[ZicoZ]

Originally Posted by Janette800

Lydia (1/4), Victoria (7/2), Conor (20)

according to oddscheckers

Weird that the bookies have Lydia as favourite to go and yet she is much more popular than Victoria on all the forums .

[bigBro2011]

be glad he has become popular , he will not win so we get to take a short price about him......


around 6/1 we are to believe he has a over 14% true proability of winning OUTRIGHT , LMAO thats fooking ridiculous he is a 16/1 chance at best (6%) i have been trading and will continue to as i know full well this is a over-bet contender , and while gaining value you always need to spot the market mistakes and the further up the betting order they happen the greater advantage you gain.


please be aware though that its very possible people are just positioning themselves in the market i.e they will back him believing his price will steam (contract) and trade out for guaranteed profit or take a 0 risk strategy gaining stake back and leaving profit/break even opportunity......... its done with regular frequency for housemates that are semi interesting and less likely to divide opinion for example those who backed Aaron or jay last year did so not to trade but for long term position as they did divide opinion where as people traded a few under the radar contestants for trading purpose only , betfair is a exchange so market movers should be looked at different compared to regular bookmakers market movers

money for Benedict has market position written all over it and i don't believe any money this early is confidence for a outright win for him so i would be questioning if people have suddenly took a shine to him when its just a trading movement.



i for one hope the money continues

[stevewoods]

After last nights show if Lydia is not evicted tonight something dodgy is going on!

[Verence]

Originally Posted by ZicoZ

Weird that the bookies have Lydia as favourite to go and yet she is much more popular than Victoria on all the forums .

They realise that most of the people who vote only watch the HL show and BOTS and none of Victoria's rows have been shown so as far as the wider voting public are concerned Victoria has been okay whereas Lydia had been in a paddy since she was nommed.

[k0213818]

Bookies odds as of 22:09
Lydia- 1.39
Victoria- 3.4
Conor- 21

Victoria has come in a lot from where she was this afternoon. Does somebody know something we don't?

[Salv*]

Oooh the salad.

[Janette800]

Originally Posted by ZicoZ

Weird that the bookies have Lydia as favourite to go and yet she is much more popular than Victoria on all the forums .

Totally agree...she seems more popular than Victoria...I hope Lydia go's tonight I can't put my finger on it but I don't like her

[field_442]

Did anyone manage to lay Lydia on betfair?

[chloedancer]

Originally Posted by chloedancer

is it just me or do victoria's eviction odds look amazing? conor will have women save him.lydia will have people wanting to see more of her hissy fits saving her.I cant see how victoria is going to pick up enough votes to stay.its vote to save,right?

thank you lydia voters

[stash22]

predictable result, this Vote To Save confuses the betting. Laid some money on Lydia at 1.20. Not risking much with that.

[oldtimer55]

Betting on specials markets is always fraught with danger.

[justj]

paddy power are calling rebecca. rachel
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelt...grp_ids=510293

[Verence]

To win odds on Betfair

Luke A 8.2 or 7/1
Rebecca 8.8 or 9/1
Benedict 9 or 8/1
Shievonne 10 or 9/1
Sara 14.5 or 13.5/1
Chris 15 or 14/1
Caroline 15.5 or 14.5/1
Conor 15.5 or 14.5/1
Lauren 16 or 15/1
Adam 18 or 17/1
Arron 23 or 22/1
Aisleigh 23 or 22/1
Scott 27 or 26/1
Luke S 32 or 31/1
Deana 44 or 43/1
Lydia 50 or 49/1

Caroline taking a bit of tumble presumably as a result of Victoriagate

[DUNDEEBOY]

Originally Posted by Verence

To win odds on Betfair

Luke A 8.2 or 7/1
Rebecca 8.8 or 9/1
Benedict 9 or 8/1
Shievonne 10 or 9/1
Chris 15 or 14/1
Caroline 15.5 or 14.5/1
Conor 15.5 or 14.5/1
Lauren 16 or 15/1
Adam 18 or 17/1
Arron 23 or 22/1
Aisleigh 23 or 22/1
Scott 27 or 26/1
Luke S 32 or 31/1
Deana 44 or 43/1
Lydia 50 or 49/1

Caroline taking a bit of tumble presumably as a result of Victoriagate

No odds on Sara

[meglosmurmurs]

I guess people are finding Luke A's secret fascinating again.

Sara seems to be capitalizing on some of the others drifting, she's in 5th place at about 13.8.

Interesting that Chris is still doing rather well. He's definitely straddling a line between loveable underdog and meddling gameplayer.

Take away Conor and I like everyone in the top half. Then again I only really dislike about 4 of them.

