I explained at length the other day why I thought Sherlock would probably overnight in the 6.3-6.8m ballpark, consolidating to c7.5m or a little more.

Not a blatant underprediction, for the reasons I have explained in detail. I think some are however getting carried away based on the summer 2010 ratings for s1.

Radio Times letters page...
Reader: "Please can we have another series of Death In Paradise?"
A BBC Drama spokesman replies: "Death In Paradise is a co-production with France Televisions. Since it has not yet been shown to French viewers, it's too early to say if there'll be a second series".

Twitter - Manish Bhasin (the football presenter, on fans' anger that the BBC will go 3 weeks without showing The Football League Show...)
"it's a budget decision i'm afraid...But all the goals will be online on the BBC Football website"
"Next FLS is not till Jan 14... With a Carling Cup Show on Jan 10.. I feel your frustration believe me..."

http://twitter.com/bbc_manish

The Royal Guard shoud Rate well tomorrow night.
It's got EastEnders at 8:00pm and a special 'Farewell Pat' at 8:30pm to help it.

Er, but it's shit and is up against Young Inspector Morse Gently which will utterly crush it.

And CoroSt will crush the Farewell Pat filler.

Sub 5m for The Royal Bodyguard tomorrow I am sure. Endeavour could easily be 8-9m, possibly more!

Then again it's on against the Inspector Morse prequel which has a Corrie lead-in. Plus it's shite.

whilst I agree that Farewell Pat is not the ideal lead in dan2008 thinks it is, I dont think Endeavour is going to do as much as 9 millilon, low 8 million maybe.

Maybe 6m to 8m, but:

a) BBC1 are not waving the white flag against it
b) people may turn off TV earlier as it is 'back to normal' as from Tuesday

So I don't think it will be that high.

I think the Farewell Pat will do OK. Maybe 4-5m and thus denting Corrie quite alot I would have thought.

TRB under 5m? Could it really lose over 2m viewers? As for Endeavour. That seems like a massive overprediction. So Sherlock can't get 8m+, but Endeavor can. Highly unlikely I would have thought. I reckon 6-7m.

Fair points. I also think there might be a feeling that they are flogging a dead horse.

(Or even flogging a dead Morse...! )

David Jason is very popular (despite the show being rubbish) but i think a lead in from EastEnders/Pat special could rate very well.

What did the Peggy special on BBC1 get against Corrie back in September 2010? (pat is much more popular though)

It lost >1m whilst on air last Monday!

I am quite sure it can lose another million in "non returners".

Maybe this is because I dont watch ITV, but ive not seen or heard much promotion for Endeavour. Unlike Sherlock which I have seen promos for, and generally people seem excited about.

Tonight I have gone for the following :
BBC1
Bolt 6.1m (optimistic I know)
Eastenders 9.5m (dented by Potter clash)
Sherlock 8.5m (can see viewers sticking with BBC1)
Absolutely Fabulous 6.9m (slight drop on last week)
ITV1
YBF Top 100 Animals 3.5m (will struggle against Bolt))
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 6.4m (EE, Sherlock clash ans 2:45 length will damage it somewhat)
The Unforgettable John Thaw 4.4m (expect viewer numbers to drop off, plus AbFab clash)

I really hope they won't try and go on without Colin Morgan or Bradley James. I love 'Merlin' but the thought brings back memories of series 3 Robin Hood, when they'd killed Marion and tried to bring in a new Robin.

It's an odd show - it gets a solid 7-8 million and really high AIs (I read the finale was 90) but almost no press interest. The BBC never mentioned the Christmas Eve episode in any of the Christmas promotions that I saw. I don't know why Colin Morgan wasn't in a jumper round the piano in that trailer. I never really feel the BBC is proud of it, in comparison to some of their other dramas. Morgan, James and the rest of the cast have very little promotion, so arguably it could survive a change of cast, if most of that pretty silent 7-8 just want sword fights and dragons. They could explain any change with 'magic'. But I can't imagine watching it without them.

What have the HazPot premieres rated before?

