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2G Network Closure
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Everything Goes
30-04-2015
Ovum Predicts Mobile Operators Could Switch Off 2G and 3G by 2020

While other countries are ready for 2G switch off and or have already done it the UK operators have remained silent on the subject. A bit of gazing into the crystal ball by Ovum has made them predict it will happen in 2020. Including 3G switch off.

Quote:
“Ovum Principal Analyst, Nicole McCormick, said:

“The majority of operators are not in a position today to close their legacy networks, nor will they be in the next 1–2 years. Rather, operators are deciding how to best manage a transition towards full network closure, given that M2M, voice, and roaming revenue cannibalization remains a pertinent issue. We don’t expect networks to be retired en masse until closer to 2020.

Ovum believes that in some markets 3G networks may see closure before 2G ones. 2G is still an important source of revenue. LTE provides a better mobile broadband experience than 3G, and with VoLTE, LTE can handle the voice responsibilities of 3G. This points to the possibility that operators opt to close their 3G networks before they close 2G.””

http://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php...g-by-2020.html
alanwarwic
30-04-2015
I'd imagine they will simply narrow the bands as usage falls.

That way they lower the power on the kit cover all angles and get to use the remainder for 4G.
Also, they will need Ofcom approval.
Denco1
30-04-2015
Surely 2020 is too soon. VoLTE phones account for a tiny fraction of LTE phones sold, and how many M2M devices are LTE compatible?
I'm sure smart meters are not going to be installed across the UK to be soon after replaced again with 4G compatible meters.

I can see some 1800MHz and 2100MHz being refarmed for 4G but perhaps Vodafone and 3/O2 will leave 900MHz as it is for 2G/3G as the 700MHz auction will be soon.

I wonder if 2G/3G will remain for longer in places where capacity isn't so important, such as those where 4G+ isn't being rolled out.
Everything Goes
30-04-2015
Originally Posted by Denco1:
“Surely 2020 is too soon. VoLTE phones account for a tiny fraction of LTE phones sold, and how many M2M devices are LTE compatible?
I'm sure smart meters are not going to be installed across the UK to be soon after replaced again with 4G compatible meters.

I can see some 1800MHz and 2100MHz being refarmed for 4G but perhaps Vodafone and 3/O2 will leave 900MHz as it is for 2G/3G as the 700MHz auction will be soon.

I wonder if 2G/3G will remain for longer in places where capacity isn't so important, such as those where 4G+ isn't being rolled out.”

Smartmeters have been an epic fail. Only 1 million meter have been installed so far and its been plagued with problems.

Even M2M contracts have a time limit and do not run indefinitely.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/eart...esh-delay.html
swb1964
30-04-2015
I don't think it will happen as soon as 2020. I'll bet their are quite a lot of older users who have no interest in Smartphones, but wouldn't be without their mobile phone. Nor are they neccessarily light users, many OAPs are on their phones quite a bit, and many will be on high cost PAYG tariffs. If they are on bundles they probably won't use the data element, making them potentially quite profitable customers.

The networks won't want to replace lots of reasonably happy paying customers with unhappy ex ones.

Of course it will happen, but I'm not so sure about 2020. 2G phones are still being sold in reasonable numbers even now.

Is there such a thing as a 4G dumbphone?
DevonBloke
30-04-2015
Probably not but by 2020 there will be loads of cheap £35 4G smartphones on Amazon.
All VoLTE capable and so perfect for PAYG grannies.
Everything Goes
30-04-2015
Originally Posted by swb1964:
“I don't think it will happen as soon as 2020. I'll bet their are quite a lot of older users who have no interest in Smartphones, but wouldn't be without their mobile phone. Nor are they neccessarily light users, many OAPs are on their phones quite a bit, and many will be on high cost PAYG tariffs. If they are on bundles they probably won't use the data element, making them potentially quite profitable customers.

The networks won't want to replace lots of reasonably happy paying customers with unhappy ex ones.

Of course it will happen, but I'm not so sure about 2020. 2G phones are still being sold in reasonable numbers even now.

Is there such a thing as a 4G dumbphone?”

