BGT moving to 8.30pm ought to boost the averages of both shows. Just looking at The Voice UK's breakdown from Saturday:
Code:
19:00 7.167
19:05 7.9
19:10 8.44
19:15 8.92
19:20 9.17
19:25 9.51
19:30 9.82
19:35 10.00
19:40 10.18
19:45 10.41
19:50 10.56
19:55 10.68
20:00 10.22
20:05 9.89
20:10 9.89
20:15 9.90
The audience was building +0.2m every 5 minutes or so between 7.30-8pm before dipping when BGT started at 8pm. Had BGT not been airing in those 20 minutes, the audience would've continued to go up by +0.2m every 5 minutes and it would've averaged about 9.8m instead of 9.5m overall between 7-8.20pm. Had that particular episode been airing until 8.30pm (instead of 8.20pm) like the battle episode, it'd have given the show even more time to build its audience, so in that situation it would've averaged about 10m overall. So the battle episode in a couple of weeks' time ought to rate well, there's an automatic +0.5m boost already there waiting for it, which should at least cover up any potential decline the battle stage would've got.
As for Britain's Got Talent's breakdown:
Code:
20:00 4.532
20:05 6.954
20:10 6.471
20:15 6.761
20:20 10.436
20:25 10.813
20:30 8.671
20:35 10.786
20:40 11.009
20:45 9.512
20:50 9.961
20:55 11.281
21:00 8.963
21:05 10.089
21:10 10.296
The first 20-minutes averaged 6.2m while the remaining 45-minutes averaged 10.2m, giving it a 9.1m average. Last year the first 20-minutes of BGT's auditions episodes were rating between 8-9m, had the above episode not faced TVUK the first 20-mins would've got c9m (aside from the clash, eps this year are rating and peaking higher) and that episode would've averaged 9.9m, so a +0.8m boost to what it actually got [for the full slot figure]. With Saturday 21st not being an Easter weekend that week, it should be looking at a 10m+ average. But I still think it will be pretty close in the averages between TVUK and BGT, as both shows will experience a boost (though BGTs boost should be bigger).
Originally Posted by AlexiR:
“Well that's going to produce some interesting results. 9:45 seems like a late end time for Talent. Have any of the audition shows run that late before? It seems like that has the potential to dent the audience hence ITV being reluctant to do it until their hand was forced. Of course this also heaps pressure on the Battle Rounds to produce the goods viewer wise.”
Last year's BGT launch show ran between 8.20-9.50pm and in 2009, the final auditions show ran between 8.20-9.50pm. Both of those episodes rated well, and BGT has started at 8.20pm for other audition episodes before (though running at 1hr) and they have generally rated very well. Here's a breakdown of last year's launch:
Code:
20:20 8.27
20:25 9.23
20:30 9.12
20:35 8.86
20:40 10.18
20:45 9.54
20:50 9.20
20:55 10.73
21:00 10.29
21:05 9.84
21:10 10.84
21:15 10.90
21:20 9.43
21:25 10.86
21:30 10.95
21:35 9.69
21:40 10.73
21:45 10.40
The audience tends to build up right through to 9-9.30pm and then stabilises or drops off a little after then. I think the ideal schedule, if there was no Voice, would be 8.15-9.30pm but I don't think the 8.30-9.45pm schedule will do any significant damage to its figures. Certainly running 8.30-9.45pm (with no clash against TVUK) is a better situation than 8-9.15pm (with a 30-min clash).