[mjdj1689]

Originally Posted by GORTONIAN

In Manchester we already have Smooth NW and smooth Uk duplicating broadcasts on the local and regional DAB feeds. Gold the same ...As we already had Heart on dab in effect we will be worse off for choice..
.

Sorry I should have said the North West area. as there are so many repeats. I can see the Absolute stations coming . but I suppose sadly 64k mono for Absolute Classic Rock only on the Manchester multiplex.

I bet all the Heart pi codes will change also for Yorkshire and the North East as they are inter linked at the moment.

[jimbo]

Originally Posted by GORTONIAN

In Manchester we already have Smooth NW and smooth Uk duplicating broadcasts on the local and regional DAB feeds. Gold the same ...As we already had Heart on dab in effect we will be worse off for choice.. and as for Hit the remark about him and his mates being down the pub made me laugh. There was only him who wanted the station on fm in the first place.
A black day for uk Radio indeed: My thoughts with the talented staff and presenters who are now without a job and their familys.Ive many friends in the business and feel very sorry for them.

I agree. Just to clarify it was not me who originally suggested Gold could be on VHF, but I thought of it as a way of pleasing the regulators by disposing of the MW licences.

[wavejockglw]

Originally Posted by mjdj1689

I wonder what will happen to all the spare dab slots that will happen because of this ?

Those should provide a great opportunity for the range of DAB services to be expanded. Country, Dance, Easy Listening and Talk services could be established.

[Bingethink]

Originally Posted by jimbo

I agree. Just to clarify it was not me who originally suggested Gold could be on VHF, but I thought of it as a way of pleasing the regulators by disposing of the MW licences.

The OFT / Competition Commission will be looking at share of advertising spend, not number of licences, so in most caes, the disposal of a low-rating AM licence will not be significant.

[Bingethink]

Originally Posted by wavejockglw

Those should provide a great opportunity for the range of DAB services to be expanded. Country, Dance, Easy Listening and Talk services could be established.

A time when the biggest group has consolidated further, stripping costs out of its business, making it more competitive for advertisers and more difficult for other groups to compete is possibly not the best time to be launching expensive new niche digital radio services...

[wavejockglw]

Originally Posted by Bingethink

A time when the biggest group has consolidated further, stripping costs out of its business, making it more competitive for advertisers and more difficult for other groups to compete is possibly not the best time to be launching expensive new niche digital radio services...

Possibly but it never ceases to amaze me that such variety is viable on satellite TV!

[Peter the Great]

Originally Posted by simon243

To be fair, back in the mid-90s when the Radio Authority gave practically every town that wanted one its own station, there was a lot more money around and the internet - which now accounts for more than a quarter of all advertising - barely existed.

I doubt even Mystic Meg could have predicted where we'd be 15 years later but at the time all those Sallies did seem sustainable. It's only with the benefit of hindsight that we can say otherwise.

But yes, you're right - the free market is now correcting that. It's only the dinosaurs and anoraks who think standalone local stations should remain. Everyone else is a bit more realistic.

Nonsense.Most of the small scale stations should have been given to non profit community stations. What is the point of a load of low powered transmitters broadcasting the same thing?

[SouthCity]

Originally Posted by bingoman

Would they be forced to sell Capital East Midlands or West Midlands and Gold East Midmland to satisfy The CC

I think the most likely outcome here is that Global will be forced to sell all of the Smooth network, Capital South Wales & Heart North Wales. They may volunteer to sell Real XS but it isn't that important in the competition review.

They would then end up with the Real network (to rebrand to Heart) and this should satisfy the competition authorities.

The AM stations don't really have much influence on the advertising market.

[Peter the Great]

Originally Posted by wavejockglw

Possibly but it never ceases to amaze me that such variety is viable on satellite TV!

Exatcly. it is viable if the right people run a station. Sadly most of them probably haven't got deep enough pockets to start a station and getting an FM licence in this Country is near impossible. Planet Rock is pure example of how a specialist station can be successful if run by the right people.

[SouthCity]

Originally Posted by Peter the Great

Planet Rock is pure example of how a specialist station can be successful if run by the right people.

It isn't because it's loss-making and being kept on-air by funding from its rich owner, Malcolm Bluemel, who has pumped about £2 million of his own money into the business.

There is no prospect of Planet Rock making a profit as a standalone station in the short term. A sale to one of the groups (probably Absolute) looks highly likely.

[Black Label]

Originally Posted by p_c_u_k

I wonder whether the football phone-in will come back after summer. Seems a bit pointless to have it for half the season, but I suppose they have to give the perception they're running the station differently to Heart, and there will be contracts to see out.

