgeS hasnt been online since 12.34pm, so he must be getting force fed non-ITV television against his will somewhere.

An enjoyable evening of TV, our viewing has been

Family Fortunes
Corrie
Alan Carr
Ab Fab
Michael Macintyre

I highly doubt any other channel has had a look in tonight (though Coronation Street and Downton Abbey should have held up relatively well) but BBC One has put forward a family friendly - well until 9pm - eclectic schedule so it deserves it.

As for last night; BBC One had a brilliant night though EastEnders seems slightly low but I'm sure it'll get a Christmas night boost. Lapland performed excellently considering it's late start time and Outnumbered recorded a fantastic figure. Merlin did well but seems slightly on the low side for me considering what it pulled in previously. ITV1 will be pleased that they didn't disgrace themselves with Text Santa holding up and The Cube picking up a decent number of viewers. 'Poor' Piers Morgan crashed though! BBC Two had a very good night with the old comedies; Greatest Christmas TV Moments did very well for Channel Five considering it was a three hour repeat but Channel 4 had a quiet night despite airing Hairspray and Home For the Holidays, which didn't light up the ratings board.

I haven't watched anything on the BBC tonight.


Thought it was about time someone said it

For context purposes someone needs to be post last year's ratings as a reminder, as until recently the point of airing Downton was supposed to be so ITV could hold up better than usual, unlike now where due to Robbie mentioning it every 5 mins it seems anything other than a 10m victory would be seen as a flop.

I expect many stuck with BBC1 most of the day as always, the low predictions for the 3:10pm to 7pm programming on BBC1 earlier seem unlikely, the animations usually get high ratings.

In my house it was ITV1 from about 8am to Morecambe & Wise time (my dad generally wants to avoid the religious stuff and didn't want to watch Breakfast unlike the 364 other days of the year when he generally does), then on BBC1 in the foreground and background until 5pm (including the annual TOTP conversations 'who's that? who sings that? etc), then ITV1 until 11pm (due to my mum watching the 2 ITV soaps and Downton and nobody really watching AbFab, EE or SCD here). I did however watch MMCR upstairs from 10:35pm.

yeah I saw it, it's absolutely hilarious
It's a pity BBC didn't put it on after Ab Fab., hopefully it does well tomorrow. Hopefully 6m!

I watched the Beeb all day, great line-up
switched to RTE for MBB and then back to the Beeb for M.Mc I.

I'm certainly no granny and I thought Downton was great - it was oozing with quality.

It will have lost to EastEnders of course. Can't call the outcome for the rest of the night really, could have gone either way. We shall soon find out...

I'm sure Downton had more viewers than EE. I see no reason why it would be beaten by EE. It's extremely popular at the moment.

If DA is beaten by EE I think that will be embarrassing for them as EE has been quite patchy of late.

No elderly relatives in our house so we watched EE and while it was a good episode, it wasn't the most dramatic xmas episode I've ever seen. I imagine some viewers who hadn't followed the Masood storyline would have got bored and turned over. Another reason DA should win the battle comfortably.

I'm sure ITV will be pleased with beating EE but if they had aired the DA special on another night/against weaker competition it could have got its highest ever rating.


Downton Abbey is a soap itself.

So ITV airing four hours of soap in one evening. That's a record even for them.

But DA is just as popular as if not more popular than EE. It's one of the highest rated shows on at the moment. I haven't seen anyone from ITV say their aim is just to "hold up better than usual" - DA on Xmas Day was a clear spoiler tactic and one ITV will be hoping has worked.

Why is everyone so convinced EE will outrate DA. Is it deliberate underpredictions so they can then remark on how rubbish EE did?

The recent form of both shows suggests DA should easily come out on top. But both will be lower than their potential (against easier competition) so no real winner.

Shush, stop breaking the board stereotypes - they are all right you know? The elderly all watched Downton; the young all watched EastEnders.

I can't believe people are writing off EastEnders, though...it always does well on Christmas Day however 'patchy' it's been in the run up. I won't be at all surprised if it wins the hour.

BTW, a soap opera is "is an ongoing, episodic work of dramatic fiction presented in serial format on radio or as television programming." Considering Downton will not appear again until next autumn I'm not sure how it can be classed as a soap. Looking at the average running time the BBC air more soaps (Doctors 5x30, EastEnders 4x30, Casualty 1x50, Holby City 1x60 - on average 390 minutes per week) compared to ITV1 (Coronation Street 5x30 and Emmerdale 6x30 - on average 320 minutes per week).

