How exciting - does this mean we can expect to see the results for Christmas Day tomorrow then?

Brilliant confirmed official ratings there for BBC1, with superb figures for Outnumbered and Lapland in particular.

Do you have the official numbers for HIGNFY, Miranda and Norton on Fri 23rd, and for SPOTY on the 22nd? Also the 2nd and 3rd Herriots?

Speaking of predictions, where the new RPG Season 14 thread?

Will be interesting how Endeavour does tomorrow, think a series is likely if Lewis ends this year.

Big chunk? 5%. What's a small chunk then? With +1 its only down 1%. Your spin on ITV ratings is beyond ridiculous sometimes.

But to be honest after CBB6, people thought the novelty had worn off, but CBB7 launched with an official of 6.7m. Then before CBB8, people were predicting around the mid 2m, because it was on Ch5, and it launched with 5.1m. I think people will always tune in for the launch of CBB, but we know what happens from there.

It will achieve around a 2.4m average across the three weeks IMO. I still think that CBB7 still remains the shock rated series where it rated 3.7m average. I remember the 11pm slot getting 3.6m in the final nights, something we would never have thought would have happened after BB10.

It's here: http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1606923

Bumper week with Endeavour, CBB, DOI, Hustle, L&O, Public Enemies, One Born Every Minute and many more new shows.

Says the person who aggregates repeat showings to bump up the figures....

Well I'm not going to go down the +1 side of things with you cos we all know that would be pointless. But I like how you've totally ignored my question...?

I think it will start with 4-5million again, CelebBB always starts strong as people always have the intrigue of seeing who has gone in the house. What happens after that depends on what celebs they have signed up.

also the Daily Star will be doing its ridiculous "Charlie Sheen, Kate and Wills to enter the house riding Shergar" type stories to build the hype up.

Next Saturday's Casualty is the first one made in HD at the new Cardif base.
I'm predicting 10.1m in the overnights for EE tonight and 9.2 for Sherlock.

The voice of reason.

The Daily Star can do what it wants, nobody pays attention to it anyway.

Theoretically Merlin could last as long as Dr Who did in the 20th Century (26 years). Merlin is the only character that has to be in it, so they could, if they wanted, take him away from Camelot to have magical adventures in some other land far, far away. And if Colin Morgan decide to leave, they could invent a storyline for Merlin to use his magic to change his appearance.

Of course, there's always the risk that such wholesale changes would sent the ratings plummeting.

I've edited my post as follows:


I'll let the figures speak for themselves.

NYD prediction:

EE - 9.2m [early slot, feature length, unusual day and Potter all hurting it]
Sherlock - 6.6m
AbFab - 6m

Harry Potter - 5.7m
John Thaw - 4.9m

Hmm, I still think, including or excluding +1, BGT's minor slide this year compared to 2010 is a bit of a drop in the ocean when compared to the big ratings stories of the year. Not sure why anyone would even bother to bring it up in a review of the year concerning extremes, etc. It's not that noteworthy.

In fairness, I didn't make a big thing of it - it was Roscoe who was having a whinge about me including SCD as a "hit" when in his/her world it fell more than BGT supposedly did, and probably the fact I included TXF, BGT and ROB together as failing Cowell shows.

Big underestimate for Sherlock there.

Whilst true HP could prove quite the competition (low 5 million for it I think) - it should still do better than the 7.5 for series 1.

BBC has a strong line up of shows - this has proven to be the ratings winner over the last 2 weeks.

Sherlock will most certainly be 7 million +
Its also helped that EE will stop some swtiching to HP.

Add to that Half Blood Prince is one of the weakest books/films and I can't see it really 'damaging' Sherlock as much as you seem to think.


Sherlock will be higher for episode 2 though.

Here's the Ratings Prediction Game Forecast for tonight from over 30 people:

Bolt: 5.0m
EastEnders: 10.3m
Sherlock: 8.7m
Absolutely Fabulous: 6.5m

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: 5.1m

The Hotel – Sun 20:00 Channel 4: 1.5m
Bear’s Wild Weekend with Jonathan Ross – Sun 21:00 Channel 4: 1.8m
Hacks – Sun 22:00 Channel 4: 1.2m

Treasure Island – Sun 19:00 Sky1: 0.9m

Merlin and Arthur are the key characters. Without one or the other it can only last 'so long'
(you could get rid of Arthur but only by sending Merlin away from Camelot (out into the kingdom would work - with some wee scenes of Arthur here and there)

I don't see it outlasting Who, and Colin Morgan is essential - a main pull to the show is the cast and some fun. Arthur/Merlin have been key to this.

That looks likely (EE might be in the 9 millions though). Although I can see Treasure Island being well...a bit closer to a flop! Its kind of failed to build the attention that other Sky dramas have had.

I think thats realistic for Sherlock, but its a bit of a wild guess with the show I think - it could be high 9 million, or around 7 million. So 8.7 is a nice median I think.

It was just ludacris including BGT in your update in your awards post. As Dancc says, its not note worthing really. As for RoB - I'm glad that failed. It was terrible. Also just reading your comments on DA in your awards post and it clear that only you could put some form on negative spin on a 11/12m series average for the most watched drama series in over 7 years. FYI - I don't watch DA. It's not my thing at all, by there's no denying with a reduced XF lead-in to build y-o-y is very impressive.

Hence I made it my "runner up", in my own subjective/objective (delete as appropriate) opinion.

As for BGT, you are the one making a big issue out of it! Like I say, I did not single BGT out particularly but made general observations about Cowell's trio of shows.

I'll predict


BBC1
1900 EastEnders 10.8 (pk 12.5 at 8pm)
2010 Sherlock Holmes 8.6 (pk 10.1 at 8.15)
2140 Ab Fab 6.0

ITV1
1900 Haz Potter 4.4 (+500,000)
2145 John Thaw 2.2

Ch4
2000 The Hotel 1.6 (+300,000)
2100 Wild Weekend 1.9 (+200,000)

All I said was that 5% wasn't a massive chunk, but you've amended your post now . Not really a big issue...

Sherlock 6.6? I'm sure you dont think that, its probably so you can feign you shock and thrill at its 8m+ ratings tomorrow against the jugganaught opposition...

I think 3 million is a ball park average. Obviously the glory days of 6 million are over, but CBB is a big deal for Channel 5. Also the demos are better than people think: 44 pc of viewers are ABC1s and it trends older than BB. Defeats the myth only twentysomething chavettes and teenagers watch it.