50/50 I'd say. Derek Johnstone will no doubt have been poached from Clyde on a tight contract so as you say I suppose they are as well as having him commentate on Rangers' travails in the first division or wherever the first few months of the season

[Harris Tweed]

Originally Posted by SouthCity

I think the most likely outcome here is that Global will be forced to sell all of the Smooth network, Capital South Wales & Heart North Wales. They may volunteer to sell Real XS but it isn't that important in the competition review.

They would then end up with the Real network (to rebrand to Heart) and this should satisfy the competition authorities.

The AM stations don't really have much influence on the advertising market.

My bet is they'll get away with selling much less than that, unless Bauer, UTV and Absolute score some direct hits with the OFT or MPs on the state of the national market (and if I was a free-market Tory, I'd tell them to merge and set up their own rival brands for a proper ding-dong with their 40+ per cent of the market.)

Although £70m minus the on-sell value of those stations still wouldn't be a bad deal for Global in terms of Heart's reach, I think they'll be betting on keeping a fair chunk of Smooth, citing well-established competition in local markets. Certainly in the north & Scotland where Bauer has the strong heritage brands and sales teams, and maybe even the Midlands if Orion's deemed to be a significant player. East Mids is probably most at risk.. especially if there's any danger of Heart going up against Gem instead of an older station.

I agree about most or all of the Welsh divestments - I don't think Cardiff's a given, but everything in the north is an issue; and absolutely with your point about AM's importance or otherwise (although I do wonder if this might hasten that medium's demise).

In Global v GCap, most of the licences were already heritage market leaders. That's not generally the case with Real and Smooth, which I think makes the competition question in local markets easier. If there's a fly in the ointment, it'll be national share of advertising. Though as others have said, even the whole of radio is small beer if you consider it against TV and newspapers.

[Harris Tweed]

Originally Posted by Black Label

50/50 I'd say. Derek Johnstone will no doubt have been poached from Clyde on a tight contract so as you say I suppose they are as well as having him commentate on Rangers' travails in the first division or wherever the first few months of the season

Whatever happens in August, I'd be stunned if a football commentary appears on a Heart-branded station after relaunch. And given Rangers' current issues, I should imagine any existing rights contract is null and void... and I wouldn't lay bets on a new one being signed.

[AllBran]

Originally Posted by SouthCity

I think the most likely outcome here is that Global will be forced to sell...Heart North Wales

I somehow don't think this will happen. It's not a massive ad market, and could only sustain the Marcher stations for 20 odd years.

Real's North and Mid Wales Rajar figures are disappointing to say the least. Something like 20,000 listeners north of Brecon.

In terms of advertising share up there, I don't think Global would have a monopoly, and papers like the Daily Post are still very strong rivals for that ad spend.

South Wales might be different... but then Global was allowed Red Dragon, Gold and Xfm...

Maybe Global will run the Real licence properly -- ie, North and South Wales separately... now there's an idea. But would it be enough to keep the Oft happy? Hmm.

[Peter the Great]

Originally Posted by SouthCity

It isn't because it's loss-making and being kept on-air by funding from its rich owner, Malcolm Bluemel, who has pumped about £2 million of his own money into the business.

There is no prospect of Planet Rock making a profit as a standalone station in the short term. A sale to one of the groups (probably Absolute) looks highly likely.

Wrong. It looks like for the first time Planet Rock could be breaking even and if more people had access to digital it could be making a profit. Also I can't see why Absolute would want the station?

[SouthCity]

Originally Posted by Peter the Great

Wrong. It looks like for the first time Planet Rock could be breaking even

According to their published accounts Planet Rock Limited made a loss of £236,000 for the year ended 31 December 2011.

That's nowhere near breaking even.

[Andy Herne]

Originally Posted by AllBran

I somehow don't think this will happen. It's not a massive ad market, and could only sustain the Marcher stations for 20 odd years.

Real's North and Mid Wales Rajar figures are disappointing to say the least. Something like 20,000 listeners north of Brecon.

In terms of advertising share up there, I don't think Global would have a monopoly, and papers like the Daily Post are still very strong rivals for that ad spend.

South Wales might be different... but then Global was allowed Red Dragon, Gold and Xfm...

Maybe Global will run the Real licence properly -- ie, North and South Wales separately... now there's an idea. But would it be enough to keep the Oft happy? Hmm.

As mentioned in my previous post, why would Global want to sell the former Marcher group? If they are forced to sell then they will decouple the north/mid wales licence from Real's south and west licence and sell on or hand over to ofcom. The reach of the north Wales licence is so small that although it probably wouldn't affect competition rules Global may not see the value in retaining it.