For all the arguments of spoiler tactics, ITV1 left the 7pm hour clear in an attempt to lure EastEnders there so it didn't clash with Downton Abbey. The thing is EastEnders ALWAYS rates well on Christmas Day, no matter the opposition. It's one of the highlights of a British Christmas; a stalwart which probably won't leave us until the programme is axed entirely. People who never tune in for the rest of the year give it a go on Christmas Day as they know a huge storyline will commence or reach it's peak - that's how EastEnders does things. And because EastEnders does appeal to a younger demographic there will be more debate online; at work tomorrow (for those who have to work), between friends than Downton, which appeals to an older demographic - that debate will result in people watching the show 'live' and catching up on Downton (if at all) at a later date.

Downton could well beat EastEnders, I'm not denying it. But EastEnders is not in as weak a position as it would be any other night as the Christmas Day episode is something special for many.

It's not really underpredictions - the fact of the matter is, that in the past, there have been ITV1 programmes that have aired on Christmas Day which at the time were just as (or almost as) popular as EastEnders normally (i.e. Millionaire at its peak, A Touch of Frost, Doc Martin, Dancing on Ice) but all have been beaten, some quite comfortably, when it's come to their Christmas Day episodes. Christmas Day TV is a different beast to 99% of other days in the year so you shouldn't assume that just because a certain programme is more popular normally, it'll win out on Christmas Day. If that was the case, Corrie would win Christmas Day most of the time as most days of the year it's the most popular soap (in first-showing overnights) - of course, in reality, it rarely comes out on top on Christmas Day.

Let me explain why I personally think EastEnders will beat DA in the overnight ratings battle (this is a cut and paste of what I posted on the Soap Ratings Thread a few days ago, so apologies if you've read it already): there has been a common pattern every single year that ITV1 programmes - including Corrie and Emmerdale - rate lower on Xmas Day than other days of the year. Normally the soaps on ITV1 rate about 10-25% lower than usual on Christmas Day, whilst non-soaps have rated as much as 25-40% lower than normal. This is something which has happened year after year for the last decade. There is little reason to believe, despite all the hype, that Downton Abbey will buck the trend - granted, it probably won't drop as much as previous Xmas Day dramas but there will be some kind of dip, it's sort of inevitable.

DA averaged 9.2m in the overnights for its most recent series just gone by - against mainly c4m opposition (including 2.8m opposition for the 10.5m-rated episode). Even if we assume that somehow DA will not rate any lower than usual on Christmas Day (i.e. get 9.2m) even though it's facing doubley-hard c8-10m opposition, it would still probably just be pipped by EastEnders which in recent years has experienced a 10-20% rise on Xmas Day compared to its highest rated episode a few days' beforehand (it was even up as much as 40% in 2007). This year, I expect EE to rate more like 5-10% higher than its highest rated episode beforehand (the 8.8m which it got on Monday a few days ago) since it's facing tougher competition than normal, but that would still be enough for EE to edge past DA, even if DA rates as it normally does. But I think DA will rate lower than 9.2m anyway, by about -15% (which is being quite conservative IMO - in previous years programmes have dropped more than that), which ought to be enough for 'Enders to beat DA by at least 1m in the overnights, I should think.

The thing is: BBC1 programmes on Christmas Day tend to rate about 20% higher than normal, whilst ITV1 programmes tend to rate about 20% lower than normal. So there's a 40% swing towards the BBC, meaning that for an ITV1 programme to win head-to-head it has to be millions more popular than its competition. Whilst Downton Abbey is undoubtedly extremely popular, it's not "millions" more popular than EastEnders, and that's why I can't see it winning. 11-12 years ago, ITV1 aired Who Wants to Be A Millionaire on Christmas Day, a show which at the time was the biggest thing on television, getting 15m+ viewers for regular episodes, yet its ratings dropped by a fifth on Christmas Day to about 12m and was beaten by BBC1. I can see the same sort of thing happening with DA too, although to a slightly lesser extent.

So my rough predictions (to the nearest half a million) for Christmas Day are:
Overnights: EastEnders: 9.5m, Downton Abbey: 7.5m (exc +1)
Officials: EastEnders: 11.0m, Downton Abbey: 10.0m (exc +1)

Downton might be 0.5m closer with +1 included. But I do think it makes sense that EE is being tipped by most people and the bookies to come out on top, especially in the overnights. The consolidated results will be a closer run thing though, that's for sure. Will ITV be "embarrassed" if DA loses out to EE? I very much doubt it. Will they be disappointed? Hmm...maybe a little bit.


