Originally Posted by rzt:
“Danny Cohen said a couple weeks ago that there might be 'tweaks' in the BBC1 soap schedule in light of ITV1's change of Corrie and football days from this Autumn. I think the Thursday 7.30pm EastEnders could be moved to 8.30pm with Waterloo Road slotting in at 7.30pm on Thursdays.
My thinking is that at the moment BBC1 uses the Tuesday 9pm slot as the 'drama slot' a lot of the time. With ITV1's football moving to Tuesdays, the competition for these dramas are going to get much tougher than the c2m shows they're currently facing. Shows like Silk which get 4.7m against 1.6m opposition could be falling down to 4.0m against some decent competition. So I reckon BBC1 will want to establish a drama slot on Thursdays at 9pm where ITV1 will be very weak. To do that, they could move EastEnders to 8.30pm on that night to provide a high lead-in for the 9pm hour and then slot in Waterloo Road between 7.30-8.30pm on Thursdays so it at least has a 30-minute head-start over ITV1's 8pm Emmerdale and can pick up an audience close or around 5m. I guess it could become a game of chess, with ITV1 then reacting to that change and turning Emmerdale into a one-hour episode from 7-8pm so it dents Waterloo Road, but then they're in a bad position post 8pm with relatively tough competition from BBC1.”
If BBC1 do that then it might possibly work out for them if ITV don't react, with the EE lead-in giving dramas a big boost at 9pm. However as you've said ITV could merge the two Emmerdale episodes (which would make sense with no EE at 7:30pm), meaning that new programmes at 8pm would have a decent ED lead-in, and a half hour headstart on EE where it would only air against a weakened WR, which would be dented by ED (we saw in the Autumn that hour long Emmerdales dented WR quite a bit when it aired at 7:30pm). EE would then suffer from starting away from ITV's and other network's junctions (a bit like Corrie does now but with a significantly weaker lead-in than Corrie has). Admittedly the 9pm show would still get a big lead-in but EE could be dented. Obviously that would depend on the strength of ITV's offerings, but what would be stopping them from running 2 hour episodes of Midsomer Murders (or similar shows) in the Thursday 8pm slot with an ED lead-in, which would rate well and also dent any new dramas at 9pm. If anything, ITV could potentially benefit overall from BBC1 doing that.
BBC1 could move EE back to 8pm in response but that would mess everything up as WR would have to move and it wouldn't be giving a new 9pm drama a lead-in. I suppose what BBC1 could do keep the Thursday EE at 7:30pm and move WR back to its old Thursday 8pm slot. The second Emmerdale would dent it a bit but the EE lead-in could potentially cancel that out and they'd have a solid night overall. Although moving WR away from Wednesday could harm that night as they don't really have any other reliable performers there (other than The Apprentice but that's at 9pm and only 12 weeks per year). Normally that wouldn't be too worrying as filler like DIY SOS can rate well enough, but with Corrie moving back there, the 7:30pm show will be badly dented and ITV will be stronger at 8pm, so Wednesdays (pre-9pm at least) could be a bit of a struggle without WR doing a solid c4.5m there for 20-30 weeks per year.
This is of course working on the assumption that ITV will move Thursday's Corrie to the Wednesday 7:30pm slot. A better option for them could be to move Friday's 7:30pm Corrie to Wednesday, and move the Thursday Emmerdale to Friday at 7:30pm (forming a 1 hour episode). So then you'd have Emmerdale nightly at 7pm (1 hour on Fridays), whilst Corrie would only have one double per week, with single episodes on Wednesday (7:30pm), Thursday (8pm - or 7:30pm if BBC1 do move EE to 8:30pm) and Friday (8:30pm).