Originally Posted by Brekkie:
“The X Factor has shown here and in Aus it's a grower, not a shower, and it could still really take off in the US - but not while Idol is still around IMO. I think though with Idol losing viewers regardless of what Fox do with that as long as X Factor matches it's season one figures it's a good bet for a third season - but it will need to take off spectacularly this autumn to nab the Idol slot from the next season as Fox will have to make the decision practically a year in advance.”
I know The X Factor has something of a history of growing from year 1 to 2 in other markets (which is why I wouldn't completely bet against the US version) but I'm not holding out a lot of hope of them doing the same in the US. Its going to take something rather spectacular to get audiences interested in the show this time around and I'm not sure that Cowell has the money or the juice to do that for the US market. Its also worth remembering that despite the huge advertising budget that was given the series one it didn't even start particularly well which would suggest there's just not that much interest in the whole thing.
To be honest I think Fox's best play with The X Factor season two is to bring it forward and debut it toward the end of the summer. Its a less crowded market at that point which should make it easier to get some eyes on the show and might also allow them to build up more momentum before the World Series kicks in. I think its worth remembering that Idol (and Dancing with the Stars) both started in the summer and in fact The Voice is really the only talent show that's successfully launched in the US during the regular season and I don't think anyone quite knows how that happened.
Originally Posted by Salv*:
“I think it's safe to say that TBBT is now the biggest sitcom since Friends finished.”
It isn't.
Two and a Half Men still retains that title commercially and Modern Family easily takes the title critically. That's not to say that Big Bang Theory isn't huge and it might very well be the biggest comedy on television right now but certainly not the biggest to launch since Friends ended. Not yet anyway.
Originally Posted by paltonz:
“Come season finale, should we anticipate a 7.0+ and over 20m for TBBT or am I getting just too excited for that?”
You really shouldn't anticipate that.
Quote:
“2. If CBS wants more new sitcoms next season, Rob and ROE aside, willl CBS go ruthless for other sitcoms too or open a new comedy block?”
CBS will want new sitcoms next season (that's not an if). The question of how they schedule them remains open to debate and will do until we get a better idea of how Rob holds up for the rest of the season. As things stand it seems inevitable that they'll have to extend the Thursday block and I'd imagine they'll do that by shipping over one of the Monday comedies and renewing at least one of Rules or Rob which gives them 90 minutes on Monday and Thursday and an open slot for a new comedy on each night.
Originally Posted by rzt:
“Any idea how or why Person of Interest's audience has gone up from c12.5m just before Christmas to c14.5m in recent weeks since it returned?”
Better lead-in and reduced competition.
Originally Posted by Jonwo:
“As for the CBS comedy, I think an expansion is likely, I still think Sunday would be a great day for comedy especially as they'd be less affected by overrun compared to drama.”
I'm not sure of much when it comes to CBS but I am however sure they aren't going to put comedy on Sunday nights. That'll stay mostly unscripted and probably return to one drama at 10PM next season.
Originally Posted by lala:
“But I wonder which one sells better on DVD/itunes? I would imagine TBBT is doing great in the overnights, but shows like 30 Rock might be doing even better when in correlation to PVR viewings etc. Someone needs to check up on that one. -Looks over to C14E lol”
Not particularly.
The most recent Live+7 (includes timeshift viewing the week after broadcast) are from January 9-15 and for reference sake I'll include Family Guy and Modern Family as well as Big Bang Theory and some of the NBC comedies.