Absolutely, Downton isn't a "soap opera". It's a drama series, which runs for 8 weeks in the entire year, that just happens to have a few "soap-like" elements such as relationships, an ensemble cast, etc. Doesn't make it a proper "soap" though.

It only takes 2000 mentions to trend. And it doesn't always mean big ratings.

Two things I liked about Christmas Day is seeing the Sherlock and Titanic trailers on TV.

IMO DA is a soap it just doesn't run all year round. Similarly I would class Waterloo Road as a soap as well.

I mean using your logic we could say Casualty isn't a soap since it takes a break between series.

Downton also was longer at two hours and so its average is bound to slightly lower compared to when its 75 minutes, I'm still expecting 7-8m, think casual viewers will record it and watch EE.

Even at 7m, it'll be an huge improvement on what ITV1 gets on Christmas Day but I think it would be bigger if it was on Boxing Day against the two comedies on BBC One.

Casualty runs for 40+ weeks a year; Downton ran for 8 in series two. IIRC, Waterloo Road had a 20 week series split in two last time round. There's a massive difference between 40+ weeks and 20; let alone 8!

TBH, if we're including Downton and Waterloo Road we'll have to include every drama where there's reoccuring characters - Doctor Who maybe, as the last series consisted of a pregnancy and potential who's the daddy storyline?

Christmas Day 2010 Overnight Ratings
BBC One (inc. HD)
15:10- Shrek the Third: 7.2m (41.9%)
16:30- The Gruffalo: 5.8m (31.7%)
17:10- The One Ronnie: 7.9m (37.3%)
18:00- Doctor Who: 10.3m (39.8%)
19:00- Strictly Come Dancing Christmas Special: 9.4m (34.4%)
20:00- EastEnders: 11.4m (43.2%)
21:00- The Royle Family: 9.9m (38.6%)
22:00- Come Fly with Me: 10.3m (41.1%)
22:30- BBC News: 7.2m (31.3%)
22:50- Starsky & Hutch: 2.4m (16.1%)
00:25- A Fish Called Wanda: 0.6m (10.8%)

ITV1 (inc. HD)
15:10- The Grinch: 2.0m (11.4%)
17:00- ITV News and Weather: 2.9m (15.2%)
17:15- You’ve Been Framed! at Christmas: 4.4m (20.6%)
18:00- Emmerdale: 7.2m (27.9%)
19:00- Coronation Street: 9.0m (33.1%)
20:00- All Star Family Fortunes: 4.7m (17.8%)
21:00- Agatha Christie’s Poirot: 4.2m (17.3%)
23:00- ITV News and Weather: 2.9m (15.6%)
23:15- You, Me and Dupree: 0.8m ( 7.9%)

Downton Abbey will surely almost double Poirot's 2010 rating, BBC1 share will be lower I feel, though the 2 animated films and Gruffalo's Child ought rate well. Eastenders will be down 1.5m+, can see ITV1 6pm-9pm being comparable with 2010. I can see SCD being up on 2010. Based on a year ago, ITV1 will be better off and BBC1 will be down a couple of percentage points.

Corden and Jones all but confirmed its return for a one off special on Ruth's Christmas Cracker during the week. I assume they will find time during the course of the year to get something in the can for next Christmas. As long as the Beeb keep a close eye on them and make sure they have actually put pen to paper by November.....


Not seen EastEnders or Doctor Who (other than brief snippets) but SCD, AbFab and McIntyre were all fantastic fun festive fare and it would be a travesty if the viewing millions who don't want heavy going starchy period drama didn't vote with their remotes for BBC1's cracking Christmas line up, and PVR Downton if they so wish to see what all the fuss and hype was about.

AbFab was packed with far more funny gags than anyone could reasonably have expected, and the Comedy Roadshow was hilarious - and such a shame that they didn't give him the extra few minutes he wanted, as it did feel rather crammed in, with guest spots running to 4 or 5 minutes.

I'm sure ITV has catered well for elderly Middle Englanders tonight with their Downton bonus, but for ordinary extended families the length and breadth of the nation - was 2 hours of soap plus 2 hours of probably fairly grim period soapy drama what they wanted for Christmas Night fun and entertainment.

