apart from the 25th of course. and they are competitive all next week also.

The 25th, the day you have predicted 9.5m for EE and 8-9m for Downton?

Not sure if Potter will do quite that well. It was screened in a very similar Saturday slot as recently as this August and has been aired 3 times in primetime on ITV1 in the last two years. The previous screenings have got:

Saturday 10th April 2010, 7pm: 5.7m (25.7%)
Sunday 19th December 2010, 6:30pm: 5.82m (21.2%)
Saturday 13th August 2011, 6:25pm: 5.75m (28.9%) (inc +1)

As you can see it's done really good business for them over the last couple of years, sometimes in some tricky slots (the second screening was against SPOTY) and I'm sure it'll hold up OK tonight, but I'm thinking more high-3s/low-4s. Westlife won't do well but should do better than Bridget Jones last year (c3m I reckon).

Good for BBC1 and ITV1 last night, but low for The Comedy Awards.

Worrying reading and I think moving BP hasn't helped. Now the Weakest Link has died, might it make more sense to move BP to 5.05.
Now here's a real curved ball that might help BBC One in the 5-6 hour, how about BP at 5.05 and Doctors at 5.30.

Well it's not going to happen - Pointless is doing brilliantly and kids programmes are being moved off BBC1 entirely in the next year. Blue Peter has at least been given a good slot at 5.45 on CBBC.

I suppose this is part of their cost cutting and in a way it makes sense not duplicating programming. Also on CBBC BP could justify its low ratings and given a new lease of life. However, I still think Doctors at 5.30 could work as soaps at 5.30 on BBC One have done well in the past.
Actually a childless BBC One will be interesting. I do remember in the mid eighties between 5 and 6 they ran re runs of Star Trek and Doctor Kildare, which went down well.

Blue peter needs to go to CBBC. My son was watching CBBC the other day and something come on that he didn't like. I told him he could switch to BBC One he looked at me with a blank face. He didn't know that children's programs were even on BBC One. To us that seems strange because that's what we grew up with.Nowadays kids just automaticly turn to a children's channel because they know thats where there programs are. I think its possible Blue peter could match its current performance on CBBC in a few years time.

Doctors a 5.30 would be a good idea.

Thankyou, Ken, I also think if Auntie moves all its kids shows to CBBC, then also they could precede Doctors with a one hour drama repeat when Pointless is off air. This would generate a decent audience and maybe give Doctors wider exposure, as this is quite a good show.

I think 12.2million for the first show then 13.5m for the final result.

Here are my Christmas Day predictions:
BBC One, top rated show: Doctor Who 11 million, runner up: Eastenders 9 million.
ITV1, top rated show: Downton Abbey 9.5 million, runner up: Coronation St 7.5 million.
I think it will be BBC One's day until 9pm when DA kicks in and will probably build up a bigger audience after 10pm as I can't see an Absolute Fabulous revival being a particularly big hit.

Yet I could be wrong about Ab Fab, as the BBC revived To The Manor Born after a 26 year absence and it attracted 10 million viewers, even if most people who saw it were disappointed.

You make no sense - Harry Potter is there to counter Strictly, not complement it, and people are no more likely to tune into a film starting after the Strictly performances and stick with it, missing the Strictly result, than they are to watch the hour in between.


The Weakest Link killed off CBBC on BBC1 and shows suffered moving to 4.30pm - they really should have limited the impact by moving them to 4.50pm and sacrificing Newsround in a 4.40pm slot.


I think CBBC gets higher ratings than CBBC on BBC1 anyway. Children have grown up with it and I do think it's difficult to argue against the moving of kids shows to CBBC - although I'd like to see BBC1 reinstate a Saturday morning show so they don't disappear completely - and I think a classic style Saturday morning show would need to be on BBC1 to work.

Out of interest do we have the figures for children watching Blue Peter over the years - I suspect even now a significant proportion watching are nostalgic adults, and obviously it had it's huge figures in it's earlier days due to there being very little other choice. An average age of the viewer would be interesting too.

On Christmas Eve I doubt BBC staff will be whistling Tomorrow Belongs To Us. For once ITV1 have a very powerful alternative to the festive misery of Eastenders in the shape of DA, Corrie should run SCD close( although I think the SCD dance off will pull in about 8.5 million) and I still reckon DA will rule the 10-11 hour. Also Emmerdale should pull in about 6 million.

The reviews for Downton have been overwhelmingly positive so I definately agree it'll beat EastEnders (although whether it does in the 9pm hour will be the Boxing Day fight around here!). I've seen a couple of reviews who both say it is a show worthy of being labelled "special".

Talking of which, Christmas is one time of year where TV's over reliance on celebrity hurts them. A decade ago a "celebrity special" really was that - and only churned out at Christmas or perhaps for the charity telethons - but now you see "The Cube Celebrity Special" or "All Star Family Fortunes Christmas Special" in the schedule and you know there is nothing special about them.

Perhaps they should start doing non-celebrity specials at Christmas then. Actually that be a good idea for Strictly - surprise six worthy fans with a sob-story to tell and put them in the Christmas special rather than celebs who can't be arsed doing the full show.