I think we gathered that. I must admit I only really watch the 9pm dramas, some of the films, BGT and DOI on ITV1, but I do when I'm in the North East watch ITV3 and 4. ITV2 I only watch if there's a decent film on.

I was trying to be fair to Endeavour, and hoping people might tell me if im wrong or right about the amount of promotion Endeavour has gotten.

garyessex I think HazPot is a whole other show, possibly from the internet

No problem, Charnham, there are some channels I don't watch either usually because I have a Freeview lite or have no interest in like ITV2. Generally I avoid soaps, most reality shows, morning and breakfast shows.

Now my final awards for 2011:
It keeps going regardless award- IAC, ITV's longest running reality show that has outlived its peers and still does good business.
Cruel flop award- Single Handed, an excellent police drama that struggled with 2.8 million viewers.
Good riddance award- OK TV, a complete pile of garbage that deservedly got pulled.
Career reversal award- Christine Bleakley, 6 million for TOS, 700,000 for Daybreak and then the sack.
Quietly doing well award- TOS, 5 million a night and something to worry Emmerdale with.

Harry Potter Premiere Overnight Ratings:

Harry Potter & The Philosopher's Stone (BBC1, 25/12/04): 7.9m
Harry Potter & The Chamber of Secrets (ITV1, 03/12/05): 8.0m (37%)
Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban (ITV1, 12/01/07): 8.0m (34%)
Harry Potter & The Goblet of Fire (ITV1, 05/10/08): 7.2m (29%)
Harry Potter & The Order of the Phoenix (ITV1, 10/04/10): 5.7m (26%)

There seems to have been a noticeable decline in the HP premiere ratings since 2008.

how is daybreak doing lately?

Interested to see what will happen to the god awful show.

I don't think it troubles Emmerdale. I know once upon a time there were a few who were eagerly anticipating it overtaking Emmerdale but it wasn't to be.

It's probably more a reflection on the pockets of the nation than the viewing habits. Plus the relative safety of people knowing Natasha Kaplinsky or Myleene Klass are unlikely to be anywhere near them now.


A bit of a contradiction there surely seemingly based on one show being returned to where it came from. On the whole Danny Cohen is doing a very good job with BBC1 IMO in much tougher circumstances than his predecessors.



It's one of the most baffling scheduling decisions of the year. Perhaps that's where BBC1 found it's extra million viewers.


Now are you seriously suggesting that Robbie would be biased in the BBC's favour?


People keep saying how much better Celebrity Big Brother does than Big Brother and how one doesn't affect the others - but can anyone seriously suggest the 50% of Celeb BB viewers who soon got tired of the normal series will all return. The build up has been much much quieter than it was back in August too, even in the Daily Star it seems, so I think the launch could be up to 4.5m, but the longer running time and tougher competition could knock that down by up to a million.

As for the daily shows - I'm expecting about the same as the summer at best really, which I considered a flop but Dancc will consider a huge success I'm sure. In relative terms though C5 would be happy to keep it around the 2.2m range for regular shows - but personally I think it'll dip to just under the 2m mark based on the natural decline in ratings over the years.


New Years Eve I could understand but surprised they didn't do something on Boxing Day. Indeed I'm sure in the first year of their contract the BBC were forced to put extra shows in the schedules at times when they tried to get away without them.

It also highlights one of the issues with the Football League Show. IMO it would be better scheduled (or at least repeated) the next day (around Noon on BBC2) than in it's late night post-MOTD slot, and I'm sure the BBC could have accomodated a show this afternoon. They may blame the budget, but all goals are still being filmed for the website so it's not like they're saving the total cost.

BTW, how well does the show usually rate on Saturday nights, and how does this compare to The Championships last season or two on ITV?

Mind you it is a solid performer for BBC One and is a consistent show after the mishmash of shows they used to put against the Dale.
Actually you could say the Dale is consistent as it seems to hover around the 7 million mark and these are similar figures to what it had when it Farm on the end.

It's been off air since December 23rd Ken, so nothing to report on that score!

It returns to brighten up the mornings of ITV1 viewers on Tuesday with its 'lively mix' of features.


I'm touched. But no need to take my word for it, all the respected media sources were broadly saying the same.