Originally Posted by Denco1:
“I'm not suggesting that we don't have a 2G/3G network switch off, I'm just suggesting that by 2020 the networks won't have 100% of customers on 2G/3G or 2G/3G/4G phones, let alone VoLTE phones.”
You didn't have 100% of TV owners on digital TV at analogue switchoff either. It just has to be reduced to an insignificant level, and at some point the cost savings from the shutdown will outweigh the one time cost of sending out a few cheap phones or ignoring those who don't make any money for you (the "cheap phone in car for emergencies" type people)
If 2G only phones were removed from sale in a year or two I would bet that a very very large number of users will have 3G/4G/5G phones by 2020.
Even smartphones with 4G are becoming cheaper and cheaper, though still not "£10 Nokia" cheap.
Originally Posted by Denco1:
“And yes the digital switchover was massive because of the rebuild work required, but didn't Digital UK end up helping and subsidising the cost of new equipment more than originally expected? I don't think simply telling the last few percent to upgrade or loose service will be a very popular decision.”
Digital UK was mostly just a PR and publicity organisation, the investment and technical decision making would be from Ofcom/the broadcasters/Arqiva
If you try to wait for full adoption to happen you'll be waiting forever. You have to force the issue by setting deadlines and giving people time to switch, and then if they don't, they lose out. Obviously this requires some responsibility from the networks too - like not selling 2G only phones and then deciding to switch off the network a month later.
Popularity doesn't matter - the minority people with older phones will likely be the least profitable (as occasional users or on the cheapest contracts) and you're not going to keep a nationwide network running for eternity just for them.
Originally Posted by Denco1:
“Just take a look at DAB, how long have we be warned of a FM switch off, but we still have no set date partly because uptake of DAB radios is below expectations.”
That's also because it hasn't really been forced. Threats of switch off are not the same as set-in-stone dates. Plus the coverage is not there yet and there's still the issue of audio quality which will sort of need a switchover in itself, from DAB to DAB+ so we can use more efficient codecs. There's still no plan for smaller stations, although Ofcom has been seeing how cheaply you can run a very small multiplex with simple hardware