[SouthCity]

"Global Radio, the largest commercial radio operator in the UK, is thought to have submitted largest offer."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012...radio-business

[Mapperley Ridge]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012...radio-business

The group is officially up for sale.

So, if Global (a) has the cash and (b) wins the bid, what next for Smooth and Real?

[Mapperley Ridge]

Haha - you beat me to it - had just posted a duplicate thread!

[SouthCity]

Perhaps the mods can merge the threads. The article doesn't confirm that Global or UTV have made bids so it's all very speculative.

Personally i think Global will struggle to get this through Ofcom's competition review without having to make some disposals of their existing assets.

[Shrewn]

Blimey, this could change the landscape. Interesting

[Mapperley Ridge]

I think you have a good point. However, they could realign Smooth's format slightly - perhaps veering towards older/oldies track - hey - even roll out Gold on FM and dispose of costly AM. The current line up on Smooth fits well with Gold's demographic. Three strong quasi national brands on FM, DAB and TV. Again, there might be ownership hurdles in some markets.

[soulboy77]

Everyone is assuming Global are one of the bidders but I'm not so sure in this tough economic climate that they would want to extend themselves further. Also, I'm not so sure how the regulatory authorities would view then acquisition of GMG, certainly they would probably make Global off load a number of their stations in certain localities, if they let it go ahead.

[radiodad]

While i can see this happening it will make the landscape very different indeed as global will have to do like in the midlands and sell off some of there stations. While i think Global will most likely be the top bidder for GMG it will be very interesting who will snap up some of the sites global dispose of. My personal bet is UTV, while they wont pay enough to stop global getting GMG i think they will snap up a number of the lisances that Global have to dispose of.

Will GMG sell out though ? Who knows, but i bet there's a fair few nervous people at GMG this morning.

[omnidirectional]

Originally Posted by Mapperley Ridge

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012...radio-business

The group is officially up for sale.

So, if Global (a) has the cash and (b) wins the bid, what next for Smooth and Real?

If Global emerges as the winner..

Real would become Heart, the only issue would be in North Wales where Heart already exists.

I've previously disliked the idea of Real selling out to Heart, but now would be the right time since Real has totally lost the plot over the last few months.

The future of Smooth is harder to predict. It's a good station doing well in markets like the North West but doesn't fit with Global's existing portfolio.

As for Real Radio XS.. XFM Gold?! Or more likely closed/sold.

[Shrewn]

Originally Posted by omnidirectional

If Global emerges as the winner..

Real would become Heart, the only issue would be in North Wales where Heart already exists.

I've previously disliked the idea of Real selling out to Heart, but now would be the right time since Real has totally lost the plot over the last few months.

The future of Smooth is harder to predict. It's a good station doing well in markets like the North West but doesn't fit with Global's existing portfolio.

As for Real Radio XS.. XFM Gold?! Or more likely closed/sold.

Bauer could pick up the old Marcher stations as they would fit in geographically i guess

[hanssolo]

The Guardian also says
"GMG, which has built up the UK's third largest radio group with acquisitions totalling in excess of £200m, is not thought to have officially raised the "for sale" sign over GMG Radio."
Looks like Absolute did and are just finding out what the group is worth but does say it still runs at a loss!
GMG paid £44m for Jazz FM plus the cost of the ex Saga stations (£70m?) and £60m for Century so can't see them selling for a total of £50m?

They might do a merge deal with Global over Real and Heart?

[Bingethink]

Originally Posted by Mapperley Ridge

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012...radio-business

The group is officially up for sale.

Er, no.

GMG, which has built up the UK's third largest radio group with acquisitions totalling in excess of £200m, is not thought to have officially raised the "for sale" sign over GMG Radio.

[Bingethink]

Originally Posted by hanssolo

Looks like Absolute did and are just finding out what the group is worth but does say it still runs at a loss!
GMG paid £44m for Jazz FM plus the cost of the ex Saga stations (£70m?) and £60m for Century so can't see them selling for a total of £50m?

The media landscape has changed irrevocably - a factor lots of DS posters ignore when they say how certain licences "must be" making a huge profit.

What GMG paid for the assets in the boom times is irrelevant if they'll never get that back. Can GMG make better use of £50m than holding it in a loss-making business?

[Passengers]

Originally Posted by Bingethink

...Can GMG make better use of £50m than holding it in a loss-making business?

They'll probably use it prop up The Guardian which is losing money hand-over-fist.

[Inkblot]

Originally Posted by Bingethink

Can GMG make better use of £50m than holding it in a loss-making business?

They could buy every Guardian reader an iPad and close the print edition.

[Harris Tweed]

£50m would be a REALLY low price (ie Global picking up a hatful of regionals and a successful quasi-national, entirely free of local content obligations for, what, 50 per cent more than they earnt from flogging 4 locals and a regional to Orion?)

So it depends how much GMG (the parent group) need the money. But if they go for it, it would be a bit of a fire sale and demonstrate pretty clearly the state the industry and the economy are in.

However, for Global, it would be an excellent deal, and I should imagine it's an easy sell to their bankers/backers. Reals converted to Hearts with little Ofcom agro (and indeed, they could start to look at a national network among London and all those regionals, keeping the existing opts in the smaller FM regions). They'd probably have some issues with the Competition Commission in places, although tbh Bauer is a strong opponent in most of the markets and most local issues would already be there for GMG (eg places where Real/Smooth co-exist). Wouldn't losing Marcher and maybe Red Dragon solve most of it? It would give Heart pretty massive FM coverage of England. Maybe there'd be a bigger issue with national sales/audience domination? Give up some Capital/Xfm/Choice licences to Bauer to strengthen their networks?