To hell with the overnights really - BBC1 got it right tonight for a Christmas Day line up whatever the numbers tomorrow say; if the overnights hail Downton as winner of the day, then so be it. The Beeb filled the Royle Family sized hole in the schedule admirably.


No, not down to me. Peter Fincham, ITV's boss man himself, interviewed in The Times just the other week pulled no punches - Downton was put there for one reason, to win the night for ITV and to beat the BBC. No spin, no "suicidal scheduling" just for the kudos of offering a festive DA on the day itself. It was put there to win. That's the context we need for the morning.



The problem with that proposition is that the usual opposition against which EE "always rates well" is often Poirot or some other "kept on the shelf" period plodder held back as Christmas filler. The most heavily hyped episode of the most heavily hyped show of the year is not in that category at all.

I also think the 7pm "gap" wasn't so much for EE, I think ITV knew in the absence of the Royles the Beeb would have little option but to air an hour of EE against DA - instead I think it was to break up their "big hitters", as 4 successive hours of Em, CS and DA would have been a big ask for many of their core demographic. I think ASFF served as the interval - knowing full well that a big chunk of the ITV core audience would quite happily have sat through a Benidorm vs TOWIE cheap and tatty celebrity quiz whilst waiting for the second soap "fix" of their Christmas Day.

Regular readers may be interested to know that I did PVR Downton tonight, and watched it when I got back from my folks.

OK, not all of it - just ran the last few minutes to see what time it finished (11.00pm on the dot since you ask) and to check out this heavily hyped Titanic trailer, which oddly seemed to have been trailed as one of ITV's key festive highlights in itself.

The trailer was a bit of a let down - it just looked like a carbon copy of the 1997 movie epic, but whereas that managed to cram the story into a svelte 3 hours (), ITV's remake needs 4 hours!

I'm tempted to ask - what exactly is the point? Don't they realise everyone has seen Titanic (the movie) in the past 15 years, possibly more than once, and will be measuring it against that film - if they can be bothered to watch in the first place.

Either way, important thing to note is DA finished at 11pm dead. So its reported overnights tomorrow will presumably (?) include the 5 minutes of trailers and ads - which may prove rather helpful...

Final thought from me, but will ITV have billed their Titanic trailer as a programme in itself, to try and sneak another entry into the festive top 10?

As they seemed to want to build it up as an event in itself (even trailing the trail!), they might view this as significant enough...

I'm sure James and Ruth could do it, OMTG is a 16 week run from April so I think if they can get together during that time when James isn't performing, it should work out. Wonder if it'll be an hour or half an hour special?

I think BBC One could cope if Royle Family didn't return in 2012, they'll have Miranda, Mrs Brown's Boys and if Jennifer Saunders want to, another Ab Fab special. I still want to see Men Behaving Badly back for a one-off special but they won't do without Caroline Quentin.

It won't happen but it would be nice if the BBC could continue the Dickens bicentenary with a three part A Christmas Carol or a Christmas Upstairs Downstairs.

Pretty much how I felt watching the trailer online earlier (which by the way was preceded by a commercial!). I may well end up watching this one anyway but the more I see of it the more I think it's probably going to be one of those shows that didn't need to be made. That's not to say it won't be very well made for a TV drama and rate well as it probably will. But what purpose is it serving to mark the 100 years that a repeat of the film that's only 14 years old couldn't?

The film's getting a 3D rerelease in cinemas, the drama will rate well for ITV1. There's going to a lot of Titanic related documentaries so people may be Titaniced out by the time it's shown.

Hope no-one minds me copying over the Christmas Day average predictions from the DSRPG. With 34 predictions I find it's a pretty good guide on what people are expecting (minus the usual spin )

DSRPG Predictions

BBC One
The Queen (incl. ITV1) - 8.7m
Ratatouille - 6.7m
The Gruffalo's Child - 7.7m
Doctor Who - 10.2m
EastEnders - 9.5m
Absolutely Fabulous - 6.6m
Comedy Roadshow - 5.3m

ITV1
Emmerdale - 6.9m
Coronation Street - 8.6m
Downton Abbey - 8.5m

All looks rather feasible. The only one that strikes me is Ab Fab which seems to have gone down rather well tonight. I was expecting it to be slated like many (or indeed, most) sitcom comeback's are, but there seemed a lot of anticipation on social networks and the reviews are moderately positive. With an EE lead-in and what I imagine is a rather small Downton crossover audience, I could easily see it topping that prediction substantially.

I hope you all had a Merry Christmas!