Also, the sale of Capital South Wales isn't a given. Global will fight tooth and nail to keep it. The fact that the licence is currently underperforming is a good thing for Global.

[Harris Tweed]

Originally Posted by Andy Herne

As mentioned in my previous post, why would Global want to sell the former Marcher group? If they are forced to sell then they will decouple the north/mid wales licence from Real's south and west licence and sell on or hand over to ofcom.

I suspect that, even before it gets to the Competition Commission, Ofcom will insist on the unloading of one or the other. For most of that area, Global and GMG are the only commercial operators (certainly in terms of formal coverage areas).. and that's Ofcom's test.

I agree it may be Real rather than Heart's existing frequencies they surrender (though they'll want to consider whether the greater coverage of Real's transmitters makes a swap worthwhile).

Indeed, even a solution which sees it handing back one or other licence may not be ideal, as it would still leave Global with a monopoly in a market where there was competition.

[Martin Phillp]

Originally Posted by SouthCity

According to their published accounts Planet Rock Limited made a loss of £236,000 for the year ended 31 December 2011.

That's nowhere near breaking even.

Indeed and PR have started to charge a yearly subscription for premium content and an ad free high quality webstream.

[northantsgirl]

Originally Posted by Harris Tweed

I agree it may be Real rather than Heart's existing frequencies they surrender (though they'll want to consider whether the greater coverage of Real's transmitters makes a swap worthwhile).

If they swap Heart to the Real frequencies they will be able to lose (what they will see as) the pesky requirement for Welsh language programmes for Gwynedd/Anglesey and North Wales Coast areas and not need to have separate local programmes for both Gwynedd/Anglesey and the Coast/Wrexham and Deeside areas.
I wonder if they are mulling over whether to retain the Wirral frequency for Capital Merseyside.

[Emma_Johnson1]

Another Option not mentioned

The existing LBC in London becomes a National Talk Channel to compete with Radio 5 Live and Talksport.

In London use existing FM frequency.

In Manchester use Real Radio XS FM frequency.

In Southern England use the existing Gold AM frequencies
(Smooth and Gold will become one on FM and Dab nationwide).

The rest of the country receiving DAB/Freeview/Freesat/Sky and Virgin.

Benefits

Little cost to Global they alreay run LBC London 24/7.

The Regulators and the Government would be pleased with the creation of a much needed national talk channel.( they were delighted when channel 4 were looking at this a few years ago)

The advertisers would be pleased with the creation of this channel especially being broadcast on FM in the 2 most important radio markets on the UK London and Manchester.

Just a thought

[Martin Phillp]

Originally Posted by Emma_Johnson1

Another Option not mentioned

The existing LBC in London becomes a National Talk Channel to compete with Radio 5 Live and Talksport.

It'd require a format change and probably wouldn't be as profitable as keeping Smooth with another revamp to it's format to become a Motown/Soul slanted Magic London or as Gold.

Even if all of Smooth's FM frequencies were switched, LBC still wouldn't have the majority of UK analogue coverage, which talkSPORT and 5 Live have on AM.

[omnidirectional]

Originally Posted by northantsgirl

If they swap Heart to the Real frequencies they will be able to lose (what they will see as) the pesky requirement for Welsh language programmes for Gwynedd/Anglesey and North Wales Coast areas and not need to have separate local programmes for both Gwynedd/Anglesey and the Coast/Wrexham and Deeside areas.
I wonder if they are mulling over whether to retain the Wirral frequency for Capital Merseyside.

They couldn't keep Wirral 97.1 alone, as it's annexed to the Wrexham 103.4 licence.

Personally I think they'll sell the Marcher stations mainly for the reasons you give above; especially to free themselves from the Welsh commitments on the former Champion frequency which involves extra local shows/news - unless they just got rid of Champion/Coast and turned MFM/Buzz into Capital.

[simon243]

Originally Posted by Emma_Johnson1

Another Option not mentioned

The existing LBC in London becomes a National Talk Channel to compete with Radio 5 Live and Talksport.

Nice idea but I can't see it somehow. LBC's more expensive to run and not as profitable as the music stations.

No, if I were Global my opening gambit to the OfT would be: divest Choice, LBC and LBC News in London, Xfm and Gold AM in London & Manchester, Real XS in Manchester & Glasgow and Real in North Wales in exchange for being allowed to keep all the other Real and Smooth licences.

It may not be enough but Global's primary aim will be to have 4 national or semi-national music brands (Capital, Heart, Classic and Gold) on as many frequencies as possible. In the grand scheme of things LBC, Xfm, Choice and Real XS are small fry and easily dispensable.

[Martin Phillp]

LBC's two stations would also be a good fit for UTV and would easily compliment each other with talkSPORT.