[Salv*]

Originally Posted by IanT88

I thought Maxwell was the early favorite?

I thought it went Kemal-Maxwell-Makosi-Anthony.

[headaball]

Originally Posted by Salv*

I thought it went Kemal-Maxwell-Makosi-Anthony.

Derek was favourite to win at one point too.

[Gothic-Dude]

Just put a fiver on Denna winning, potential dark-horse, hope she dont walk now

[k0213818]

Update (17:30):

Caroline: 9
Adam: 10.5
Shievonne: 11
Luke A: 11.5
Luke S: 11.5
Lauren: 14.5
Conor: 15
Arron: 17
Sara: 17.5
Becky: 17.5
Scott: 19
Benedict: 20
Ashleigh: 28
Lydia: 42
Deana: 55

Luke S is beginning to emerge as my pick to win, he's relatively popular in the house, is popular with the tweens, has a showmance which is engaging for the casuals and may be the reciprient of a 'victim' status should the producers ramp up Ashleigh as a bunny boiler.

The drop in odds of Becky and Deana indicate that punters seem pretty convinced that these two will be up.

[Salv*]

Luke S I think has been one of the only people to have consistently gained momentum. I actually like him now.

[Verence]

Originally Posted by k0213818

Luke S is beginning to emerge as my pick to win, he's relatively popular in the house, is popular with the tweens, has a showmance which is engaging for the casuals and may be the reciprient of a 'victim' status should the producers ramp up Ashleigh as a bunny boiler.

The "bunny-boiling stalker" storyline certainly helped Anfernee to win BB6

[yohinnchild]

Betfair

Caroline = 7.6 (13/2)
Adam = 9.4 (17/2)
Luke S = 10.5 (9.5/1)
Shievonne = 12 (11/1)
Luke A = 13.5 (12.5/1)
Sara = 15.5 (14.5/1)
Arron = 16 (15/1)
Conor = 16 (15/1)
Lauren = 16.5 (15.5/1)
Scott = 17 (16/1)
Rebecca = 25 (24/1)
Ashleigh = 36 (35/1)
Lydia = 55 (54/1)
Deana = 65 (64/1)
Benedict = 65 (64/1)

[Gothic-Dude]

Yay Luke S

[Verence]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

Betfair

Caroline = 7.6 (13/2)
Adam = 9.4 (17/2)
Luke S = 10.5 (9.5/1)
Shievonne = 12 (11/1)
Luke A = 13.5 (12.5/1)
Sara = 15.5 (14.5/1)
Arron = 16 (15/1)
Conor = 16 (15/1)
Lauren = 16.5 (15.5/1)
Scott = 17 (16/1)
Rebecca = 25 (24/1)
Ashleigh = 36 (35/1)
Lydia = 55 (54/1)
Deana = 65 (64/1)
Benedict = 65 (64/1)

I think the punters are expecting Benedict to be up due to the fallout (for want of a better word) from his shower and bathroom activities

[k0213818]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

Betfair

Caroline = 7.6 (13/2)
Adam = 9.4 (17/2)
Luke S = 10.5 (9.5/1)
Shievonne = 12 (11/1)
Luke A = 13.5 (12.5/1)
Sara = 15.5 (14.5/1)
Arron = 16 (15/1)
Conor = 16 (15/1)
Lauren = 16.5 (15.5/1)
Scott = 17 (16/1)
Rebecca = 25 (24/1)
Ashleigh = 36 (35/1)
Lydia = 55 (54/1)
Deana = 65 (64/1)
Benedict = 65 (64/1)

With nominations most likely over it's time for a new update:
Caroline: 7.2 (Shortened)
Adam: 9.4 (No Change)
Luke S: 9.6 (Shortened)
Shievonne: 11.5 (Shortened)
Luke A: 13 (Shortened)
Conor: 14 (Shortened)
Sara: 15.5 (No Change)
Arron: 17.5 (Lengthened)
Lauren: 18 (Lengthened)
Scott: 18 (Lengthened)
Becky: 27 (Lengthened)
Ashleigh (No Change)
Benedict: 38 (Shortened)
Deana: 46 (Shortened)
Lydia: 50 (Shortened)

People who have lengthened since yesterday are Arron, Lauren, Scott and Becky. Are two of these four the nominees?

[Verence]

Originally Posted by k0213818

With nominations most likely over it's time for a new update:
Caroline: 7.2 (Shortened)
Adam: 9.4 (No Change)
Luke S: 9.6 (Shortened)
Shievonne: 11.5 (Shortened)
Luke A: 13 (Shortened)
Conor: 14 (Shortened)
Sara: 15.5 (No Change)
Arron: 17.5 (Lengthened)
Lauren: 18 (Lengthened)
Scott: 18 (Lengthened)
Becky: 27 (Lengthened)
Ashleigh (No Change)
Benedict: 38 (Shortened)
Deana: 46 (Shortened)
Lydia: 50 (Shortened)

People who have lengthened since yesterday are Arron, Lauren, Scott and Becky. Are two of these four the nominees?

None of them have lengthened to a significant degree though so I wouldn't read too much into it quite yet.

However if someone's odds took a massive tumble in the wrong direction in the next couple hours then I think it would be fair to guess that they were up. Take Benedict for example.. this time yesterday he was at 20 and now he's at 38. As I said before this would be as a result of people expecting him to be on the ticket due to FivefingeredshuffleGate.

