Originally Posted by sensoria:
“They are favourites with the bookies because so many people are betting on them. That means very little.
In reality Wales are at home.
England are on the back if two shaky games
Wales are on the back of two strong performances.
England have never won a slam in Cardiff
England haven't won a grand slam in a decade.”
I think the more pertinent stats at the moment are that Wales haven't conceded a try since the start of the second half of the Ireland game first up and they haven't conceded any points at all in the last quarter of any game.
I think that for England to take anything out of this match then they need to take a leaf out of Ireland's book and catch Wales cold. Strike hard and strike early. I can't help but feel that if it is close or Wales have a decent lead on the hour then the game will only go one way.
Unfortunately, as nice as it would be to see Wales win back-to-back championships I feel that there are deep problems with the Welsh team at the moment and a victory here would just be papering over the cracks. This attritional, safety-first, 10-man +Halfpenny rugby could serve us well in the Six Nations for the foreseeable future but has been shown to be ineffective against the southern hemisphere sides.
Despite the resurgence of Wales in the last ten years it's still glaringly obvious that England, Ireland, Scotland and France all have better records against the southern hemisphere teams in that time. Grand Slams are fine but on three occasions Wales have failed to kick on and get to the next level which has now gone beyond worrying.
Thinking about it, the chippy Welshman in me is starting to think that the best result would be a comfortable six-point win for Wales. It would mean that we get a win against England (always nice); the lack of a championship may stop the Welsh camp thinking that everything is fine and dandy; and best of all we would get revenge for 1994 by having a dejected Chris Robshaw have to half-heartedly lift the trophy in an empty Millennium Stadium. Perhaps we could get Ieuan Evans to present it.