BB went downhill from the point when it became apparent that the voting element in the show was less important than the producer's view of the ratings and the manipulation became overt, adding contestants or even bringing back contestants after they were eliminated.

Since XF went the last mile to keep Cher in by changing the format, XF has been headed the same way.

Also, although The Voice hasn't hurt it directly, it has illustrated the simple fact that things could be different.

The Voice. That's probably what hurt it mainly. The fact that The Voice got a 12m peak for one of its episodes, and in its first series (of course, dropping dramatically after that episode) clearly says something. Of course, it will pick up for the final, but the highest non-final peak last year was 14.6m, compared to in 2010 when it was 17.7m.

If we take 10% off last year's final (both shows), we get:

9.82m (37.4%) and a peak of 10.89m.
11.79m (40.7%) and a peak of 13.74m (44.51%)

I think at this moment in time, that's how the final will rate. These are all the peaks & shares for all the finals so far:

2004- 9.9m
2005- 11.8m (48%)
2006- 12.6m (57%)
2007- 12.74m (55.1%)
2008- 14.59m (61.4%)
2009- 19.11m (61.9%)
2010- 19.44m (60.5%)
2011- 15.27m (49.5%) (exc +1) / 15.5m (50%) (inc +1)

Of course most of those are rounded. So apart from the first two (I doubt there would have been a 50% share with only 9m) all others have made it past a 50% share, even with 12m, but that is down to the total TV audience that night. For example, the shares show that only 23.1m were watching at the peak of the final in 2007. The ratings over the next few weeks will be interesting.

I think Mel B has XF AUS commitments.

Well, with Robbie on tomorrow night and it being 'halloween week', could there be a slight change in the figures?

I think with evenings become darker sooner, more people will be watching tv... however whether thats the XF is anther matter - I guess thats where the % audience share comes into things.The ratings could well rise but the dropped % share stay the same

It'd be aiming for at least a 40% share, a 50% is out of the question. Unbelievably it hasn't been above 40% on average at all this series. However, depending on the amount of people watching TV at the time of the final, it could manage it. We've seen 50% shares with just 12m (something you would see in the summer).

What do you expect for last night? It'll probably stay around the 8m mark, peak around 1-2m higher.

I would say 8 peak at 9, SCD would of beatten it again, me thinks.

Strictly averaged 9.6m, peaked at 10.8m.
The X Factor averaged 8.4m, including ITV1 +1.

So thats a further reduction with +1 taken out... things are not looking rosy in x factor land.

Not that good but I believe the ratings have usually dipped because of Halloween. Without +1 I have a feeling that will be below 8m unless the +1 audience isn't that large.

The peak was 9.4m (inc +1).

It could easily peak over 11m tonight (all results have done so) but that would still be 10% down on last year.

It's not halloween until Wednesday. Time to face facts, this show is dying on it's arse.

Dying on its arse? Hardly A ratings slide doesn't equate to dying on its arse, at least not until the numbers it starts to register are, you know, bad.

It's being beaten by Strictly EVERY week. This is a show that the X Factor was trouncing two years ago. Why is it that sone fans of the show can't accept that a lot of people are getting bored of it?

It's just boring now, I'm on the verge of switching off myself.

It really is on its last legs.

Wow, a TV show is getting beaten by the #1 show on TV every week. Must be dying. :yawn:

I'm not unable to accept that people are getting bored as I am too, I just think it's ridiculous that people are spouting that it's dying when it clearly isn't. It's still in the top 5 highest rated shows.

But X Factor used to be the #1 show on TV. I know all good things have to come to an end, but I never expected the ratings to fall as much as they have in such a short space of time.

People keep lowering the bar every time X Factor's ratings dip.

Next it will be: "Well, it's not the lowest rated show. It's the second lowest! A great success."

Personally, I'm not surprised. The series 7 figures were ridiculous and there was always going to be a big fall from there, especially after all the Katie Waissel stuff. They had a bad year last year which couldn't have come at a worse time because that along with the dip in ratings made it much easier to over-exaggerate the situation. This year things seem to have stabilised and are roughly on par with series 1-5. Hardly dying.

No, some people just aren't shouting that the show's such a flop because it isn't #1 any more.

It will probably take until everything changes next year for some people to admit what a disaster the last 2, and especially Barlow, have been.

Whether those changes manage to reverse fortunes though is another matter, although they will at least revive interest albeit temporarily.

For that interest to stick will depend purely on how well they play it. Which needs to be a lot better than this year or last year. Which has mainly consisted of shooting themselves in the foot at every opportunity, and giving people too much of what they don't like and not enough of what they do.

XF is practically a masochistic experience these days.

Indeed. I have wondered more than once if the producers actually want the show to fail.

I do think there is an element of that this year actually, especially the whole engineering of Gary's acts leaving to give us Grumpy Gary who will get increasingly worse each week until 'quitting' or being 'fired'. It's all being set-up as well in the papers.

They have their eyes on the 10th series next year already, this year is done, and what changes will be made to turn things round. If Cowell does come back, which isn't totally out of the question depending on where XF US ends up in the schedules next year, then it would all tie up quite well indeed.

Cowell back to save the show, sod off Barlow, now let's start again with people you know and liked. Then whatever controversy happens with the show again will be aimed at panto villain #1 rather than the show itself.

Cowell cannot come back unless they move the US show to another quarter, or they move the UK show, but it seems unlikely.

But he is not the only suitable judge for the show, and other shows judges, like Piers Morgan or the SCD judges have been pore than adequate.

It is arguable whether he really wants to find suitable or better replacement to himself, specially because he is not highly rated in the US anymore and may wish to retain his status in the UK.

Or perhaps he now sees the UK show as a burden, and wishes to concentrate on his US counterpart that is as more satisfying to his ego demands.