[yohinnchild]

Caroline = 6.6 (11/2)
Adam = 8.4 (15/2)
Luke S = 10.5 (9.5/1)
Shievonne = 12.5 (11.5/1)
Conor = 13 (12/1)
Arron = 13.5 (12.5/1)
Luke A = 14 (13/1)
Sara = 16 (15/1)
Scott = 16.5 (15.5/1)
Lauren = 19.5 (18.5/1)
Rebecca = 23 (22/1)
Ashleigh = 32 (31/1)
Deana = 34 (33/1)
Lydia = 55 (54/1)
Benedict = 75 (74/1)

[Salv*]

Early eviction odds:

Benedict- 1.24
Lauren- 4

If Benedict leaves, it will be the first time ever where 2 males will be evicted in the first 3 weeks.

[yohinnchild]

Originally Posted by Salv*

Early eviction odds:

Benedict- 1.24
Lauren- 4

If Benedict leaves, it will be the first time ever where 2 males will be evicted in the first 3 weeks.

Sezer and Sam in BB7 left in the 1st 3 weeks - I know Sam perceived herself as a Woman, however she was a man when she entered the house

[Verence]

Benedict 1.25 or 1/4
Lauren 4.6 or 7/2

[Trumbles]

I know this has been touched on, but can anyone explain to me how the bloody hell Caroline is at such (relatively) short odds to win? She's at 5/1 with PaddyPower and StanJames! Obviously that's still long for a favourite even at this stage, but nevertheless...

Is it just the strong historical performance of bitchy posh girls like Grace and Bea? Has anyone bet on her? Can anyone imagine her sitting in the winner's chair?

[AA2009]

Caroline had a few good shows (crying about Scott's news, the date with Chris) that briefly made her the most popular housemate on forums...I don't think she'll be favourite to win for the rest of the series.

[Salv*]

No idea how the hell Caroline is fave.

[bingoes]

Originally Posted by Trumbles

I know this has been touched on, but can anyone explain to me how the bloody hell Caroline is at such (relatively) short odds to win? She's at 5/1 with PaddyPower and StanJames! Obviously that's still long for a favourite even at this stage, but nevertheless...

Is it just the strong historical performance of bitchy posh girls like Grace and Bea? Has anyone bet on her? Can anyone imagine her sitting in the winner's chair?

I'm not a fan of hers but after watching tonight, I think she is playing a very smart game. She is in with the 'right' group, she is playing that fun, wacky, sometimes gormless housemate. Her upperclass accent works for her, as it is a novelty factor and does come across as funny. She doesn't care what she looks like. She said tonight that she is the 'token' plain housemate, so there is the sympathy vote for you. She also comes across as a whinger when doing the tasks, eating the eyeball and tonight the sleep task. Together with all this she has been quite influential with her opinions or moaning about people she doesn't llike and they are the ones that go up for eviction, Chris, Benedict, Lauren. Her next target is Becky and she just managed to get that in the net before the rule change.

She is a mixture of past winners or favourite housemates, Josie, Nicky Graham, Sophie.

[stargazer61]

Originally Posted by Salv*

No idea how the hell Caroline is fave.

She isn't anymore. Has dropped today from favourite to third favourite to win and will probably continue to drop over the next couple of days

[Paace]

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...brother/winner

Oddschecker is probably more accurate as it gives all the bookies including Betfair.

Benedict is closing on Lauren.

[yohinnchild]

Betfair (odds to win)

Adam = 9 (8/1)
Shievonne = 9.6 (17/2)
Arron = 10 (9/1)
Caroline = 11 (10/1)
Conor = 13 (12/1)
Luke A = 13.5 (12.5/1)
Luke S = 14 (13/1)
Scott = 15.5 (14.5/1)
Rebecca = 17 (16/1)
Lauren = 18.5 (17.5/1)
Sara = 19 (18/1)
Benedict = 29 (28/1)
Deana = 34 (33/1)
Ashleigh = 36 (35/1)
Lydia = 55 (54/1)

[k0213818]

Originally Posted by yohinnchild

Betfair (odds to win)

Adam = 9 (8/1)
Shievonne = 9.6 (17/2)
Arron = 10 (9/1)
Caroline = 11 (10/1)
Conor = 13 (12/1)
Luke A = 13.5 (12.5/1)
Luke S = 14 (13/1)
Scott = 15.5 (14.5/1)
Rebecca = 17 (16/1)
Lauren = 18.5 (17.5/1)
Sara = 19 (18/1)
Benedict = 29 (28/1)
Deana = 34 (33/1)
Ashleigh = 36 (35/1)
Lydia = 55 (54/1)

Worrying to see Arron so high in the betting, even though he is a bit UTR right now I think there is a nasty side to him.

As for the eviction odds:
Benedict- 1.46
Lauren- 2.3

[Verence]

Betfair eviction

Benedict 1.46
Lauren 2.3

Gap narrowingly considerably

[Trumbles]

Originally Posted by bingoes

I'm not a fan of hers but after watching tonight, I think she is playing a very smart game. She is in with the 'right' group, she is playing that fun, wacky, sometimes gormless housemate. Her upperclass accent works for her, as it is a novelty factor and does come across as funny. She doesn't care what she looks like. She said tonight that she is the 'token' plain housemate, so there is the sympathy vote for you. She also comes across as a whinger when doing the tasks, eating the eyeball and tonight the sleep task. Together with all this she has been quite influential with her opinions or moaning about people she doesn't llike and they are the ones that go up for eviction, Chris, Benedict, Lauren. Her next target is Becky and she just managed to get that in the net before the rule change.

She is a mixture of past winners or favourite housemates, Josie, Nicky Graham, Sophie.

You make a lot of good points. In general though I don't think HMs can get away with bitching for long unless they're very funny or very subtle with it (and preferably male). Caroline can be funny but not enough imo. Nor is she someone easy for a lot of people to relate to.

Adam as the favourite makes more sense. Interesting that his odds haven't actually shortened at all, just Caroline's have slipped past his.

I still think Luke A is in with a shot. His odds are about the only ones which look tempting to me atm.