So I presume it'll stay around 8m until the semi-finals then rise a little bit. Surely we wouldn't see below 10m for the final.

Anyone who is good with calculations, what's the series average at the moment?

I think one of the problems is that X Factor Results show drove the ratings since 2009. The last two years have seen lacklustre stars perform and overload of ex XF acts.

In 2009, the first year of Sunday result shows, Saturday Nights were still hovering around 9million, but the results shows was above 10. Then in 2010, the results shows were getting 13m plus ratings, and over 10 million tuning in on Saturday Night.

They need to stop with constant promotion of ex acts on the results shows, and get some big stars in again.

People like Leona Lewis and Olly Murs, may be popular, but are not drawing in the viewers people like Lady Gaga and Black Eyed Peas would.

Haven't watched fixed factor for 3 weeks getting rid of talent over joke acts get rid of her

If it's hovered between 8 and 11 million this series then I think it'd be 9 and a half million?

I'll take a guess, judging by recent ratings, with semi final ratings and final ratings:

Semi Final Performances- 8.8m
Semi Final Results- 9.3m
Final Performance- 10.4m
Final Results- 10.8m

2009 and 2010 result shows did incredibly. I remember Lucie's elimination got around 14m overnight (15m officially) and was the highest ever.

did it beat scd?

Nope.

In fact, the highest rated results show was Paije's elimination which got 15.04m officially.

What ratings do we expect after last night's drama?

Average of 9.44m (33.3%) and 5-minute peak of 11.46m (38.5%). 9.6m and 11.7m including +1.

Well, the good side is, that peak is the highest this series excluding +1. Bad news is, it's 2m down from last year (the average), and 3m on the peak, and it's quite likely they'll drop further after what happened last night.

So even now, surely 10m is possible for the final?

Strange question. How are we supposed to know?

Final Projections:

-25.0%: 9.8m
-22.5%: 10.2m
-20.0%: 10.5m
-17.5%: 10.8m
-15.0%: 11.1m

Previous Finals:

2011: 13.1m
2010: 17.2m
2009: 15.6m
2008: 13.5m
2007: 11.7m
2006: 10.2m
2005: 9.3m
2004: 9.7m

All include +1 where applicable.

So it's basically guaranteed that the final will be the lowest rated since 2006. If you exclude +1 then it seems possible that it could be lower than that year.

But it won't be the lowest rated ever.

Overall, in overnight figures, X Factor 9 will be the 5th most watched behind series 7, 6, 8 and 5 but ahead of 2, 4, 3 and 1.

I think the final will make 10million.

I remember last year people saying the ratings were low but the result shows were still making 11-12million.

ITV can only dream of these figures again.

I can actually the viewing figures plummet (for real this time) this week.

Haven't they usually gone up after a 'controversial' decision, just because people are interested as to what'll happen next, plus Dan Wooton said there'll be a surprise...

I think the decline on last year so far has been around 25%?

The X Factor: 8.01m (33.1%)
* peak: 8.89m (36.8%) at 20:45

Who would have thought it'd be even more down at this stage of the competition? It's not making 10m at any point, the final will probably be the lowest since 2005/2006. The BGT final this year averaged 11.38m (exc +1) in the overnights, it probably won't even match that.

Out of interest did that peak at 20.45 just happen to be when Chris performed his first song?

Was Chris on at that time? If so yes, that's not a good sign...

Last night: Strictly 10.25m, X Factor 8.01m

Pretty much. I wonder what would happen once Chris is out (he definitely isn't liked by the audience).

I actually thought XF ratings would be down even more then that, tis going to be interesting to see what the final get's.

That is a massive gap

What ratings did Merlin get last night? it was on at the same time as XFactor