There are very few 2G only phones being sold these days. O2 is the only network with a huge number of legacy customers. They have approx 50% smatrphone penetration. All the others are way ahead.
omnidirectional
30-04-2015
EE have been doing a big "2G refesh" over the last few years, replacing old 2G systems with newer technology. I'm not sure if it's complete or still ongoing, but they must be confident that 2G has a few more years ahead of it.
swb1964
30-04-2015
Originally Posted by omnidirectional:
“EE have been doing a big "2G refesh" over the last few years, replacing old 2G systems with newer technology.”

What new technology is there for 2G?

I thought 2G was basically 2G and that was that?
moox
30-04-2015
Originally Posted by swb1964:
“What new technology is there for 2G?

I thought 2G was basically 2G and that was that?”

More efficient technology. Instead of a 2G base station being a large, heavy, power hungry unit with limited functionality (can't do EDGE), you can make it as simple as a card or two inside a much smaller unit that can also do 3G or 4G if you want to. Quite a cost saving when scaled to the entire country.

That's what EE has done, I believe - their 4G base stations also have 2G cards and they're replacing their old 2G network with this. It allows them to do EDGE if they want to, and I believe one of the touted benefits is better RF performance.
DevonBloke
30-04-2015
I believe they are 2G base stations with slots for 4G cards but same difference
They will all be EDGE eventually in fact all the 4G upgraded masts here now have EDGE.

Also I believe from what I can find out the new EDGE will be better performance due to better technology but also better compatibility with modern handsets (Some Orange EDGE masts down here haven't been upgraded since the were put up in 1996).
This is evident in some tests I have been doing (now I can finally force my iPhone to 2G only), where I am regularly getting around 150 - 200 Kbps from EDGE.

But yes, one of the main things will be a massive power saving and better RF performance as you say.

I also wonder if it will help with 3G to 2G handoff as I can find 2 places down here where there is perfectly usable 2G driving along (if my phone is forced to 2G), every time with no dropping of the call, yet if the call starts on 3G (which it always does) is will always without fail drop the call instead of handing off to 2G.
Redcoat
01-05-2015
At this rate, I can see operators shutting down their 3G networks before closing 2G. 3G is much more bandwidth hungry by default compared to 2G, and it could be argued that its spectrum could be better reframed for 4G in a few years time. OTOH 2G spectrum requirements are much more modest and can fit into smaller frequency caps with predictable coverage (no cell breathing) for legacy purposes for a few years more. The only problem is that TDMA can't really cope with co-channel the way CDMA & OFDM do.

Vodafone, O2 and EE still sell 2G only PAYG phones.
DevonBloke
01-05-2015
I've been saying this for ages and I now have a few believers
Leave a small amount of 1800 to 2G and put the rest over to 4G.
Once 4G is 99% and a good proportion of the user base are on it with VoLTE a massive load will be taken off 3G and 2G.
Gradually they can refarm 2100 to 4G (Band 1).
Users will then have a simple choice. Stick with 2G EDGE (which actually will be surprisingly usable and will also be 99%), or go to 4G.

In the medium term EE won't be turning off 2G since as has been said, the entire new network is based on it and don't forget, they haven't finished installing it yet and at the current rate I can see the last cells (probably Orange ones) being upgraded at the end of 2016..

My prediction for the not too distance future is...

3G turned off.
Basic 2G EDGE UK wide for legacy devices and M2M.
4G/4G+ on 800 / 1800 / 2100 / 2600.
swb1964
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by Everything Goes:
“There are very few 2G only phones being sold these days. O2 is the only network with a huge number of legacy customers. They have approx 50% smatrphone penetration. All the others are way ahead.”

So 50% of O2 customers are still on non-smartphones? That is way more than I would have predicted!

Do you have figures for the other three networks, just out of interest?
Katharine_Range
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by swb1964:
“I don't think it will happen as soon as 2020. I'll bet their are quite a lot of older users who have no interest in Smartphones, but wouldn't be without their mobile phone. Nor are they neccessarily light users, many OAPs are on their phones quite a bit, and many will be on high cost PAYG tariffs. If they are on bundles they probably won't use the data element, making them potentially quite profitable customers.

The networks won't want to replace lots of reasonably happy paying customers with unhappy ex ones.

Of course it will happen, but I'm not so sure about 2020. 2G phones are still being sold in reasonable numbers even now.