Adding Smooth to the brand stable of Capital/Heart/Classic would be massive too.. with the option of a Gold merger one way or the other. It might also put some more clear blue water between Heart/Smooth (and if it survives separately, Gold) and increase listener choice.

UTV also interesting, but I'm not sure the it's the same obvious fit (ie it's a great way of making UTV bigger.. but do they gain as much without the existing networks to merge?)

Anyway.. as others have said.. all a bit speculative, and I'm not sure it's a realistic price. But interesting times ahead if it happens.

[AlanO]

Originally Posted by Inkblot

They could buy every Guardian reader an iPad and close the print edition.

Waste of money - pretty much every Guardian reader seems to have one already.

Probably something to do with The Graun's slavish hero worship of everything that St Steve Jobs ever touched.

Frankly if the guy had put an Apple badge on a dog turd the Graun would have hailed it as the next big tech event.

[Martin Phillp]

If it's Global who finally acquire GMG.

Smooth reverts to the Gold format and merges with Gold, but keeps GMG presenters such as Simon Bates, Mark Goodier, David Jensen and Pat Sharp which is a no brainer. Smooth also moves into LSQ. Gold then hands in AM licences where there's FM duplication. This would affect London, Manchester, Nottingham/Mansfield and Wrexham/Chester.

Real rebrands as Heart. However, they may have to sell stations in the North West and North Wales, these could go to UTV to rebrand as Signal or local investors.

Real XS rebrands as the currently defunct soft rock brand The Arrow in Manchester and hands the Paisley licence back to Ofcom.

[HaggisSupper]

Sounds like a 'Clinton Cards' job - sold off for a pittance to more venture capatalists to clear debt owed to the predator itself.

Someone somewhere seems hellbent on the 'ITV-ing' of UK commercial radio - one big homogenous 'national' company ripe for eventuel flogging off to even more foreners with a few smaller stragglers to make it look as 'competition' actually exists with the existance of a bullied BBC as theyre excuse for the chopping off of the balls of what was once ILR.

Even the french have half-a-dozen BIG national radio groups as well as their state-owned system and I bet they won't ever let a 'British' buyer ever get near theyre national radio assetts.

[Terry Purvis]

Yes, things are very different in France, see this story about Sea France coming back into operation, for instance.

"The tribunal in Paris awarded the assets on the condition the shipping company operated under the French flag and Eurotunnel leased the ships to a workers' co-operative."

A decision here like that from Ofcom would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.

[Bangers]

Originally Posted by Martin Phillp

If it's Global who finally acquire GMG.

Smooth reverts to the Gold format and merges with Gold, but keeps GMG presenters such as Simon Bates, Mark Goodier, David Jensen and Pat Sharp which is a no brainer. Smooth also moves into LSQ. Gold then hands in AM licences where there's FM duplication. This would affect London, Manchester, Nottingham/Mansfield and Wrexham/Chester.

Real rebrands as Heart. However, they may have to sell stations in the North West and North Wales, these could go to UTV to rebrand as Signal or local investors.

Real XS rebrands as the currently defunct soft rock brand The Arrow in Manchester and hands the Paisley licence back to Ofcom.

I would have thought Smooth is a bigger brand than Gold. Make the Gold stations Smooth. Where there is overlap put out The Arrow/Chill/ANother instead of handing back the AMs. Rebrand Real XS to XFM.

[Martin Phillp]

Originally Posted by Bangers

I would have thought Smooth is a bigger brand than Gold. Make the Gold stations Smooth. Where there is overlap put out The Arrow/Chill/ANother instead of handing back the AMs. Rebrand Real XS to XFM.

Alas why I said use the Gold format and not necessarily the brand, although Global would need to look at the NW market where the current Smooth format is successful. However Heart should raise the Rajar of the fledgeling Real 105.4.

You can't rebrand XS as Xfm where there's already one in the Manchester market which is why the The Arrow would compliment it. It also wouldn't require a format change, nor change in XS's current live breakfast/drive and semi automated daytime.

[simon243]

Originally Posted by Bingethink

Er, no.

GMG Radio may not be officially for sale yet, but it's surely only a matter of time.

GCap's chairman Richard Eyre was quoted in the FT in January 2008 as saying the company wasn't for sale. 3 months later Global bought it.

With financial stories like this, there is rarely smoke without fire. It may not happen immediately but it will happen.

The big question isn't if, but who.

[simon243]

Originally Posted by Mapperley Ridge

So, if Global (a) has the cash and (b) wins the bid, what next for Smooth and Real?

Global must be hot favourites.

It's the perfect fit - apart from North Wales there's no real overlap between Real and Heart - and Global already has premises in all Real's TSAs (Yorkshire, North East, Manchester, Scotland and Wales) so the cost savings would be significant.

Smooth would become Gold, giving it FM coverage in most major markets (Global are too arrogant to ditch one of their own brands). And Real XS - well those would probably be sold along with whatever else they'd need to ditch to appease the OFT. They might sacrifice Xfm, Choice and possibly LBC if it meant having 4 national or semi-national brands on FM.

[Jonathan_Gold]

Originally Posted by Martin Phillp

If it's Global who finally acquire GMG.

Smooth reverts to the Gold format and merges with Gold, but keeps GMG presenters such as Simon Bates, Mark Goodier, David Jensen and Pat Sharp which is a no brainer. Smooth also moves into LSQ. Gold then hands in AM licences where there's FM duplication. This would affect London, Manchester, Nottingham/Mansfield and Wrexham/Chester.

Real rebrands as Heart. However, they may have to sell stations in the North West and North Wales, these could go to UTV to rebrand as Signal or local investors.

Real XS rebrands as the currently defunct soft rock brand The Arrow in Manchester and hands the Paisley licence back to Ofcom.

Why not turn Heart NW into Capital ?