Channel 5 Programme Averages inc. +1
Friday 16th December

09:15 The Wright Stuff: 380k (6.9%)
11:10 Live with Gabby: 185k (3.3%)
12:15 Law & Order: 169k (2.4%)
13:15 Home & Away: 254k (3.1%)
13:45 Neighbours: 800k (9.7%)
14:20 CSI: New York: 247k (3.1%)
15:20 Single Santa Seeks Mrs. Claus: 693k (6.4%)
17:00 5 News with Matt Barbet: 916k (6.4%)
17:30 Neighbours: 1.32m (7.8%)
18:00 Home & Away: 898k (4.6%)
18:30 OK! TV: 279k (1.3%)
18:55 Disney's 12 Days of Christmas: 227k (1.1%)
19:00 5 News with Emma Crosby: 168k (0.8%)
19:30 Fifth Gear: 297k (1.4%)
20:00 Ice Road Truckers: Deadliest Roads: 1.25m (5.6%)
21:00 Speed: 1.27m (6.6%)
23:25 Comedy Kings: Best of Just for Laughs: 331k (3.1%)

I agree, I'm an awful dancer and would love to learn how to dance with Kristina Rhianoff. Trouble is she would probably end up with a knife in her back from a jealous g/f

It should indeed be interesting, as the removal of the kids shows from BBC1 should in theory send the overall channel share upwards, and increase its hegemony over ITV1 as the nation's most watched channel.


ITV have certainly thrown a curve ball into the mix this year, but I still find myself wondering exactly who will be sitting down for 2 hours of heavy going period drama on Christmas Night?

Yes, elderly Middle England couples with no family or not invited round by their families, plus the jam making spinsters, will I'm sure be in raptures at settling down for some glossy period soap. It's something for those who are lonely this Christmas I guess, and that's nice of ITV to be thinking of them.

But I can't imagine that the millions of people at festive family gatherings will find sitting in deathly silence for over 2 hours - whilst they try to figure out the dialogue over the background music - will find it that big a draw. Bite sized chunks rule the day on Christmas Day.

However, these " grey" viewers and people wanting to watchi something other than Deadenders have an alternative. I predict 9.5 million people will watch DA. However, viewers who don't like either show will be flocking to minor channels and I predict Channel 5's Christmas clips shows picking up well over a million.
Yet for all the BBC will bag the majority of the Christmas Top 10, I still predict ITV1 will have three shows in the Top 10: DA and the soaps.
Actually the whole thing about BBC 1 owning Christmas day has been disproved in some years. In 1978 Morecambe and Wise won the day and in 1979 and 1980, for all the standard of their shows was in decline, they still attracted 16 million viewers to ITV. Then in 1987 ITV flattened BBC1 when they showed Hilda Ogden leaving Coronation St, an episode that attracted 27 million.

In addition to saying a few prayers for Downton in the next week, I bet ITV bosses (and Channel 5's!) are keeping an eye on this developing story...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/16230934.stm



Re Downton, there was an interview with Fincham in the Times Magazine today. Main premise of the piece was how fantastic Downton is, that people are getting used to this sort of quality on ITV now (really? ), and it's going to triumph in the festive ratings. So, no spoiling tactics or a seasonal gift to the nation even if suicidally scheduled - it's been put there to win - straight from the horse's mouth!

No pressure then...

I think Ab Fab will do very very well myself. Not beating Downton, but pretty similar.
I also think Downton at 9 million is too high. Thats practically what it was getting against Spooks! Let alone EE on Christmas Day.

Reviews might be positive, but I think 2 hours plus ads will turn viewers off. MASSIVE timeshift though. Which would make the Christmas Day position rather foolish frankly.

At the end of Christmas day i just don't see 9 million people watching ads. They'll stick with EE, and maybe Downton will get boosted by people timeshifting after EE (adding to the overnight) but I think the BBC still have enough on for it to do not so much damage. EE is also building up to something, Downton is just sort of 'there'.

Doctor Who will likely win the night. Not sure about 11 million, but possibly (I do think it does better on later, so it'll be put to the test! (am often still eating while Who is on, and am sure other families are the same).

I think DW will win the day overall, but DA will win for ITV1. Actually re ITV and quality, they have improved their drama and factual over the last few years, but their entertainment in the main is awful( they still love shows prefixed by Celebrity), daytime and breakfast are abysmal and the overkill with their biggest shows is unbearable. Also this year has seen a whole string of flops- Red or Black is the most obvious and most expensive one, but there have been a heap of substandard reality shows like 71 Degrees North and Popstar to Operastar that should never have been revived.

Ab Fab will struggle against Downton Abbey. I suspect I will have to go to another room to watch it whilst the parents watch DA.

Live from Gabby isnt doing too well, I assume its only doable, because it makes production savings, being on the same set at The Wright Stuff, still cant say Channel 5 hasnt given it a go.

I think so as well. This is a show that peaked around 1994 and I think the Patsy and Edina characters will be too embarassing now. Also a revival 8 years ago that featured a fetish club, apart from being controversial, wasn't funny.

Friday 16th December - Soap Overnights
BBC One
13:45- Doctors: 1.74m (21.3%)
20:00- EastEnders: 7.54m (33.8%)

ITV1
19:00- Emmerdale: 7.10m (33.9%) , +1: 105k (0.5%)
19:30- Coronation Street: 8.52m (39.0%)
20:30- Coronation Street: 8.08m (35.5%) , +1: 103k (0.5%)

Channel 4
18:30- Hollyoaks: 949k (4.5%)

Channel 5
13:45- Neighbours: 800k (9.7%)
17:30- Neighbours: 1.32m (7.8%)
18:00- Home and Away: 882k (4.5%)

BBC Three
22:00- EastEnders: 617k (3%)

E4
19:00- Hollyoaks: 372k (1.8%)

Ratings include HD and are tape-checked where necessary

Source: DS