[Verence]

Originally Posted by meglosmurmurs

Biggest riser is obviously Adam.

Right now I'm really liking Deana, if she shows some more of that dry wit then I hope to see her odds improve.

I think Adam's odds will shorten even more after tomorrow's HLs when he's shown grassing up the pretty boys over their noms chat

[CLL Dodge]

Can't believe Luke A is favourite.

[Verence]

Originally Posted by CLL Dodge

Can't believe Luke A is favourite.

At the moment Betfair currently have Becky as a very narrow favourite (9 or 8/1) against Luke A (9.6 or 7/2)

[Master Ozzy]

I tell you what, Lydia is worth putting money on. Within a few days she's gone from being on the brink of eviction, to creating a group of people who might put up two of the big guns for eviction. She's playing the game, but she's starting to come across quite "normal" at the same time. I reckon if she's still there in 4 weeks time she'll be a fav.

[Lisa086]

I put a fiver on Lydia and fiver on Deana to win. Odds were at 50/1 and 40/1. I like betting in the first week or so, long before you can predict the winner- makes it more exciting!

[xfactorisgr8]

Originally Posted by Master Ozzy

I tell you what, Lydia is worth putting money on. Within a few days she's gone from being on the brink of eviction, to creating a group of people who might put up two of the big guns for eviction. She's playing the game, but she's starting to come across quite "normal" at the same time. I reckon if she's still there in 4 weeks time she'll be a fav.

If Lydia only stayed over Victoria by 1% I doubt she will win the whole thing

save your money!

[Verence]

Betfair

Becky 8.4 or 15/2
Luke A 10 or 9/1
Benedict 11.5 or 10.5/1
Shievonne 11.5 or 10.5/1
Adam 12.5 or 11.5/1
Caroline 16 or 15/1
Conor 17.5 or 16.5/1
Scott 17.5 or 16.5/1
Sara 18 or 17/1
Luke S 21 or 20/1
Lauren 21 or 20/1
Arron 27 or 26/1
Aisleigh 27 or 26/1
Deana 29 or 28/1
Chris 34 or 33/1
Lydia 42 or 41/1

[wappaho]

I don't think Becky can win, she's too like that other large one.
Deana's too like Shelpa.

I think Adam, Conor, Shev, Luke A, Scott, Benedict could all win.

The others will self-combust.

But I'd like Lauren or Caroline to win - posh tomboys, yeah!!

[Verence]

Originally Posted by wappaho

I don't think Becky can win, she's too like that other large one.
Deana's too like Shelpa.

I think Adam, Conor, Shev, Luke A, Scott, Benedict could all win.

The others will self-combust.

But I'd like Lauren or Caroline to win - posh tomboys, yeah!!

Becky's odds will probably take a bit of a tumble after tonight's HLs when they show Deana's reaction to her task.

Adam may become 2nd favourite behind Luke A after he is shown grassing up Team Brain Dead Pretty Boy over their plans to keep the fact that HMs were allowed to discuss noms a secret.

[wappaho]

I didn't look at the odds - I pretty much agree but I didn't realise Caroline would be so high up, I thought she irritated people. And Deana and Lydia seem really popular so I'm surprised they are so low down. If the metrosexuals get together - Ashleigh, Arran, Luke S, Sara (sadly) - they could pick off a few before they self-combust, maybe. Benedict and Caroline for example - too serious for the metros.

[meglosmurmurs]

I think if Lydia and Deana aren't up for eviction they'll get a bit of a boost in the odds. As popularity with the public isn't the only thing that determines the odds, it's if they can actually reach the end. Lydia and Deana look in a very dubious position right now, and may even be up head-to-head in which case one of them would definitely go, but if they begin to look more secure in the house then the odds will show it.
Meanwhile someone like Caroline looks very secure at the moment, there's not any reason to think why she would be nominated.

You can be as popular as you want but if you aren't going to reach the end and possibly win, then the bookies aren't going to put money on you winning.

[wappaho]

Originally Posted by meglosmurmurs

You can be as popular as you want but if you aren't going to reach the end and possibly win, then the bookies aren't going to put money on you winning.

What is it then, underlying ability to negotiate situations, ability to stay low profile - is that what people bet on? (assuming that the odds come from bets placed)

[k0213818]

It might be worth keeping an eye on who drifts out this afternoon, as that might give us a clue as to who's nominated.

[Salv*]

Honestly think Chris has the biggest drop ever from launch to Day 5? He was 2nd fave to win on launch.

[k0213818]

Originally Posted by Salv*

Honestly think Chris has the biggest drop ever from launch to Day 5? He was 2nd fave to win on launch.