[Verence]

Originally Posted by DUNDEEBOY

No odds on Sara

I'm always forgetting about her which says a lot about the impact she's having on the show

Anyway, I've just edited my previous post to include her odds

[DUNDEEBOY]

Originally Posted by Verence

I'm always forgetting about her which says a lot about the impact she's having on the show

Anyway, I've just edited my previous post to include her odds

Her value has gone she will come to the surface more once a lot of the irritants have been evicted

[Verence]

Originally Posted by DUNDEEBOY

Her value has gone she will come to the surface more once a lot of the irritants have been evicted

There is that.

She probably hasn't done enough to upset enough HMs to be on the ticket for a good while yet.

[bigBro2011]

[quote=bigBro2011;58701380]ok from the below

as per previous post found on page 2 , and the follow up about benedict



you can lay Lydia,Victoria and Deana with confidence

victoria out in week 1 , i predict by week 5 all these will be eliminated

TRADE NOW BACK Shievonne to win @ 40+ and lay it off @ 20's , she will grow in popularity

EASY money now trading @just 10.0


TRADE NOW chris @15.5 , LAY around 8.0 ..... a few articles tipping him up but i really cant see this tip coming off at all ......he will become too annoying and his backstabbing will become his downfall after week 4 , his game plan doesn't sit well with my analysis of his personality (he is too excitable to carry it off well)


BACK Sara @22 and be happy to trade out single figures in future (semi - confident)


TRADING NOW @ 14.5 i have greened up on this trade as she isnt getting much air time at all it could be premature but ill take the money after for such a short term investment.


thats how i see it now all small stakes really as its far to early to place a decent wager.......


1 thing to note is the age of the winners being under 30 in recent years and that would have normally made me lay 2nd fav Bene(dick) in a heartbeat but he does seem somewhat interesting ATM


as soon as he hit fav i continued to lay him , if he does come in to 6.0 ill be playing BIG as its a false move.

the 2 against the field for outright win imo are lauren and luke A the problem is 2 fold though as they offer little value as of yet (price is about right to the actual chance of the event happening) and would like to see a few weeks of coverage and lock up some profit before i place the outright winner wager.


both drifting to a tempting price and confident i can get the true price i mentioned within a week



as predicted these 'talent/reality' series are easy money as long as you stay fluid and do not get greedy

gl to all who play

[k0213818]

After Saturday's episode:

Luke A- 8.4
Shievonne- 9
Benedict- 10.5
Becky- 11
Sara- 13.5
Caroline- 15.5
Conor- 15.5
Lauren- 17.5
Adam- 18
Luke S- 18
Chris- 20
Arron- 22
Ashleigh- 23
Scott- 26
Deana- 46
Lydia- 50

Rises in the odds for Luke S and Scott. A major fall (unsuprisingly) for Chris.
Luke A's position as favourite is very much a default position. I would expect Shievonne to move to favourite in the near future.

[Verence]

Originally Posted by k0213818

After Saturday's episode:

Luke A- 8.4
Shievonne- 9
Benedict- 10.5
Becky- 11
Sara- 13.5
Caroline- 15.5
Conor- 15.5
Lauren- 17.5
Adam- 18
Luke S- 18
Chris- 20
Arron- 22
Ashleigh- 23
Scott- 26
Deana- 46
Lydia- 50

Rises in the odds for Luke S and Scott. A major fall (unsuprisingly) for Chris.
Luke A's position as favourite is very much a default position. I would expect Shievonne to move to favourite in the near future.

I'm surprised Caroline didn't take more of a tumble

[casa_nova]

Last 2 in the house will be Rebecca and Benedict. - only one of these 2 will win.

Luke A stands no chance - he will not be nominated and get to the final but be one of the first out as he is really boring. (His secret is now out and tbh he might be a nice person and I couldn't care less he was born female, we live in the 21st centary afterall. But hes just got nothing particularly interesting to stay)

[k0213818]

Betting odds after Sunday's episode (in brackets is yesterday's odds)
Luke A- 9 (8.4)
Becky- 9.2 (11)
Shievonne- 10.5 (9)
Benedict- 11 (10.5)
Adam- 12 (18)
Sara- 16 (13.5)
Caroline- 16 (15.5)
Lauren- 16 (17.5)
Conor- 17 (15.5)
Scott- 17.5 (26)
Arron- 22 (22)
Luke S- 22 (18)
Ashleigh- 28 (23)
Chris- 30 (20)
Deana- 32 (46)
Lydia- 55 (50)

[meglosmurmurs]

Biggest riser is obviously Adam.

Right now I'm really liking Deana, if she shows some more of that dry wit then I hope to see her odds improve.

[djvizsla]

Just had a ton on Adam.