The problem with 'lowest vote always goes' is what I'll call the 'bottom 3 bounce'. If a singer is in the bottom 3 but not eliminated, she gets a bounce the following week as her fans will vote more to help keep her in, and that can mean a surprising elimination the following week.
i.e. Pia Toscana's shock elimination last year. If she had been in the bottom 3 the previous week there is no way she would have been eliminated like that. (The judges's save had already been used for Casey, another surprise last place).