Sophia had a big drop, second favourite to week 1 evictee. And correct me if I'm wrong I think Rebekah was last year's favourite to win on launch night

[meglosmurmurs]

Originally Posted by wappaho

What is it then, underlying ability to negotiate situations, ability to stay low profile - is that what people bet on? (assuming that the odds come from bets placed)

I'm no expert but I think at the moment it's also about how in danger they are of being nominated. Popularity with the public is first obviously, and next is popularity in the house. The bookies will be very dubious about putting money on housemates who may be forced to face eviction this early.

[wappaho]

Originally Posted by meglosmurmurs

I'm no expert but I think at the moment it's also about how in danger they are of being nominated. Popularity with the public is first obviously, and next is popularity in the house. The bookies will be very dubious about putting money on housemates who may be forced to face eviction this early.

I see.

[Verence]

Originally Posted by Verence

Betfair

Becky 8.4 or 15/2
Luke A 10 or 9/1
Benedict 11.5 or 10.5/1
Shievonne 11.5 or 10.5/1
Adam 12.5 or 11.5/1
Caroline 16 or 15/1
Conor 17.5 or 16.5/1
Scott 17.5 or 16.5/1
Sara 18 or 17/1
Luke S 21 or 20/1
Lauren 21 or 20/1
Arron 27 or 26/1
Aisleigh 27 or 26/1
Deana 29 or 28/1
Chris 34 or 33/1
Lydia 42 or 41/1

Update

Becky 7.6 or 13/2

Adam has shortened to 10 or 9/1

Chris has lengthened to 38 or 37/1

Everyone else is more or less the same as before.

[Verence]

Betfair

Adam 8.8 or 8/1
Luke 9.6 or 17/2
Becky 10.5 or 9.5/1
Shievonne 11 or 10/1
Benedict 11.5 or 10.5/1
Caroline 13 or 12/1
Sara 14 or 13/1
Scott 17 or 16/1
Conor 17.5 or 16.5/1
Lauren 18.5 or 17.5/1
Luke S 24 or 23/1
Ashleigh 26 or 25/1
Lydia 32 or 31/1
Deana 34 or 33/1
Arron 46 or 45/1
Chris 46 or 45/1

Eviction

Arron 1.34 or 1/3
Chris 1.5 or 1/2

Virtually neck and neck at the moment

[meglosmurmurs]

Yey Adam new favourite to win.
A very diverse group of people towards the top, whereas alot of those similar are in the middle/bottom.

Lydia seems to be shortening alot recently. I think avoiding nomination, and the fact that she is capturing alot of people's attention, is the reason. Voting to save will benefit her too, if she gets a decent sized fanbase and isn't up in a head-to-head eviction. She could sneak through a long way.

Meanwhile it really looks touch-and-go for Arron or Chris. The bookies really don't look too sure.

[Verence]

Originally Posted by meglosmurmurs

Meanwhile it really looks touch-and-go for Arron or Chris. The bookies really don't look too sure.

The eviction odds may well change a bit after tonight's HL show when we see Chris and Arron's reactions to be put up

[Verence]

Eviction odds after the HL show

Betfair

Arran 1.7 or 5/7
Chris 2.24 or 5/4

[Verence]

To win on Betfair

Becky 9.2 or 8/1
Adam 9.6 or 7/2
Luke A 10 or 9/1
Shievonne 10.5 or 9.5/1
Caroline 12.5 or 11.5/1
Conor 16.5 or 15.5/1
Sara 17 or 16/1
Benedict 18 or 17/1
Lauren 19 or 18/1
Ashleigh 20 or 19/1
Scott 20 or 19/1
Luke S 24 or 23/1
Deana 34 or 33/1
Chris 40 or 39/1
Arron 42 or 41/1
Lydia 44 or 43/1

[Verence]

Betfair

Chris 1.7 or 5/7
Arron 2.08 or 11/10

Win

Shievonne 9.4 or 17/2
Becky 9.4 or 17/2
Adam 10 or 9/1
Luke A 12 or 11/1
Caroline 13 or 12/1
Conor 16 or 15/1
Sara 17 or 16/1
Scott 17.5 or 16.5/1
Lauren 18 or 17/1
Luke S 19 or 18/1
Ashleigh 20 or 19/1
Benedict 25 or 24/1
Arron 34 or 33/1
Deana 36 or 35/1
Chris 40 or 39/1
Lydia 44 or 43/1

[k0213818]

Chris is a gonner after tonight. He clashed with the producer pet (and fan favourite) and Arron had a light-hearted task which made him come across and well and showcase his body.