Is there such a thing as a 4G dumbphone?”

Why do we always have to let the elderly get in the way of the UK progressing?!?!
swb1964
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by Katharine_Range:
“Why do we always have to let the elderly get in the way of the UK progressing?!?! ”

Well it isn't just the elderly who use dumbphones. What about people who need the battery life of a basic phone? Even with all the bells and whistles turned off, my Galaxy battery doesn't last anywhere near as long as my Doro flip phone or even my semi-dumb Nokia 301.

I notice even now Tesco Mobile still offer both of these phones on 24 mobile contracts (although both are appallingly bad deals compared with the cost of buying them on PAYG and getting a SIM only deal)
d123
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by Everything Goes:
“There are very few 2G only phones being sold these days.”

Unfortunately there are still many 2G only phones sold, EE still have 5 or 6 models on sale, CPW have many as well.

It's going to be a while before they are phased out, it seems.
DevonBloke
01-05-2015
I'm telling you, they won't be phased out for ages.
EE are still building the 2G network right now! Spending billions.
I know corporations are stupid sometimes but they are hardly likely to be going to turn it off again any time soon are they.

Did no one see my prediction above that will of course come to fruition.... obviously!!
Hahahahaha
Stereo Steve
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by Katharine_Range:
“Why do we always have to let the elderly get in the way of the UK progressing?!?! ”

Because one day you'll be one.
d123
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by DevonBloke:
“I'm telling you, they won't be phased out for ages.
EE are still building the 2G network right now! Spending billions.
I know corporations are stupid sometimes but they are hardly likely to be going to turn it off again any time soon are they.

Did no one see my prediction above that will of course come to fruition.... obviously!!
Hahahahaha”

I'm agreeing with you, I suspect in 10 years time people will still be predicting its demise .
enapace
01-05-2015
I agree with you guys 3G is a useless technology compared to 2G or 4G which both have better benefits.
Everything Goes
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by swb1964:
“So 50% of O2 customers are still on non-smartphones? That is way more than I would have predicted!

Do you have figures for the other three networks, just out of interest?”

O2 52%
Vodafone 65.4%
EE +90% (estimated)
Three +95% (estimated)

http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...&postcount=229

http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...&postcount=226

http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...0&postcount=89
Everything Goes
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by Katharine_Range:
“Why do we always have to let the elderly get in the way of the UK progressing?!?! ”

The elderly go out and vote where as youngsters don't. The powers that be don't want to upset the old dears hence the continually pander to them. The tail wags the dog.
Stereo Steve
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by swb1964:
“So 50% of O2 customers are still on non-smartphones? That is way more than I would have predicted!

Do you have figures for the other three networks, just out of interest?”

I'm surprised it's not higher. Having a VOD / O2 Sim in a smartphone is (or at least has been) largely useless in vast areas of the UK for many years as they have ignored 3G. Where I live, 2G 900 is superior for calls to 1800 but there is simply no data on the Cornerstone networks. Even where you have a 3G900 mast, it doesn't work half the time.

Ask any taxi driver around the south west what their carphone is on and I bet it's VOD / O2 but they probably have a smartphone on EE/3 in their pocket. I bet this applies to huge swathes of the UK. I now people who have an old nokia in their pocket and have no interest in Twatter or Facetube, they just need the phone to ring. They are on VOD mostly.

The fact is that the 900 networks missed a huge trick by resting on their superior frequency laurels and allowed EE and 3 to become the networks of the smartphone.

What happens next is interesting. Personally I think that EE not prioritising 800 is a mistake. Time will tell.
Stereo Steve
01-05-2015
Originally Posted by Everything Goes:
“The elderly go out and vote where as youngsters don't. The powers that be don't want to upset the old dears hence the continually pander to them. The tail wags the dog.”

Let's hope Apple don't invent a 'whack off to charge' function for the iWatch or the youth of today will never get anything done.

Seriously, I'm not sure the govt at large has much influence in this, it's going to be mostly commercial, with some obvious considerations for emergency services etc.

When an 'elderly' paramedic pulls up to try and save 4 teenagers who have bent their Corsa around a tree, he probably cares more about a stable and reliable call than spunking 2gigs on a speed test.
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