Live+SD
Big Bang Theory – 5.3
Modern Family – 5.1
Family Guy – 4.4
The Office – 2.9
Up All Night – 2.0
Parks & Rec – 1.9
30 Rock – 1.8
Live+7
Modern Family – 7.4
Big Bang Theory – 7.1
Family Guy – 5.2
The Office – 4.3
Up All Night – 3.0
30 Rock – 2.6
Parks & Rec – 2.6
Increase
Modern Family – 2.3 / 45%
Big Bang Theory – 1.8 / 34%
The Office – 1.4 / 48%
Up All Night – 1.0 / 50%
Family Guy – 0.8 / 18%
30 Rock – 0.8 / 44%
Parks & Rec – 0.7 / 37%
So the NBC comedies tend to get bigger percentage increases (by virtue of having a lower starting point) but in terms of absolute increases its Modern Family and Big Bang Theory that are ruling the waves and are still massively ahead of the competition. On the subject of DVD sales for 2011 The Big Bang Theory was one of the biggest selling television DVD's in the US. If memory serves it was second only to HBO's True Blood on total sales so again the NBC comedies aren't clawing back any ground there either. Although The Office traditionally has had very high DVD sales but those have dipped along with the shows broadcast popularity.
Originally Posted by Jonwo:
“The problem is 30 Rock and Community are on NBC and also quite niche although TBH I don't think they would survived had they been on CBS or FOX, I think the traditional sitcom has made a comeback although i would argue it never went away, stuff like Modern Family is a traditional comedy in a non tradition style.”
I think both would have pulled better numbers on other networks particularly 30 Rock. I suspect had it aired on any of the other major broadcast networks then 30 Rock would have been a pretty solid hit rather than the borderline hit it was for NBC.
Originally Posted by Score:
“The Firm getting axed was inevitable and I'm glad that Awake is finally on the schedule, but I'm just not sure about that slot. The competition is pretty tough and the lead-in will be low (although on NBC that almost goes without saying). Hopefully they'll have an hour long Office on the night it premieres to give it a decent lead-in. It sounds like a really interesting show and I hope it does well, but I'm really not sure about that slot. I think it would have done better on Tuesdays with TBL lead-in, with the dreadful sounding Fashion Star on Thursdays.”
I suspect Awake will get some Super Bowl promotion and will get a tidal wave of promotion during The Voice leading up to its debut. NBC really need this (and Smash) to work. I think the Thursday 10PM slot is fine. Private Practice is basically on its last legs and The Mentalist is worryingly erratic. If NBC can get the promo right Awake should at least get a decent sampling.
Originally Posted by C14E:
“With all the networks likely to have completed their drama orders... It's always hard to tell what will work unless you can read the scripts but there are some safe bets to get orders.”
There really aren't.
Marc Cherry and Shonda Rhimes have both have shows rejected in the recent past and and with Rhimes already having at least two shows on the broadcast no one will feel compelled to pick up a third (or fourth). The death of Housewives might prompt ABC to pick up Cherry's project this time around but its one of a couple of similar projects ABC have in development so its far from a sure thing at this stage. On the subject of Abrams project at NBC – that $2 million penalty was carried over from a different project last year that NBC rejected. Eventually they may just have to face-up to paying that penalty especially given how terrible Abrams television track record is.
Pilots are massively unpredictable things and if you follow the development rumours you'll notice how often things change from 'sure things' and being 'hot' to no one mentioning them ever again. There'll also be at least one pilot that the blogs will completely dismiss that will get a series order. There were several of them last season and several of the sure things got rejected. Its a crazy time of year.
Originally Posted by Jonwo:
“I think Glee should take a 24 schedule and air in January, it seems to be continually interrupted. The other option is 11 episodes in the Autumn and 11 episodes in March with a midseason drama from January-March.”
Glee is too valuable not to air throughout the season so I doubt we'll ever see it airing from January. At this point if it weren't for the World Series then it would likely be airing in the two blocks you suggested but the World Series means that Fox have episodes in hand come January and understandably they opt to air them. The World Series is generally a bit of scheduling nightmare for Fox.
Originally Posted by sam.hall13:
“How on earth do they get away with so many repeats? It is a disgrace and if i were a big advertisers i'd be withdrawing my ads in protest.”
They're all scheduled repeats – advertisers buy time knowing that they're buying time for a repeat and not an original episode. This is how US television works. They can't produce enough original episodes to cut out repeats so they alternate between a run of repeats and a run of original episodes.
