Originally Posted by rzt:
“I disagree. BGT still had a higher overnight rating for its performance show, which faced tougher competition, than Corrie so I dont think it needs Corrie to boost it.
I'd say the EE at 7.30pm/Snooker excuse might've dented its average by about 0.5m compared to last year, but that's all. So even after taking that into account, it would be still be down from the 2010 and 2011 Bank Holiday Monday ratings. I'm not quite sure why it's down at this stage given that it was faring well y-o-y for the last couple of months. I'll wait to see how the next couple of shows do, as it could stabilise better than last year's semi finals. But if it doesn't stabilise (which I think is quite likely - the performance show could well be down into the 8's tonight), it'll be a similar situation to last year's X Factor which did well during the auditions but didn't pick up for the live shows. Just a theory but perhaps these shows are now so established that most people who want to watch them are now indeed doing so right from the beginning of the series and therefore the scope for ratings to grow during the live shows decreases. When the format was younger, the start to end of the series saw some serious growth (+116% in 2007, +49% in 2008, +65% in 2009) but in the last couple of years it's been: +16% in 2010, +20% in 2011. So the auditions are still rating really well because its fans are now watching right from the start but the live shows are flatlining a bit as BGT isn't commanding the same kind of word of mouth it used to when it was a fresher format to bring in the 'non-BGT fans', and obviously it doesn't help how the scheduling is as the competition generally ends up becoming a bit tougher for the live shows than auditions (EE).
Bank Holiday Monday Peaks:
2011- Performance: 13.0m/13.5m, results: 11.0m/11.3m (exc/inc +1)
2012- Performance: 11.8m/12.3m, results: 9.4m/9.8m (exc/inc +1)
I'm not sure if they can do that, but even if they can, they'd still only have 9 ad breaks in and around BGT (6 internal, 3 external) whereas at the moment it has 10 breaks (6 internal, 4 external). I do agree though that from a pure ratings perspective the current strategy prevents the show from reaching its full potential, and with your suggestion even though they'd have 1 fewer ad break around it, they'd have higher ratings to make up for them.”
I think you're slightly underestimating the EE effect there - I reckon it'll have knocked 1.5-2m off the show for that half hour, which equates to knocking 0.5-0.7m off the overall average, with the snooker knocking another 0.2m off the average, so I reckon it could've averaged 10.5-10.7m had the competition been the same as last year. Obviously that's still a decline but as has been noted, last year's first semi final had a perfect storm of Cowell's return in the middle of the Cheryl Cole saga so will have been boosted a bit. It's worth noting that last night's performances show had exactly the same peak (12.3m) as 2010's Monday night show, which averaged 10.7m, suggesting that last night's average was knocked down a bit by other factors. A combination of it being a school night and Corrie being 1.6m down on last year will have done it for the results show. If it's down by a significant amount tonight (below 9m for the performances inc +1) then they've got a problem. The results look set to be down all week but there are more understandable reasons for that. What might help is that the live shows are better this year than the last couple of years, so it might not shed as many viewers.
I think you've got a point about excitement for the live shows not being as high as it used to be but I do think a lot of that is down to the scheduling. I really think running the whole thing in one show from 8-10pm like they did on Sunday would be the best thing to do, with Corrie stripped nightly at 7:30pm. I know that means there could be a soap clash, but tbh I suspect there's less of a crossover between the Corrie/EE audiences than there is between BGT/EE anyway.
Alternatively, they could air them weekly. I don't think the show massively benefits from running nightly any more (indeed, it might even hinder it a bit), so I don't see why they couldn't air it weekly. They could do one long 2 hour show every Saturday night (7:30-9:30pm or 8-10pm) or split it with a new show in the middle (probably depends on where The Voice goes). It'd mean they could start it much earlier in the year, probably towards the end of February and it could run for 13 weeks on Saturday nights. ITV's Q1 schedule would get a massive boost and BGT would probably rate slightly better as the auditions would air during worse weather in February/March and the live shows would avoid EE clashes and, if they were to do results shows, they wouldn't be dented by starting halfway through everything else. With Cowell not on Idol any more I think it could be the best way forwards for them.
